丙烯产业风险管理日报 2025/09/25 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） 沈玮玮（F03140197） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 丙烯 | 6250-6600 | 0.0556 | 0.1666 | 【利空解读】 产业数据汇总 source： 同花顺,南华研究 丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为防止存货跌价损失，可根据企业库 存情况，逢高空配丙烯期货来锁定利 润 | PL2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 6500-6600 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本， 若现货价格上涨还可以锁定卖出价格 | PL2601C66 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term spot supply and demand of propylene are tightening due to the maintenance of some external devices, while the long - term devices will gradually resume production, and new devices from Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical are to be put into operation. Currently, the 01 contract is still relatively far away, and market participation is low [3]. - Bullish factors include the rising crude oil risk premium caused by the Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue, providing cost support, and the strong operation of overseas propane prices. In the Shandong market, the maintenance of Zhenhua's 750,000 - ton PDH, Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH, and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH has reduced the overall external supply, and the supply - demand situation is more tense than in August [4]. - Bearish factors include the addition of PP maintenance devices in Jinneng and Yulong this week, which will lead to some propylene external supply and narrow the supply - demand gap. The PP supply is at a high level, while downstream demand is limited, causing some enterprises to stop PP production and release propylene. The price difference between PP powder and propylene has shrunk to 165 yuan/ton, lower than the processing cost. There are rumors that OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6,250 - 6,600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0646, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.0625 [2]. 3.2 Propylene Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about propylene price decline (long spot exposure), they can short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) on rallies according to their inventory to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 6,500 - 6,600 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6700) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 100 - 120 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and hoping to purchase based on orders (short spot exposure), they can buy propylene futures (PL2601) on dips to lock in procurement costs through on - disk procurement, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 6,300 - 6,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P6000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the propylene price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 40 [2]. 3.3 Industrial Data Summary - **Upstream Prices**: On September 3, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $67.39/barrel, down $1.68 from the previous day and up $0.19 from the previous week; WTI crude oil was at $63.77/barrel, down $1.85 from the previous day and down $0.09 from the previous week. Other upstream prices also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: The mid - stream propylene prices in different regions and related price differences are presented. For example, the price in the Shandong market on September 3, 2025, was 6,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and up 70 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Downstream Prices**: The downstream product prices such as polypropylene powder, polypropylene granules, and epoxy propane also had corresponding price changes. For example, the price of polypropylene powder was 6,780 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Profits**: The profits of different production processes and products in the mid - upstream and downstream showed different trends. For example, the main refinery profit was 795.66 yuan/ton, down 30.27 yuan from August 27 [8]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between upstream and downstream products and different contracts are also provided. For example, the spread between PP01 and PL01 was 539 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 38 yuan from the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The overall market remains loose. In the Shandong market, the resumption of production at Shandong Tianhong and Zibo Xintai, along with the downstream PO maintenance at Wanhua Penglai, has increased the supply of propylene, weakening the spot price. Other markets have shown little change [3]. - There are maintenance plans for Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH in the second half of the month, and the PP line at Jingbo is expected to resume production in late August, narrowing the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market [4]. - The cost of crude oil has been falling for several days, and the price of external propane is under pressure at a high export level [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Propylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) at high prices with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 6600 - 6700 to lock in profits. Also, selling call options (PL2601C6800) with a 50% ratio in the range of 120 - 160 can collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short spot position), it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2601) at low prices with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 6250 - 6350 to lock in procurement costs. Selling put options (PL2601P6000) with a 25% ratio in the range of 50 - 60 can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the propylene price drops [2]. Industry Data Upstream Prices - Brent crude closed at $65.42, down $0.47 from the previous day and $0.69 from the previous week; WTI crude closed at $62, down $0.58 from the previous day and $1.08 from the previous week [5]. - Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed different degrees of change [5]. Mid - stream Prices - FOB South Korea remained at 745, unchanged from the previous day and up 2 from the previous week; FOB US was at 675.16, down 2.7558 from the previous day and the same from the previous week; CFR China remained at 775, unchanged from the previous day and down 3 from the previous week [5]. - Domestic mid - stream prices in regions like East China, Shandong, and Northeast also had corresponding changes [5]. Downstream Prices - Polypropylene powder was at 6870, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 from the previous week; polypropylene pellets were at 7000, down 25 from the previous day and the same from the previous week. Other downstream products also showed price fluctuations [5]. Profits - Main refinery profit was 832.62, down 106.23 from the previous record; MTO monomer profit was - 180.83, unchanged from the previous day and up 62.50 from the previous week. Different profit indicators in the mid - upstream and downstream showed various trends [5]. Price Spreads - PL01 - 02 was - 56, down 7 from the previous day and 3 from the previous week; PP01 - PL01 was 612, up 15 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. Different price spreads also had corresponding changes [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The core contradiction is that the shutdown of plants in the Shandong market has reduced the external supply of spot goods, leading to a significant increase in spot prices [3]. There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the 750,000 - ton PDH unit of Zhenhua in the Shandong market breaking down over the weekend, reducing the external supply by 2,000 tons per day and causing the spot market price to rise by 300 yuan/ton, and the planned maintenance of 900,000 - ton PDH units of Wanhua Penglai and Jinneng in the late - month, which will narrow the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market [4]. Bearish factors are the continuous decline of crude oil at the cost end and the price pressure of external propane exports at a high level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Propylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in propylene prices, for a long spot position, it is recommended to sell PL2601 futures at a ratio of 50% in the price range of 6600 - 6700 to lock in profits. Also, sell PL2601C6800 call options at a ratio of 50% in the range of 160 - 200 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PL2601 futures at a ratio of 25% in the price range of 6200 - 6300 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell PL2601P5800 put options at a ratio of 25% in the range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price if the propylene price falls [2]. Price and Spread Seasonality - There are seasonal charts of propylene market prices in Shandong and the East China region, propylene 01 - 02 and 02 - 03 month - spreads, and PP01 - PL01, PL01 - PG01, PL01 - 3MA01 spreads in 2025 [6][8][9].