丙烯日报 | 2026-01-22 现货交投尚可，短期跟随成本端波动 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5993元/吨（+30），丙烯华东现货价6325元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6170元/吨（+15）， 丙烯华东基差332元/吨（-30），丙烯山东基差177元/吨（-15）。丙烯开工率75%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR251美元/吨（+5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR75美元/吨（+3），进口利润-332元/吨（-38），厂内库存46270吨（+1580）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率32%（-5.84%），生产利润-170元/吨（-25）；环氧丙烷开工率72%（-1%），生产利润186 元/吨（+70）；正丁醇开工率87%（+4%），生产利润663元/吨（-9）；辛醇开工率94%（+5%），生产利润736元/吨（+40）； 丙烯酸开工率82%（-5%），生产利润159元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率78%（-1%），生产利润-1378元/吨（+92）；酚 酮开工率89%（+4%），生产利润-892元/吨（+27）。 市场分析 供应端，整体供应端趋紧，PDH装置停车信息持续 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; There is no recommendation for inter - period and inter - variety strategies [3] 2. Core View - The spot price of propylene is relatively strong, and the basis has strengthened significantly. PDH device maintenance has begun to be realized, and the supply - demand structure has improved slightly. However, due to the easing of geopolitical disturbances and the decline of oil prices from high levels, the short - term upward trend of the propylene market has slowed down. Attention should be paid to cost changes and the implementation of PDH device maintenance [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6035 yuan/ton (-15), the spot price in East China is 6325 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China is 6145 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in East China is 290 yuan/ton (+15), and the basis in Shandong is 110 yuan/ton (+15) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene operating rate is 75% (-1%), China propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 252 US dollars/ton (+3), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 80 US dollars/ton (+2), and the import profit is - 338 yuan/ton (+48) [1] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 32% (-5.84%), with a production profit of - 125 yuan/ton (-30); propylene oxide operating rate is 72% (-1%), with a production profit of 186 yuan/ton (+70); n - butanol operating rate is 87% (+4%), with a production profit of 628 yuan/ton (+100); octanol operating rate is 94% (+5%), with a production profit of 704 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 82% (-5%), with a production profit of 159 yuan/ton (+125); acrylonitrile operating rate is 78% (-1%), with a production profit of - 1465 yuan/ton (-50); phenol - acetone operating rate is 89% (+4%), with a production profit of - 919 yuan/ton (-90) [1] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 46,270 tons (+1,580) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot trading of propylene has continued to improve, and attention should be paid to the disturbances on the cost side [2][3]. - On the supply side, propylene production has remained at a high level, and the upstream start - up has steadily recovered. There is still no obvious phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance in the short term. In January, some PDH devices are expected to be overhauled, and the supply pressure in the propylene market may be alleviated periodically [3]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers enter the market at low prices for rigid - demand procurement. The spot trading of propylene has improved, and the overall start - up of PP powder has increased. The demand for propylene at the PP end is expected to rise. The profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The start - up of PO has declined slightly due to the reduction of some device loads. However, propylene is expected to rise further, which will continue to squeeze downstream profits, and the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3]. - The international oil price has rebounded slightly due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, and the disturbance of oil prices has increased. The CP official price of propane in January has risen more than expected, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. However, the rebound space is still limited under the limited improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and the implementation of PDH device overhauls [3]. - The strategy suggests waiting and seeing. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly in the short term, but the support is still limited. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly under the boost of sentiment, waiting for marginal device overhauls [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - This part may include figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, PL01 - 03 contract spreads, PL03 - 05 contract spreads, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][7][13]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Startup Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][24]. III. Propylene Downstream Profit and Startup Rate - It involves figures such as the production profit and startup rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [5][39][52]. IV. Propylene Inventory - This part includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][65].