Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; There is no recommendation for inter - period and inter - variety strategies [3] 2. Core View - The spot price of propylene is relatively strong, and the basis has strengthened significantly. PDH device maintenance has begun to be realized, and the supply - demand structure has improved slightly. However, due to the easing of geopolitical disturbances and the decline of oil prices from high levels, the short - term upward trend of the propylene market has slowed down. Attention should be paid to cost changes and the implementation of PDH device maintenance [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6035 yuan/ton (-15), the spot price in East China is 6325 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China is 6145 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in East China is 290 yuan/ton (+15), and the basis in Shandong is 110 yuan/ton (+15) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene operating rate is 75% (-1%), China propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 252 US dollars/ton (+3), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 80 US dollars/ton (+2), and the import profit is - 338 yuan/ton (+48) [1] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 32% (-5.84%), with a production profit of - 125 yuan/ton (-30); propylene oxide operating rate is 72% (-1%), with a production profit of 186 yuan/ton (+70); n - butanol operating rate is 87% (+4%), with a production profit of 628 yuan/ton (+100); octanol operating rate is 94% (+5%), with a production profit of 704 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 82% (-5%), with a production profit of 159 yuan/ton (+125); acrylonitrile operating rate is 78% (-1%), with a production profit of - 1465 yuan/ton (-50); phenol - acetone operating rate is 89% (+4%), with a production profit of - 919 yuan/ton (-90) [1] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 46,270 tons (+1,580) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure in the propylene market is expected to ease temporarily as PDH device shutdown information continues to be released and there are maintenance plans for some devices. The market is trading on the expectation of tightened supply due to device maintenance, awaiting the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in Q1 [2]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers are entering the market at low prices for essential purchases, and the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the demand follow - up after the propylene price rises to a high level due to profit compression [2]. - The cost side is supported by the rebound of international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the strong propane prices. With the marginal improvement in supply - demand and sentiment boost, the propylene price continues to be strong. Future focus should be on cost changes and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [2]. - The strategy suggests cautious bottom - fishing long hedging. The supply - demand structure has slightly improved, and the short - term market is expected to remain strong, awaiting the fulfillment of marginal device maintenance [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6082 yuan/ton (+68), the East China spot price is 6250 yuan/ton (+200), the North China spot price is 5995 yuan/ton (+25), the East China basis is 168 yuan/ton (+132), and the North China basis is - 154 yuan/ton (-79) [1]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 76% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 229 US dollars/ton (+32), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 65 US dollars/ton (+23), and the import profit is - 538 yuan/ton (-291) [1]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 37% (-1.19%), production profit is - 25 yuan/ton (+15); epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 47 yuan/ton (+68); n - butanol operating rate is 83% (+2%), production profit is 521 yuan/ton (+14); octanol operating rate is 89% (+7%), production profit is 712 yuan/ton (-18); acrylic acid operating rate is 87% (+4%), production profit is 38 yuan/ton (-142); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 1190 yuan/ton (-26); phenol - acetone operating rate is 86% (+5%), production profit is - 916 yuan/ton (-140) [1]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 44,690 tons (-3,100) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The end - year fundamentals of PP have limited support. The cost - side PDH profit remains low, and multiple PDH units in South China have maintenance expectations. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep PDH profit losses [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 was 6,484, a daily decline of 0.03%. The trading volume was 557,946, and the open - interest decreased by 8,586 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 204, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 52 [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,250, 6,280, and 6,350 yuan/ton respectively. The price in South China increased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The market was volatile. Some arbitrage resources could not be unwound. The sales pressure on the spot side was moderate, and traders were generally inclined to hold prices. The prices of some tight - supply grades increased slightly. End - year demand was difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying was questionable, and the warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The PP US dollar market price remained stable. Overseas suppliers were not enthusiastic about offering prices to China, and downstream buyers continued to make rigid purchases, with little improvement in trading [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices were strong. There was a valuation differentiation within olefins, and the internal and upstream profit - end valuations of PE were higher than those of PP [2]. - **Supply Side**: There was no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensified [2]. - **Demand Side**: New orders from downstream industries weakened, and downstream factories were still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot trading of propylene has improved, but the futures market remains under pressure. The supply of propylene remains high, with stable upstream production. There is a potential for a phased reduction in supply pressure in January due to planned PDH unit maintenance. On the demand side, downstream purchases have increased, leading to better spot trading. The demand for propylene from the PP sector is expected to rise, and the operating rates of some downstream products are expected to increase. However, the overall improvement in demand may be limited. The cost side is affected by geopolitical tensions in the international oil market and the increase in the official price of propane from Saudi Aramco, strengthening cost support. But with