1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the possible repeated mention of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, weak coal prices, supply - demand changes in the spot market, the impact of downstream PP on PL, and the rebound of external propane prices leading to continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors include device overhauls in the industrial end driving up spot prices, while negative factors are the lack of significant negative feedback in PDH despite losses and the weak downstream demand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1232 and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 0.5581 [1]. - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices (PL2603, sell, 50%, entry range 6100 - 6200) and sell call options (PL2601C6000, sell, 25%, entry range 60 - 80) [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices (PL2603, buy, 25%, entry range 5700 - 5800) and sell put options (PL2601P5700, sell, 25%, entry range 50 - 70) [1]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly mentioned, but there is no actual progress, and coal prices are relatively weak recently [2]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. This week, supply decreased and demand increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and raising the overall spot price. In Shandong, after device overhauls and some downstream restarts, the spot price rebounded slightly from the low level [2]. - The main downstream product PP has sufficient supply. Recently, the compression of the PP - PL price has led to new lows in the PP end, suppressing the space for PL and causing a divergence between PL's futures and spot prices [2]. - The external propane price has rebounded, with the calculated cost at around 6200 - 6300 yuan/ton, and the calculated PDH profit is continuously in the red. Currently, there is no more feedback on overhauls [2]. 3.3 Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors: Device overhauls in the industrial end, such as those of Binhua, Haiwei, and Xintai, have led to a rebound in the spot price from the low level [3]. - Negative factors: Although PDH is in a loss state, there is still no significant negative feedback in the short term, and the supply end remains high; the PP downstream is weak, showing the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with high supply pressure and continuous new lows in the market, and most other downstream products are also in a loss state, with low acceptance of high - priced propylene [3][5]. 3.4 Industrial Data Summary - Upstream raw material prices: Brent crude oil closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel on November 25, 2025, down 0.83 dollars from the previous day and 2.46 dollars from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as WTI, MOPJ, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - Mid - stream propylene prices: On November 25, 2025, the propylene price in East China was 5945 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but up 30 yuan from the previous week; the price in Shandong was 6020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan from the previous day and 130 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Downstream prices: On November 25, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week; the price of polypropylene pellets was 6400 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Profits: The main refinery profit was 854.72 yuan/ton, and the MTO monomer profit was - 240.83 yuan/ton. Different production methods and products had different profit situations [6]. - Price spreads: Various price spreads such as PL01 - 02, PP01 - PL01, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include sufficient supply but weak demand in the main downstream PP and other weak downstream sectors, lacking upward momentum. Meanwhile, the cost of PDH has rapidly increased due to the rebound of propylene in the external market, providing short - term support, but the November CP price is expected to decline compared to October [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors are the rebound of external propylene prices providing cost support, good Sino - US talks, and government measures to address "involution - style" competition. The negative factors are the overall loose supply of propylene and the weak downstream PP market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of propylene is predicted to be between 6000 - 6400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1262 and a 3 - year historical percentage of 0.6969 [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short propylene futures (PL2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6400) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can long propylene futures (PL2601) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is 5800 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P5900) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.2 Industry Data Summary - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: On October 29, 2025, Brent crude was at 64.3 dollars/barrel, WTI at 60.36 dollars/barrel. There were various price changes in other upstream raw materials such as MOPJ, NAP, and propane [9]. - **Mid - stream Propylene Prices**: The price of FOB South Korea was 730 dollars/ton, CFR China was 745 dollars/ton. Domestic propylene prices in different regions also had different degrees of change, with the cheapest delivery product at 5985 yuan/ton [9]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of products like polypropylene powder, polypropylene granules, and other downstream products also had certain fluctuations. For example, polypropylene powder was 6470 yuan/ton on October 29, 2025 [9]. - **Profits**: Profits in the mid - upstream and downstream sectors showed different trends. For example, the main refinery profit was 512.62 yuan/ton, and the MTO monomer profit was - 225.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads, such as the spread between MOPJ and propylene, PP powder and propylene, etc. For example, the MOPJ - propylene spread was 1937.21 yuan/ton on October 29, 2025 [9].