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丙烯日报:外盘丙烷价格回升,PDH利润缩窄-20251104
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 05:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term weak and volatile [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The peak of device maintenance has passed. Although there is a phased reduction in supply, the supply remains loose. Demand is mainly rigid, and it is difficult to see significant improvement. International oil prices have risen slightly, and the rise in the price of external propane has increased cost support and narrowed PDH profits. The supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remain loose, and attention should be paid to the impact of the cost side and the registration of warehouse receipts in South China [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract price, East China market price, and Shandong market price [5][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on propylene production profit and capacity utilization include the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [15][17][18] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Data on propylene import and export profit include the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on propylene downstream profit and capacity utilization include the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [65]