limited improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals, the futures market is likely to remain under pressure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the market may fluctuate within a range until the marginal unit maintenance is realized [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, and the spreads between different contracts (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05). The propylene main contract closed at 5821 yuan/ton (-14), the East China spot price was 5850 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price was 5775 yuan/ton (+45). The East China basis was 29 yuan/ton (-36), and the North China basis was - 154 yuan/ton (-79) [1][5][12] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene production profit and operating rate data involve multiple indicators such as the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, PDH production profit and capacity utilization, MTO production profit and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, and naphtha cracking production profit and crude oil refinery capacity utilization. The propylene operating rate was 75% (+0%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR was 212 dollars/ton (+6), and the import profit was - 310 yuan/ton (-2) [1][21][24] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - For propylene downstream products, data on production profit and operating rate are provided for various products. PP powder operating rate was 38% (+0.77%) with a production profit of - 25 yuan/ton (-45); epoxy propane operating rate was 74% (-1%) with a production profit of - 159 yuan/ton (-82); n - butanol operating rate was 81% (+1%) with a production profit of 458 yuan/ton (-27); octanol operating rate was 82% (-3%) with a production profit of 820 yuan/ton (-32); acrylic acid operating rate was 83% (+3%) with a production profit of 322 yuan/ton (+36); acrylonitrile operating rate was 78% (-2%) with a production profit of - 817 yuan/ton (-100); and phenol - acetone operating rate was 81% (+3%) with a production profit of - 876 yuan/ton (+0) [1][40][41] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes the factory inventory of propylene and PP powder. The propylene factory inventory was 47790 tons (+1780) [1][61][62]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of propylene remains at a high level, with stable and rising upstream operations. There is a short - term lack of obvious PDH loss - induced maintenance, but some PDH units are expected to be maintained in January, which may lead to a temporary shortage in the propylene market supply. The market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [4]. - Downstream device planned maintenance is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [4]. - The recent trend of international oil prices is weak, but geopolitical tensions are rising, which may increase oil - price fluctuations. Saudi Aramco has announced that the official CP price for January is $525/ton, a month - on - month increase of $30/ton, exceeding market expectations. The price of propane in the external market is expected to rise significantly, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. The market should pay attention to cost - side changes and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. In the short term, cost - side support has increased, but supply - demand drivers are limited, and the market may fluctuate within a range. Wait for the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance. For inter - period trading, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high. There is no suggestion for cross - variety trading [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Basis Strategy Analysis - The basis of propylene in the mainstream Shandong region against the PL2603 contract fluctuated widely in December. The basis strengthened in the early stage due to the divergence between the spot and futures trends of propylene, with the futures price continuously falling due to weak supply - demand expectations. The weakening of the basis in the later stage was mainly due to the boost in market sentiment and the recovery of cost - side support, which led to a rebound in the futures price and a structure where the futures price was higher than the spot price. The basis in East China also fluctuated widely between 50 and 300 [11]. - There is a strong expectation of PDH device maintenance in the first quarter, and the price of propane on the cost side is rising. In the short term, the basis may continue to fluctuate weakly. The basis is expected to be mainly weakly fluctuating, and for the inter - period spread, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high [11]. II. Propylene Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - period Spread No specific summary information other than the data sources and chart titles is provided in the given text. III. Propylene Supply - As of December 2025, China's monthly propylene production was 5.4575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.33%. The propylene operating rate was 75.00% (+0.89%), among which the operating rate of PDH - produced propylene was 76.36% (+1.36%), the operating rate of methanol - to - propylene was 87.81% (-0.51%), and the operating rate of major refineries was 75.11% (+0.00) [1]. - The expected new production capacity of 500,000 tons of BASF in Guangdong has been realized. The production pressure in the first quarter is relatively small, but 2026 is still a domestic propylene production cycle, with an expected annual new production capacity of 7.36 million tons, and the nominal production capacity growth rate is 9.3% (the actual production capacity growth rate weighted by the production time is about 4.4%), significantly lower than the production capacity growth rate in 2025 [1]. - In terms of existing device maintenance, some PDH devices are expected to stop in January. Currently, one PDH unit of Jinneng Chemical and the PDH device of Guangxi Hongyi are under maintenance. Dongming Petrochemical and Binhuaxin Materials will gradually resume external sales after restarting. The planned maintenance volume of existing PDH devices is still small. As the CP price rises unexpectedly and compresses PDH profits, the market's expectation of PDH device maintenance has increased, and the market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [2]. IV. Propylene Import and Export - In November, the propylene import volume was 142,825 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.40%, and the export volume was 2,740 tons, a year - on - year increase of 920.97% [3]. - The increase in the propylene import volume in November compared to the previous month and the decrease compared to the same period last year were mainly due to the end of maintenance of some Korean devices in November, which increased the available supply and led to a slight month - on - month increase in the import volume [3]. V. Propylene Downstream Demand - In terms of downstream