丙烯日报 | 2026-03-03 地缘冲突加剧，丙烯成本端支撑增强 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6593元/吨（+391），丙烯华东现货价6650元/吨（+100），丙烯华北现货价6620元/ 吨（+210），丙烯华东基差57元/吨（-291），丙烯山东基差27元/吨（-241）。丙烯开工率72%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR- 日本石脑油CFR203美元/吨（-4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR74美元/吨（-12），进口利润-335元/吨（-17），厂内库存44970 吨（-200）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率24%（+1.99%），生产利润-70元/吨（+90）；环氧丙烷开工率80%（+0%），生产利润-234 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率85%（-3%），生产利润627元/吨（+163）；辛醇开工率97%（-2%），生产利润-38元/吨（-51）； 丙烯酸开工率80%（-7%），生产利润579元/吨（+254）；丙烯腈开工率76%（+0%），生产利润-1149元/吨（-29）； 酚酮开工率88%（-1%），生产利润-681元/吨（+115）。 风险 伊朗地缘局势发展动态、油价大幅波 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term weak and volatile [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The peak of device maintenance has passed. Although there is a phased reduction in supply, the supply remains loose. Demand is mainly rigid, and it is difficult to see significant improvement. International oil prices have risen slightly, and the rise in the price of external propane has increased cost support and narrowed PDH profits. The supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remain loose, and attention should be paid to the impact of the cost side and the registration of warehouse receipts in South China [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract price, East China market price, and Shandong market price [5][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on propylene production profit and capacity utilization include the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [15][17][18] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Data on propylene import and export profit include the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on propylene downstream profit and capacity utilization include the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [65]