丙烯产业风险管理日报 2025/11/20 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮 期货从业证号：F03140197 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 丙烯 | 5700-6200 | 0.121 | 0.5432 | source： 同花顺,南华研究 丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为防止存货跌价损失，可根据企业库 存情况，逢高空配丙烯期货来锁定利 | PL2603 | 卖出 | 50% | 6100-6200 | | | | | 润 | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include sufficient supply but weak demand in the main downstream PP and other weak downstream sectors, lacking upward momentum. Meanwhile, the cost of PDH has rapidly increased due to the rebound of propylene in the external market, providing short - term support, but the November CP price is expected to decline compared to October [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors are the rebound of external propylene prices providing cost support, good Sino - US talks, and government measures to address "involution - style" competition. The negative factors are the overall loose supply of propylene and the weak downstream PP market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of propylene is predicted to be between 6000 - 6400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1262 and a 3 - year historical percentage of 0.6969 [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short propylene futures (PL2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6400) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can long propylene futures (PL2601) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is 5800 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P5900) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.2 Industry Data Summary - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: On October 29, 2025, Brent crude was at 64.3 dollars/barrel, WTI at 60.36 dollars/barrel. There were various price changes in other upstream raw materials such as MOPJ, NAP, and propane [9]. - **Mid - stream Propylene Prices**: The price of FOB South Korea was 730 dollars/ton, CFR China was 745 dollars/ton. Domestic propylene prices in different regions also had different degrees of change, with the cheapest delivery product at 5985 yuan/ton [9]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of products like polypropylene powder, polypropylene granules, and other downstream products also had certain fluctuations. For example, polypropylene powder was 6470 yuan/ton on October 29, 2025 [9]. - **Profits**: Profits in the mid - upstream and downstream sectors showed different trends. For example, the main refinery profit was 512.62 yuan/ton, and the MTO monomer profit was - 225.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads, such as the spread between MOPJ and propylene, PP powder and propylene, etc. For example, the MOPJ - propylene spread was 1937.21 yuan/ton on October 29, 2025 [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the current trend of propylene include sufficient supply but insufficient demand in the main downstream PP, small price differences between PP powder, granules, and propylene, and low acceptance of high - priced propylene. Most downstream industries have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene. Also, the PDH cost has collapsed, with the CP October contract price dropping unexpectedly [3]. - The positive factor is that the cracking failure of Yulong has led to a slight reduction in the supply in the Shandong market [3]. - The negative factors are that after the decline of propane, the PDH profit has expanded, but propylene and PP cannot accept high profits, which exerts pressure. The spot market is also weak, with spot prices falling continuously, and high - priced products are still resisted [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Propylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6000 - 6400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 0.0797 and the current volatility's historical percentage (3 - year) at 0.537 [2]. Propylene Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, for a long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits, with a 50% hedging ratio and an advisable entry range of 6500 - 6600 for PL2601. Also, selling call options (PL2601C6600) to collect premiums can reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a 50% hedging ratio and an advisable entry range of 100 - 120 [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular inventory for procurement is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an advisable entry price of 6000 for PL2601. Selling put options (PL2601P5900) to collect premiums can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the propylene price drops, with a 25% hedging ratio and an advisable entry range of 40 - 60 [2]. Industrial Data Summarization - The report provides a large amount of data on upstream, mid - stream, and downstream prices, as well as profit margins and price differentials of propylene and related products from September 30, 2025, to October 13, 2025, including Brent, WTI, various raw material prices, propylene market prices in different regions, downstream product prices, and corresponding profit indicators [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include poor profit conditions in most downstream industries, leading to resistance to high - priced propylene. The market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors are cost support from strong overseas propane prices and some enterprise maintenance plans due to PDH profit losses; negative factors are the limited ability of the PP end to accept high - priced propylene, a weakening of the fundamentals this week, an expansion of the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market, and a decline in spot prices followed by low - level fluctuations [3][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6250 - 6600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0556, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.1666 [2]. - **Hedging Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) at high prices with a 50% hedging ratio in the 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton range. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6600) to collect premiums with a 50% ratio in the 100 - 120 yuan range [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy propylene futures (PL2601) at low prices with a 25% hedging ratio around 6300 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P6000) to collect premiums with a 25% ratio in the 30 - 40 yuan range [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Cost support from strong overseas propane prices, with the cost estimated by CP01 at 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have maintenance plans due to PDH profit losses [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The PP end has limited ability to accept high - priced propylene, and the PP - propylene price spread is still low. This week, the fundamentals weakened, the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market expanded, and spot prices declined and then fluctuated at a low level [6]. 3.3 Industry Data Summary - **Upstream Prices**: On September 23, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $67.17/barrel (up $1.16 from the previous day, down $0.86 from the previous week), WTI was at $63.65/barrel (up $1.31, down $0.18), etc. [7]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: The price of propylene in East China was 6350 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan from the previous day, down 100 yuan from the previous week), and in Shandong was 6485 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan, down 65 yuan) [7]. - **Downstream Prices**: Polypropylene powder was at 6710 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 60 yuan from the previous week), and polypropylene pellets were at 6775 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan, down 25 yuan) [7]. - **Profits**: Main refinery profit was 823.98 yuan/ton (down 98.7 yuan from a previous record), MTO monomer profit was - 216.67 yuan/ton (down 24.17 yuan from the previous day, down 33.33 yuan from the previous week), etc. [7]. - **Price Spreads**: The PP01 - PL01 spread was 515 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan from the previous day, down 10 yuan from the previous week), and the PL01 - 02 spread was - 35 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan, down 19 yuan) [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term spot supply and demand of propylene are