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of propylene remains at a high level, with stable and rising upstream operations. There is a short - term lack of obvious PDH loss - induced maintenance, but some PDH units are expected to be maintained in January, which may lead to a temporary shortage in the propylene market supply. The market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [4]. - Downstream device planned maintenance is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [4]. - The recent trend of international oil prices is weak, but geopolitical tensions are rising, which may increase oil - price fluctuations. Saudi Aramco has announced that the official CP price for January is $525/ton, a month - on - month increase of $30/ton, exceeding market expectations. The price of propane in the external market is expected to rise significantly, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. The market should pay attention to cost - side changes and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. In the short term, cost - side support has increased, but supply - demand drivers are limited, and the market may fluctuate within a range. Wait for the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance. For inter - period trading, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high. There is no suggestion for cross - variety trading [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Basis Strategy Analysis - The basis of propylene in the mainstream Shandong region against the PL2603 contract fluctuated widely in December. The basis strengthened in the early stage due to the divergence between the spot and futures trends of propylene, with the futures price continuously falling due to weak supply - demand expectations. The weakening of the basis in the later stage was mainly due to the boost in market sentiment and the recovery of cost - side support, which led to a rebound in the futures price and a structure where the futures price was higher than the spot price. The basis in East China also fluctuated widely between 50 and 300 [11]. - There is a strong expectation of PDH device maintenance in the first quarter, and the price of propane on the cost side is rising. In the short term, the basis may continue to fluctuate weakly. The basis is expected to be mainly weakly fluctuating, and for the inter - period spread, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high [11]. II. Propylene Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - period Spread No specific summary information other than the data sources and chart titles is provided in the given text. III. Propylene Supply - As of December 2025, China's monthly propylene production was 5.4575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.33%. The propylene operating rate was 75.00% (+0.89%), among which the operating rate of PDH - produced propylene was 76.36% (+1.36%), the operating rate of methanol - to - propylene was 87.81% (-0.51%), and the operating rate of major refineries was 75.11% (+0.00) [1]. - The expected new production capacity of 500,000 tons of BASF in Guangdong has been realized. The production pressure in the first quarter is relatively small, but 2026 is still a domestic propylene production cycle, with an expected annual new production capacity of 7.36 million tons, and the nominal production capacity growth rate is 9.3% (the actual production capacity growth rate weighted by the production time is about 4.4%), significantly lower than the production capacity growth rate in 2025 [1]. - In terms of existing device maintenance, some PDH devices are expected to stop in January. Currently, one PDH unit of Jinneng Chemical and the PDH device of Guangxi Hongyi are under maintenance. Dongming Petrochemical and Binhuaxin Materials will gradually resume external sales after restarting. The planned maintenance volume of existing PDH devices is still small. As the CP price rises unexpectedly and compresses PDH profits, the market's expectation of PDH device maintenance has increased, and the market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [2]. IV. Propylene Import and Export - In November, the propylene import volume was 142,825 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.40%, and the export volume was 2,740 tons, a year - on - year increase of 920.97% [3]. - The increase in the propylene import volume in November compared to the previous month and the decrease compared to the same period last year were mainly due to the end of maintenance of some Korean devices in November, which increased the available supply and led to a slight month - on - month increase in the import volume [3]. V. Propylene Downstream Demand - In terms of downstream new production, a 300,000 - ton/year PO device of Lianhong was newly put into production in December. There will be less downstream production in the first quarter of 2026, and the new downstream production capacity will mainly be realized in the third and fourth quarters. The demand support from the new downstream production capacity of propylene is limited in the short term [3]. - In terms of downstream existing operations, the planned maintenance of downstream devices is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3][4]. - In December, the monthly production of PP pellets was 355,630 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%; the monthly production of PP powder was 30,780 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the monthly production of propylene oxide was 59,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.90%; the monthly production of acrylic acid was 34,280 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.75%; the monthly production of acrylonitrile was 404,166 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.43%; the monthly production of octanol was 27,650 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.85%; the monthly production of n - butanol was 22,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.95%; the monthly production of phenol was 48,710 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% [2]. - The weekly operating rate of PP powder was 38% (+0.69%); the weekly operating rate of propylene oxide was 74% (-2%); the weekly operating rate of acrylic acid was 79.85% (+0.43%); the weekly operating rate of acrylonitrile was 78.33% (-1.95%); the weekly operating rate of octanol was 82% (-3%); the weekly operating rate of n - butanol was 79.87% (+2.09%); the weekly operating rate of phenol - acetone was 81% (+3%) [2]. VI. