Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall downstream start - up of propylene increased month - on - month. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand has a rigid support but may be limited due to cost pressure. The cost side is volatile, and the future trend mainly depends on the cost end and downstream demand [1][2] - For investment strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6225 yuan/ton (-47), the East China spot price is 6430 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price is 6445 yuan/ton (+0). The East China basis is 205 yuan/ton (+47), and the Shandong basis is 220 yuan/ton (+47) [1] - Figures related to this section include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, 03 - 04 contract spread, PL03 - 05 contract spread, and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][6][15] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene production capacity utilization rate is 73% (+1%), the China CFR - Japan naphtha CFR is 208 US dollars/ton (-5), and the import profit is - 387 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Figures related to this section include China CFR - Japan naphtha CFR, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH production capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery production capacity utilization rate, South Korea FOB - China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][31] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder production capacity utilization rate is 26% (-5.74%) with a production profit of - 245 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane production capacity utilization rate is 71% (+1%) with a production profit of - 352 yuan/ton (+20); n - butanol production capacity utilization rate is 86% (+1%) with a production profit of 242 yuan/ton (-180); octanol production capacity utilization rate is 95% (+4%) with a production profit of 88 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid production capacity utilization rate is 84% (+2%) with a production profit of 235 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile production capacity utilization rate is 72% (+3%) with a production profit of - 1252 yuan/ton (+0); phenol - acetone production capacity utilization rate is 89% (+3%) with a production profit of - 716 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Figures related to this section include the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][38][53] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene in - plant inventory is 43330 tons (+2860) [1] - Figures related to this section include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][63]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; There is no recommendation for inter - period and inter - variety strategies [3] 2. Core View - The spot price of propylene is relatively strong, and the basis has strengthened significantly. PDH device maintenance has begun to be realized, and the supply - demand structure has improved slightly. However, due to the easing of geopolitical disturbances and the decline of oil prices from high levels, the short - term upward trend of the propylene market has slowed down. Attention should be paid to cost changes and the implementation of PDH device maintenance [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6035 yuan/ton (-15), the spot price in East China is 6325 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China is 6145 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in East China is 290 yuan/ton (+15), and the basis in Shandong is 110 yuan/ton (+15) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene operating rate is 75% (-1%), China propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 252 US dollars/ton (+3), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 80 US dollars/ton (+2), and the import profit is - 338 yuan/ton (+48) [1] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 32% (-5.84%), with a production profit of - 125 yuan/ton (-30); propylene oxide operating rate is 72% (-1%), with a production profit of 186 yuan/ton (+70); n - butanol operating rate is 87% (+4%), with a production profit of 628 yuan/ton (+100); octanol operating rate is 94% (+5%), with a production profit of 704 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 82% (-5%), with a production profit of 159 yuan/ton (+125); acrylonitrile operating rate is 78% (-1%), with a production profit of - 1465 yuan/ton (-50); phenol - acetone operating rate is 89% (+4%), with a production profit of - 919 yuan/ton (-90) [1] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 46,270 tons (+1,580) [1]