tightening due to the maintenance of some external devices, while the long - term devices will gradually resume production, and new devices from Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical are to be put into operation. Currently, the 01 contract is still relatively far away, and market participation is low [3]. - Bullish factors include the rising crude oil risk premium caused by the Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue, providing cost support, and the strong operation of overseas propane prices. In the Shandong market, the maintenance of Zhenhua's 750,000 - ton PDH, Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH, and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH has reduced the overall external supply, and the supply - demand situation is more tense than in August [4]. - Bearish factors include the addition of PP maintenance devices in Jinneng and Yulong this week, which will lead to some propylene external supply and narrow the supply - demand gap. The PP supply is at a high level, while downstream demand is limited, causing some enterprises to stop PP production and release propylene. The price difference between PP powder and propylene has shrunk to 165 yuan/ton, lower than the processing cost. There are rumors that OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6,250 - 6,600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0646, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.0625 [2]. 3.2 Propylene Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about propylene price decline (long spot exposure), they can short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) on rallies according to their inventory to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 6,500 - 6,600 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6700) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 100 - 120 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and hoping to purchase based on orders (short spot exposure), they can buy propylene futures (PL2601) on dips to lock in procurement costs through on - disk procurement, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 6,300 - 6,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P6000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the propylene price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 40 [2]. 3.3 Industrial Data Summary - **Upstream Prices**: On September 3, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $67.39/barrel, down $1.68 from the previous day and up $0.19 from the previous week; WTI crude oil was at $63.77/barrel, down $1.85 from the previous day and down $0.09 from the previous week. Other upstream prices also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: The mid - stream propylene prices in different regions and related price differences are presented. For example, the price in the Shandong market on September 3, 2025, was 6,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and up 70 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Downstream Prices**: The downstream product prices such as polypropylene powder, polypropylene granules, and epoxy propane also had corresponding price changes. For example, the price of polypropylene powder was 6,780 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Profits**: The profits of different production processes and products in the mid - upstream and downstream showed different trends. For example, the main refinery profit was 795.66 yuan/ton, down 30.27 yuan from August 27 [8]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between upstream and downstream products and different contracts are also provided. For example, the spread between PP01 and PL01 was 539 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 38 yuan from the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The overall market remains loose. In the Shandong market, the resumption of production at Shandong Tianhong and Zibo Xintai, along with the downstream PO maintenance at Wanhua Penglai, has increased the supply of propylene, weakening the spot price. Other markets have shown little change [3]. - There are maintenance plans for Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH in the second half of the month, and the PP line at Jingbo is expected to resume production in late August, narrowing the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market [4]. - The cost of crude oil has been falling for several days, and the price of external propane is under pressure at a high export level [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Propylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) at high prices with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 6600 - 6700 to lock in profits. Also, selling call options (PL2601C6800) with a 50% ratio in the range of 120 - 160 can collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short spot position), it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2601) at low prices with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 6250 - 6350 to lock in procurement costs. Selling put options (PL2601P6000) with a 25% ratio in the range of 50 - 60 can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the propylene price drops [2]. Industry Data Upstream Prices - Brent crude closed at $65.42, down $0.47 from the previous day and $0.69 from the previous week; WTI crude closed at $62, down $0.58 from the previous day and $1.08 from the previous week [5]. - Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed different degrees of change [5]. Mid - stream Prices - FOB South Korea remained at 745, unchanged from the previous day and up 2 from the previous week; FOB US was at 675.16, down 2.7558 from the previous day and the same from the previous week; CFR China remained at 775, unchanged from the previous day and down 3 from the previous week [5]. - Domestic mid - stream prices in regions like East China, Shandong, and Northeast also had corresponding changes [5]. Downstream Prices - Polypropylene powder was at 6870, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 from the previous week; polypropylene pellets were at 7000, down 25 from the previous day and the same from the previous week. Other downstream products also showed price fluctuations [5]. Profits - Main refinery profit was 832.62, down 106.23 from the previous record; MTO monomer profit was - 180.83, unchanged from the previous day and up 62.50 from the previous week. Different profit indicators in the mid - upstream and downstream showed various trends [5]. Price Spreads - PL01 - 02 was - 56, down 7 from the previous day and 3 from the previous week; PP01 - PL01 was 612, up 15 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. Different price spreads also had corresponding changes [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The core contradiction is that the shutdown of plants in the Shandong market has reduced the external supply of spot goods, leading to a significant increase in spot prices [3]. There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the 750,000 - ton PDH unit of Zhenhua in the Shandong market breaking down over the weekend, reducing the external supply by 2,000 tons per day and causing the spot market price to rise by 300 yuan/ton, and the planned maintenance of 900,000 - ton PDH units of Wanhua Penglai and Jinneng in the late - month, which will narrow the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market [4]. Bearish factors are the continuous decline of crude oil at the cost end and the price pressure of external propane exports at a high level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Propylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in propylene prices, for a long spot position, it is recommended to sell PL2601 futures at a ratio of 50% in the price range of 6600 - 6700 to lock in profits. Also, sell PL2601C6800 call options at a ratio of 50% in the range of 160 - 200 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PL2601 futures at a ratio of 25% in the price range of 6200 - 6300 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell PL2601P5800 put options at a ratio of 25% in the range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price if the propylene price falls [2]. Price and Spread Seasonality - There are seasonal charts of propylene market prices in Shandong and the East China region, propylene 01 - 02 and 02 - 03 month - spreads, and PP01 - PL01, PL01 - PG01, PL01 - 3MA01 spreads in 2025 [6][8][9].