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene was 46,010 tons (-550), the in - plant inventory of PP powder was 30,050 tons (-7,116), and the in - plant inventory of acrylonitrile was 61,000 tons (-500). Currently, the in - plant inventory of propylene is still higher than the same period in previous years, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory before the increase in supply - side maintenance is realized. The pressure to reduce inventory of downstream PP is also relatively large, with the inventory of PP traders at a high level in the same period and the inventory of PP powder also relatively high in the same period [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market maintains a loose pattern, with the 03 contract expected to oscillate between 5,700 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The market is affected by a generally loose fundamental situation and the weak trend of PP. Although the supply - demand gap has improved compared to October, enterprise inventories remain high. The continuous decline of PP prices and the significant compression of its price difference with propylene also suppress the propylene market [2][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The "anti - involution" issue may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations, but there is no actual progress. The overall chemical sentiment was weak this week, with prices falling again after a slight rebound last week [2]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. Although the supply - demand difference changed little this week, spot prices remained stable due to the postponed restart of some devices. In the Shandong region, Hengtong restarted this week, and Binhua is expected to restart in mid - December, increasing the overall supply expectation [2]. - The main downstream product, PP, has sufficient supply. The price difference between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk recently, with some PP devices entering maintenance, but overall PP operation remains at a high level, providing demand support while also suppressing the propylene market [2]. - The price of external propane at a low level rebounded with crude oil, and the premium has strengthened significantly recently. The calculated cost is around 6,250 - 6,500 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit continues to show losses. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the profit, but there are currently no more maintenance plans [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating, with the PL03 price range between 5,700 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The overall trend remains weakly oscillating. In the short term, it gets some support from the significant increase in costs, but the upward potential is limited. The negative feedback from the PDH end should be monitored, and the market is regarded as weak until more negative feedback emerges [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to oscillate. This week, due to the postponed restart of production, spot prices remained stable, while the futures market was affected by the overall chemical sentiment and the weak PP price, causing the basis to strengthen [17]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Consider reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 3 spread when the price is high [17]. - **Hedge Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider widening the PP - PL spread when the price is low and wait and see; consider widening the PL/PG ratio and wait and see. The price difference between PP pellets and propylene is around 100 yuan/ton, and that between PP powder and propylene is around 600 yuan/ton in the spot market, and it has also compressed to around 440 yuan/ton in the futures market. One can enter the market when the price is low and pay attention to the maintenance situation of the PP end [17]. - **Recent Strategy Review** - The strategy of narrowing the PP01 - PL03 spread (take profit) was proposed on November 7 and took profit on November 20. Currently, wait and see for opportunities to enter the market to widen the spread. - Hold the reverse arbitrage of PL01 - 03, which was entered on December 5. Conduct range - bound operations on PL01 - 03, mainly focusing on reverse arbitrage [17]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished product inventories worried about propylene price drops, they can short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to their inventory to lock in profits. Sell PL2603 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 6,100 - 6,200 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options on PL2603C6200 to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 80 - 100 [18]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories that hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs. Buy PL2603 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options on PL2603P5700 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 100 - 120 [18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information** - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have no results, and there is still some distance from reaching an agreement, causing a slight increase in the crude oil market [23]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in December is 93% according to Polymarket [23]. - Spot prices are relatively stable [23]. - **Negative Information** Some of the currently shut - down PDH devices will gradually restart. If there is no more negative feedback, the supply side will remain loose [20]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held [24]. - The US October PCE price index will be released [24]. - The US FOMC interest rate decision will be announced [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow**: This week, the PL03 contract oscillated downward. The net positions of major profitable seats