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山东丙烯市场调研报告
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:09
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The propylene market in Shandong has shifted from tight supply before 2016 to near - balance or even oversupply currently due to the high - speed commissioning of propylene plants, especially PDH and naphtha cracking plants [4][12][28]. - After the listing of propylene futures, the market mainly trades on strong macro - policy expectations. The "anti - involution" policy is expected to promote the rectification and elimination of old - fashioned plants, which may reduce propylene supply and have a positive impact, but the extent remains to be tracked [14]. - In the short term, the propylene market shows a weak consolidation. Supply pressure persists with expected increases in propylene circulation due to plant restarts and new capacity releases. Demand has some short - term support but may not be sustainable during the off - season. Cost support from rising oil prices is offset by supply - demand pressures, resulting in a downward - pressured price trend [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Purpose - Explore the impact of propylene futures listing on the industry and understand the supply - demand situation of the propylene market in Shandong [10][11]. 2. Research Conclusion - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Shandong's propylene production capacity exceeds 15 million tons, accounting for 21% of the national total, and the external sales volume accounts for 39%. It has changed from a supply - tight to a near - balanced or oversupplied market. There is a demand gap of nearly 600,000 tons, and it is a major propylene - importing province. Propylene flows in from the Northeast, Northwest, North, and Central China and flows out to East China [4][12][25]. - **Trading Mode**: Shandong is the national price benchmark for propylene, with earlier spot quotations. Contract sales in Shandong are less than 50%. Contracts are usually signed annually and settled monthly, while spot sales are full - payment locked - price. The flow of goods is determined by price differences, freight, and demand [4][12]. - **Cost - Profit**: The propane consumption of PDH plants is between 1.14 - 1.2, and the theoretical processing cost is between 1200 - 1500 yuan. The full cost of PDH - produced propylene is around 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton. Freight varies by transportation mode [4][15]. - **Inventory**: Inventory varies among enterprises. PDH enterprises generally have larger storage capacity and longer storage periods. During the research, enterprises reported low inventory and no obvious inventory pressure [4][15]. 3. Core Logic and Future Outlook - After the listing of propylene futures, the market is influenced by macro - policy expectations. The "anti - involution" policy may reduce supply, but the impact needs further observation. Currently, the market is in weak consolidation. Supply pressure exists due to plant restarts and new capacity, demand has short - term support but limited sustainability, and cost support is offset by supply - demand pressures [14]. 4. Specific Situations of Research Enterprises - **Enterprise A**: Total propylene capacity is 70,000 tons/year, using catalytic cracking. All products are sold externally. Current external sales are about 270 tons/day. The enterprise believes the market is oversupplied and focuses on PDH operations [15][16]. - **Enterprise B**: Total capacity is 355,000 tons/year, with 105,000 tons from catalytic cracking and 250,000 tons from PDH. One of the two gas - fractionation units is operating, with an output of about 75 tons/day. The PDH unit has been shut down for over three months [17]. - **Enterprise C**: Total capacity is 420,000 tons/year, with a 70% load on the mixed - alkane dehydrogenation unit. By - product hydrogen is sold externally. The acrylic acid unit is operating, and the propylene oxide unit is shut down due to profit issues [20]. - **Enterprise D**: Total capacity is 380,000 tons/year, with 80,000 tons from catalytic cracking and 300,000 tons from PDH. Only the gas - fractionation unit is operating, with an output of about 200 tons/day. The PDH unit is shut down [22]. - **Enterprise E**: Total capacity is 600,000 tons/year, using PDH. The PDH unit is operating at 90% load. The enterprise has a low - inventory strategy and is bearish on the market [24]. 5. Analysis of the Supply - Demand Pattern of Shandong Propylene - Shandong is a major propylene production and sales area, with a production capacity exceeding 15 million tons, accounting for 21% of the national total and an external sales volume accounting for 39%. There are regional differences within Shandong. There is a demand gap of nearly 600,000 tons, and the market has shifted from tight supply to near - balance or oversupply [25][27][28].
南华丙烯周报:情绪退却,回归宽松基本面-20250803
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 12:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The national propylene market price fluctuated slightly this period, with the Shandong market price at 6,205 yuan/ton as of Friday, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous Friday, and further dropping over the weekend [1][5]. - The cost side was volatile this period. Crude oil had significant fluctuations with mixed factors; propane FEI rose slightly during the week but overall showed a weak oscillation, and the far - month 0102 is a relatively peak season for propane; methanol and coal prices declined after the policy sentiment faded. Overall, cost disturbances increased [5]. - The supply side remained relatively loose this week. The operation rate of major refineries was at a high level, the load of local refineries increased, the operation rate of MTO units remained stable, and the operation rate of PDH decreased slightly due to the maintenance of some units [5]. - On the demand side, there were not many changes overall. The production of PP pellets remained at a high level, the operation rate of PP powder increased compared to before, the operation rate of propylene oxide increased due to improved profits, the operation rate of butanol increased due to the resumption of production at CNOOC Shell, and other downstream sectors had little change. In addition, in the Shandong region, due to the maintenance of some units, the supply decreased this period, while the demand increased slightly due to the resumption or increased load of some units, and the supply - demand gap decreased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Profit Data - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil closed at $69.52, down $2.26 from the previous day and up $1.13 from the previous week; WTI crude oil closed at $67.26, down $2.1 from the previous day and up $2.19 from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also had corresponding changes [8]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: FOB Korea was at $730, CFR China was at $765, etc. The prices in different regions in China, such as East China, Shandong, etc., also showed certain fluctuations [8]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of propylene oxide increased by 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the prices of other downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, etc., also had corresponding changes [1][3]. - **Profits**: The profit of major refineries was 976.96 yuan/ton, and the profit of local refineries was 225.17 yuan/ton. The profits of different production processes such as MTO, PDH, etc., also had different degrees of change [8][10]. 3.2 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The overall operation rate of propylene was 72.97% (- 0.86%), and the production was 1.1636 million tons (- 7,700 tons). The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55% (0.34%), the operation rate of independent refineries was 48.20% (+ 0.04%), the operation rate of steam cracking was 83.08% (+ 2.9%), the operation rate of PDH was 73.58% (- 1.72%), and the operation rate of MTO was 85.27% (+ 0.32%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of PP pellets was 76.94% (- 0.03%), and the production was 773,300 tons (- 300 tons); the operation rate of PP powder was 36.04% (- 2.95%), and the production was 65,000 tons (- 5,300 tons); the operation rate of propylene oxide was 72.87% (- 0.44%), and the production was 118,800 tons (- 700 tons). The operation rate of butanol increased to 96.29% (+ 8.63%) [3]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of propylene was 33,600 tons (+ 1,800 tons), and the inventory was generally moderately high [3]. - **Import and Export**: The price difference between China and South Korea has slightly narrowed recently but still remains open. South Korea had relatively more maintenance in July, and it is expected that the domestic imports will decrease slightly in July [4]. 3.3 Shandong Balance Sheet - The supply in the Shandong region decreased this week, and the demand increased. Dongming Petrochemical carried out maintenance on July 29, including 96,000 tons of MDH and 100,000 tons of catalytic cracking units; Jinhai's 210,000 - ton light hydrocarbon cracking unit was under maintenance on July 29, reducing the external supply. On the demand side, Dongming's 200,000 - ton PP unit was under maintenance, Jinneng's 450,000 - ton 3PP unit resumed production, and some units such as CNOOC Fine Chemical and Jinling Chemical increased their propylene oxide load slightly [6][8]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions - **Upstream Operation**: The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55%, up 0.34% from the previous week; the operation rate of local refineries was 48.2%, up 0.04% from the previous week. The operation rates of different production processes such as naphtha cracking, MTO, etc., also had corresponding changes [38]. - **Mid - stream Propylene**: Propylene production was 1.1636 million tons, down 13,800 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 72.97%, down 0.86% from the previous week; the in - plant inventory was 33,600 tons, up 1,800 tons from the previous week [38]. - **Downstream Products**: The production and operation rates of downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, propylene oxide, etc., also had corresponding changes. For example, the production of PP pellets was 773,300 tons, down 300 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 76.94%, down 0.03% from the previous week [38]. 3.5 Device Maintenance Situation - **MTO**: Many MTO units such as Cornell Chemical, Changzhou Changde, etc., are in a long - term shutdown or maintenance state [40]. - **PDH**: Many PDH units such as Hebei Haiwei, Jiangsu Sierbang 2, etc., are in a shutdown, maintenance, or planned maintenance state [41]. 3.6 Supply and Demand in South Korea and Japan - **South Korea**: South Korea's propylene production, domestic trade, and inventory all showed certain seasonal characteristics. It is expected that the production will decrease slightly in July and increase after the resumption of production in August [4][165][166]. - **Japan**: Japan's propylene production, sales, and inventory also showed certain seasonal characteristics [170].