increased, the net positions of the top five long - position holders in the dragon - tiger list remained unchanged, the top five short - position holders significantly increased their positions, the net long positions of profitable seats slightly increased, the net long positions of foreign capital slightly decreased, and the net short positions of retail investors slightly increased [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The PL03 contract was generally weakly oscillating this week. The daily - line middle track still exerted pressure, and currently, there seems to be support around 5,800 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure** - This week, the basis of propylene 03 was 172 yuan/ton, an increase of 112 yuan/ton compared to last week. Spot prices remained stable while futures prices declined. The 01 - 03 calendar spread of propylene was + 126 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton compared to last week [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - Mid - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 593 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton), and that of Shandong local refineries was 232 yuan/ton (+ 59 yuan/ton). The cracking end has been relatively stable recently due to the resumption of production at Zhenhai [29]. - **Mid - stream Profit**: The propane cracking profit has significantly declined, reducing the economic viability of LPG cracking. The PDH profit based on FEI as the cost was - 350 yuan/ton (+ 80 yuan/ton), and that based on CP as the cost was - 505 yuan/ton (+ 47 yuan/ton). The PDH profit remains in a loss state [31]. - **Down - stream Profit** - The price difference between PP拉丝 and propylene is 100 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan/ton), and that between PP powder and propylene is 60 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan/ton), with the spread compressed to a low level [35]. - The profit of epoxy propane PO/SM is 1,365 yuan/ton (+ 126 yuan/ton), the HPPO profit is - 834 yuan/ton (+ 61 yuan/ton), and the chlorohydrin method profit is 178 yuan/ton (- 106 yuan/ton) [35]. - The acrylonitrile profit is - 1,189 yuan/ton (+ 58 yuan/ton), oscillating this week but with large overall losses [35]. - The acrylic acid profit is - 78 yuan/ton (- 18 yuan/ton), with the profit weakening, and attention should be paid to the subsequent operation situation [35]. - The butanol profit is + 182 yuan/ton (+ 657 yuan/ton), with a significant improvement in profit [35]. - The octanol profit is + 702 yuan/ton (+ 607 yuan/ton), with the profit recovering from a low level as the supply decreases [35]. - The phenol - acetone profit is - 990 yuan/ton (- 367 yuan/ton), with the profit weakening. Currently, PO, butanol, and octanol have some profits, while others are mostly in a loss state [35][36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has recently increased slightly, with CFR China at 745 US dollars (+ 10 US dollars) [45]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in the Shandong Market This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market increased, and spot prices slightly rose. The increase in supply mainly came from the resumption of production at Hengtong, and the increase in demand came from the resumption of production and increased operation of devices such as PO and acrylic acid. In the future, supply will slightly increase with the resumption of production at Binhua [47]. 5.2 Market Supply Side and Deduction This week, there were both start - ups and shut - downs. The overall propylene operation rate was 74.06% (- 0.06%), still at a high level [50]. 5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - **PP**: This week, the price difference between PP pellets and powder and propylene continued to shrink, and the overall operation rate declined, but there were not many maintenance plans. The price difference between PP powder and propylene has compressed to a low level, and maintenance has increased [62][70]. - **Epoxy Propane**: This week, the price of epoxy propane declined, the profit of the chlorohydrin method decreased, but the inventory was still in a destocking state. This week, Shandong Xinyue and Qixiang Tengda increased their operation rates, while Shandong Binhua, Zhonghai Jingxi, and Shandong Minxiang slightly decreased their operation rates, and the overall operation rate slightly increased [71]. - **Acrylonitrile**: There was little change [73]. - **Butanol and Octanol** - Ningxia Jiuhong restarted and increased its operation rate. The 450,000 - ton device of Tianjin Bohua is expected to start operation at the end of December, and the 140,000 - ton device of Jiangsu Huachang is expected to start operation in mid - to - late December [78][80]. - **Acrylic Acid**: Shanghai Huayi slightly decreased its operation rate, Wanhua slightly increased its operation rate, Binhai Chemical stopped for maintenance, and Qixiang Tengda recently restarted [84]. - **Phenol - Acetone**: Taihua Xingye is expected to conduct maintenance for about one and a half months [86]. - **Shandong Regional Demand**: Demand in the Shandong region increased this week. The increase mainly came from the resumption of production and increased operation of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward driving force of propylene is weak, but the downward range is also limited. In the absence of strong cost - driven or significant improvement in the demand side, intensified industry competition may put greater operating pressure on some high - cost process plants. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policy changes, the actual impact of winter energy demand on propane and coal prices, and unexpected changes in downstream demand [5][80]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Propylene Fundamental Situation 1.1 November Propylene Price Continued to Decline, Supply Maintained a Loose Pattern - In November, the price of the main propylene futures contract 2603 fell below 6,000 yuan, reaching a monthly low of 5,758 yuan/ton on November 24. Affected by weak cost, supply pressure, and sluggish demand, the propylene price was under continuous pressure, and the price center shifted downward [4][10]. - In October, propylene supply reached a new high. Domestic production was 5.602 million tons, an increase of 286,000 tons from September and 601,400 tons year - on - year. In November, multiple propylene plants restarted, while some plants began maintenance in mid - to - late November, expected to last until December or Q1 2026. The average monthly load increased by 0.22% to 78.67% compared to October, and the supply pressure remained, with the fundamentals expected to maintain a loose pattern [11]. - At the cost end, OPEC's production increase and suspension policies, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace framework, and sufficient propane supply led to an expected decline in oil prices and a drop in propane import prices. Coal prices were expected to remain stable due to winter demand [14][15][16]. 1.2 Supply Increase, Propylene Spot Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Inventory Remained High - After the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong in September and Guangxi Petrochemical in October, the domestic propylene production capacity reached 77.96 million tons. Multiple plants were scheduled for maintenance or restart, and the overall domestic propylene load was expected to remain high above 78%. As of November 28, the domestic propylene inventory in factories was 48,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [37]. 1.3 In October, Propylene Imports Declined under High Load - With the overall increase in domestic propylene load and increased supply pressure, propylene imports decreased. In October, imports were 133,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 75,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,200 tons. Exports were 1,900 tons. Weak downstream demand also contributed to the decline in imports [39]. 1.4 Poor Downstream Demand, Poor Overall Industry Profit Performance - In November, the prices of propylene downstream derivatives generally declined, with significant drops in polypropylene and acrylic acid prices. Downstream factories were more cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the industry's profitability remained poor. The demand for polypropylene was expected to weaken in December, while the price of propylene oxide rebounded [47]. Third Part: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations 3.1 Market Outlook - OPEC+ decided to maintain the existing oil production quota and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine increased supply concerns, and the rebound space for oil prices was limited. The cooling in some regions was expected to support propane prices, but the demand side recovery outlook remained pessimistic, with the low - level operation of polypropylene and poor profitability of most downstream derivatives difficult to improve in the short term [5][79]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Due to high inventory and high domestic propylene load, the upside space of propylene prices is limited. Short on rallies [7][81]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7][81]. - Options: Sell call options [7][81].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply-demand gap is narrowing, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] Core View - Upstream maintenance has increased, leading to a decline in propylene production. Meanwhile, downstream production resumption has led to an overall increase in downstream operations, narrowing the supply-demand gap of propylene and improving spot market trading. However, the expectation of a loose propylene supply-demand situation remains unchanged, and there is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals, so the market remains in a low-level oscillation. The supply-side reduction provides short-term support for prices, and the demand-side support for propylene has strengthened, but it may decline. The cost side of propylene has support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The main contract closing price of propylene is 5,881 yuan/ton (+74), the spot price of propylene in East China is 5,945 yuan/ton (+20), the spot price of propylene in North China is 5,925 yuan/ton (-15), the basis of propylene in East China is 64 yuan/ton (-54), and the basis of propylene in North China is 8 yuan/ton (-86) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rate of propylene is 88% (+14%), the CFR of Chinese propylene - CFR of Japanese naphtha is 173 US dollars/ton (+21), and the CFR of propylene - 1.2 CFR of propane is 59 US dollars/ton (+10) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit of propylene is -331 yuan/ton (-89) [1] 4. Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream - The capacity utilization rate of PP powder is 47% (+3.02%), and the production profit is -255 yuan/ton (-45); the capacity utilization rate of propylene oxide is 75% (+0%), and the production profit is 647 yuan/ton (+8); the capacity utilization rate of n-butanol is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is -286 yuan/ton (+9); the capacity utilization rate of octanol is 77% (+8%), and the production profit is -138 yuan/ton (+111); the capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid is 73% (-2%), and the production profit is 479 yuan/ton (-14); the capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile is 80% (+1%), and the production profit is -296 yuan/ton (+5); the capacity utilization rate of phenol-ketone is 79% (+12%), and the production profit is -415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in-plant inventory of propylene is 45,040 tons (-2,150) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The decline in oil prices has dragged down the trading atmosphere in the propylene spot market. The supply of propylene is expected to increase, while demand is mainly rigid due to price fluctuations and profit pressures. The cost - side support is weakening, and there is insufficient short - term upward drive. It is necessary to continue to monitor the impact of the cost side and the start - stop status of PDH plants [1][2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, conduct counter - arbitrage when PL01 - 02 is high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil major refinery capacity utilization rate [17][25][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The propylene market in Shandong has shifted from tight supply before 2016 to near - balance or even oversupply currently due to the high - speed commissioning of propylene plants, especially PDH and naphtha cracking plants [4][12][28]. - After the listing of propylene futures, the market mainly trades on strong macro - policy expectations. The "anti - involution" policy is expected to promote the rectification and elimination of old - fashioned plants, which may reduce propylene supply and have a positive impact, but the extent remains to be tracked [14]. - In the short term, the propylene market shows a weak consolidation. Supply pressure persists with expected increases in propylene circulation due to plant restarts and new capacity releases. Demand has some short - term support but may not be sustainable during the off - season. Cost support from rising oil prices is offset by supply - demand pressures, resulting in a downward - pressured price trend [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Purpose - Explore the impact of propylene futures listing on the industry and understand the supply - demand situation of the propylene market in Shandong [10][11]. 2. Research Conclusion - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Shandong's propylene production capacity exceeds 15 million tons, accounting for 21% of the national total, and the external sales volume accounts for 39%. It has changed from a supply - tight to a near - balanced or oversupplied market. There is a demand gap of nearly 600,000 tons, and it is a major propylene - importing province. Propylene flows in from the Northeast, Northwest, North, and Central China and flows out to East China [4][12][25]. - **Trading Mode**: Shandong is the national price benchmark for propylene, with earlier spot quotations. Contract sales in Shandong are less than 50%. Contracts are usually signed annually and settled monthly, while spot sales are full - payment locked - price. The flow of goods is determined by price differences, freight, and demand [4][12]. - **Cost - Profit**: The propane consumption of PDH plants is between 1.14 - 1.2, and the theoretical processing cost is between 1200 - 1500 yuan. The full cost of PDH - produced propylene is around 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton. Freight varies by transportation mode [4][15]. - **Inventory**: Inventory varies among enterprises. PDH enterprises generally have larger storage capacity and longer storage periods. During the research, enterprises reported low inventory and no obvious inventory pressure [4][15]. 3. Core Logic and Future Outlook - After the listing of propylene futures, the market is influenced by macro - policy expectations. The "anti - involution" policy may reduce supply, but the impact needs further observation. Currently, the market is in weak consolidation. Supply pressure exists due to plant restarts and new capacity, demand has short - term support but limited sustainability, and cost support is offset by supply - demand pressures [14]. 4. Specific Situations of Research Enterprises - **Enterprise A**: Total propylene capacity is 70,000 tons/year, using catalytic cracking. All products are sold externally. Current external sales are about 270 tons/day. The enterprise believes the market is oversupplied and focuses on PDH operations [15][16]. - **Enterprise B**: Total capacity is 355,000 tons/year, with 105,000 tons from catalytic cracking and 250,000 tons from PDH. One of the two gas - fractionation units is operating, with an output of about 75 tons/day. The PDH unit has been shut down for over three months [17]. - **Enterprise C**: Total capacity is 420,000 tons/year, with a 70% load on the mixed - alkane dehydrogenation unit. By - product hydrogen is sold externally. The acrylic acid unit is operating, and the propylene oxide unit is shut down due to profit issues [20]. - **Enterprise D**: Total capacity is 380,000 tons/year, with 80,000 tons from catalytic cracking and 300,000 tons from PDH. Only the gas - fractionation unit is operating, with an output of about 200 tons/day. The PDH unit is shut down [22]. - **Enterprise E**: Total capacity is 600,000 tons/year, using PDH. The PDH unit is operating at 90% load. The enterprise has a low - inventory strategy and is bearish on the market [24]. 5. Analysis of the Supply - Demand Pattern of Shandong Propylene - Shandong is a major propylene production and sales area, with a production capacity exceeding 15 million tons, accounting for 21% of the national total and an external sales volume accounting for 39%. There are regional differences within Shandong. There is a demand gap of nearly 600,000 tons, and the market has shifted from tight supply to near - balance or oversupply [25][27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The national propylene market price fluctuated slightly this period, with the Shandong market price at 6,205 yuan/ton as of Friday, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous Friday, and further dropping over the weekend [1][5]. - The cost side was volatile this period. Crude oil had significant fluctuations with mixed factors; propane FEI rose slightly during the week but overall showed a weak oscillation, and the far - month 0102 is a relatively peak season for propane; methanol and coal prices declined after the policy sentiment faded. Overall, cost disturbances increased [5]. - The supply side remained relatively loose this week. The operation rate of major refineries was at a high level, the load of local refineries increased, the operation rate of MTO units remained stable, and the operation rate of PDH decreased slightly due to the maintenance of some units [5]. - On the demand side, there were not many changes overall. The production of PP pellets remained at a high level, the operation rate of PP powder increased compared to before, the operation rate of propylene oxide increased due to improved profits, the operation rate of butanol increased due to the resumption of production at CNOOC Shell, and other downstream sectors had little change. In addition, in the Shandong region, due to the maintenance of some units, the supply decreased this period, while the demand increased slightly due to the resumption or increased load of some units, and the supply - demand gap decreased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Profit Data - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil closed at $69.52, down $2.26 from the previous day and up $1.13 from the previous week; WTI crude oil closed at $67.26, down $2.1 from the previous day and up $2.19 from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also had corresponding changes [8]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: FOB Korea was at $730, CFR China was at $765, etc. The prices in different regions in China, such as East China, Shandong, etc., also showed certain fluctuations [8]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of propylene oxide increased by 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the prices of other downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, etc., also had corresponding changes [1][3]. - **Profits**: The profit of major refineries was 976.96 yuan/ton, and the profit of local refineries was 225.17 yuan/ton. The profits of different production processes such as MTO, PDH, etc., also had different degrees of change [8][10]. 3.2 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The overall operation rate of propylene was 72.97% (- 0.86%), and the production was 1.1636 million tons (- 7,700 tons). The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55% (0.34%), the operation rate of independent refineries was 48.20% (+ 0.04%), the operation rate of steam cracking was 83.08% (+ 2.9%), the operation rate of PDH was 73.58% (- 1.72%), and the operation rate of MTO was 85.27% (+ 0.32%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of PP pellets was 76.94% (- 0.03%), and the production was 773,300 tons (- 300 tons); the operation rate of PP powder was 36.04% (- 2.95%), and the production was 65,000 tons (- 5,300 tons); the operation rate of propylene oxide was 72.87% (- 0.44%), and the production was 118,800 tons (- 700 tons). The operation rate of butanol increased to 96.29% (+ 8.63%) [3]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of propylene was 33,600 tons (+ 1,800 tons), and the inventory was generally moderately high [3]. - **Import and Export**: The price difference between China and South Korea has slightly narrowed recently but still remains open. South Korea had relatively more maintenance in July, and it is expected that the domestic imports will decrease slightly in July [4]. 3.3 Shandong Balance Sheet - The supply in the Shandong region decreased this week, and the demand increased. Dongming Petrochemical carried out maintenance on July 29, including 96,000 tons of MDH and 100,000 tons of catalytic cracking units; Jinhai's 210,000 - ton light hydrocarbon cracking unit was under maintenance on July 29, reducing the external supply. On the demand side, Dongming's 200,000 - ton PP unit was under maintenance, Jinneng's 450,000 - ton 3PP unit resumed production, and some units such as CNOOC Fine Chemical and Jinling Chemical increased their propylene oxide load slightly [6][8]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions - **Upstream Operation**: The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55%, up 0.34% from the previous week; the operation rate of local refineries was 48.2%, up 0.04% from the previous week. The operation rates of different production processes such as naphtha cracking, MTO, etc., also had corresponding changes [38]. - **Mid - stream Propylene**: Propylene production was 1.1636 million tons, down 13,800 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 72.97%, down 0.86% from the previous week; the in - plant inventory was 33,600 tons, up 1,800 tons from the previous week [38]. - **Downstream Products**: The production and operation rates of downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, propylene oxide, etc., also had corresponding changes. For example, the production of PP pellets was 773,300 tons, down 300 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 76.94%, down 0.03% from the previous week [38]. 3.5 Device Maintenance Situation - **MTO**: Many MTO units such as Cornell Chemical, Changzhou Changde, etc., are in a long - term shutdown or maintenance state [40]. - **PDH**: Many PDH units such as Hebei Haiwei, Jiangsu Sierbang 2, etc., are in a shutdown, maintenance, or planned maintenance state [41]. 3.6 Supply and Demand in South Korea and Japan - **South Korea**: South Korea's propylene production, domestic trade, and inventory all showed certain seasonal characteristics. It is expected that the production will decrease slightly in July and increase after the resumption of production in August [4][165][166]. - **Japan**: Japan's propylene production, sales, and inventory also showed certain seasonal characteristics [170].