new production, a 300,000 - ton/year PO device of Lianhong was newly put into production in December. There will be less downstream production in the first quarter of 2026, and the new downstream production capacity will mainly be realized in the third and fourth quarters. The demand support from the new downstream production capacity of propylene is limited in the short term [3]. - In terms of downstream existing operations, the planned maintenance of downstream devices is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3][4]. - In December, the monthly production of PP pellets was 355,630 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%; the monthly production of PP powder was 30,780 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the monthly production of propylene oxide was 59,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.90%; the monthly production of acrylic acid was 34,280 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.75%; the monthly production of acrylonitrile was 404,166 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.43%; the monthly production of octanol was 27,650 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.85%; the monthly production of n - butanol was 22,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.95%; the monthly production of phenol was 48,710 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% [2]. - The weekly operating rate of PP powder was 38% (+0.69%); the weekly operating rate of propylene oxide was 74% (-2%); the weekly operating rate of acrylic acid was 79.85% (+0.43%); the weekly operating rate of acrylonitrile was 78.33% (-1.95%); the weekly operating rate of octanol was 82% (-3%); the weekly operating rate of n - butanol was 79.87% (+2.09%); the weekly operating rate of phenol - acetone was 81% (+3%) [2]. VI. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene was 46,010 tons (-550), the in - plant inventory of PP powder was 30,050 tons (-7,116), and the in - plant inventory of acrylonitrile was 61,000 tons (-500). Currently, the in - plant inventory of propylene is still higher than the same period in previous years, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory before the increase in supply - side maintenance is realized. The pressure to reduce inventory of downstream PP is also relatively large, with the inventory of PP traders at a high level in the same period and the inventory of PP powder also relatively high in the same period [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of upstream PDH units and the resumption of work in downstream industries [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - On the supply side, with some PDH units restarting and some undergoing maintenance, the supply of propylene in Shandong is tightening again, and the expected shutdown of the PDH unit in East China supports the supply side, leading to a rebound in propylene spot prices. On the demand side, the high propylene price has narrowed the downstream profit margins, causing a decline in overall downstream开工率. Some downstream industries are less willing to purchase, which may restrict the upward space of propylene prices. On the cost side, there is an expectation of OPEC+ production increase, and the geopolitical situation is volatile, causing the crude oil price to fluctuate after a decline. The external propane price is firm recently, but its fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Relevant figures include the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization of the main crude oil refinery [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [33][37] 4. Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream Industries - Relevant figures include the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][40][54] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include the in - plant inventory of propylene and the in - plant inventory of PP powder [64][65]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propylene industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the start - up rate of PDH decreased month - on - month due to the maintenance of new units, and the reduction of propylene external sales volume supported the price in the short term. On the demand side, the start - up rates of propylene downstream industries showed a differentiated trend, with a slight improvement in short - term downstream demand, but the increase in propylene spot prices compressed downstream profits, which might suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the decline in crude oil prices weakened cost support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [7][10][12]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][20][30]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, the production profit and start - up rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [41][43][46]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The core view is that the civil LPG market continues to stabilize, and the support for the futures market has strengthened. The report presents detailed data on LPG futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, price spreads, and the operating rates of relevant industrial chains [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price of PG2507 was 4,090 with a daily increase of 0.69%, and the night - session closing price was 4,088 with a decrease of 0.05%. The closing price of PG2508 was 4,012 with a daily increase of 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 4,006 with a decrease of 0.15% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of PG2507 was 61,502, an increase of 3,242 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 75,989, a decrease of 2,008. The trading volume of PG2508 was 9,088, an increase of 1,409 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 32,811, an increase of 724 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 690, down from 738 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 760, down from 838 the previous day [1]. Industrial Chain Data - **Operating Rates**: The PDH operating rate this week was 61.2%, up from 58.0% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 55.4%, down from 56.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 42.2%, up from 41.0% last week [1]. Market Trends - **LPG Trend Intensity**: The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On May 26, 2025, the expected price of propane in the June Saudi CP was 593 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 568 USD/ton, down 3 USD/ton. The expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 560 USD/ton, up 1 USD/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 535 USD/ton, down 4 USD/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance, including濮阳市远东科技有限公司, 江苏延长中燃化学有限公司, etc., with some maintenance start - times dating back to 2023 and end - times yet to be determined [7]. - **Domestic LPG Refinery Maintenance Plans**: Many refineries have maintenance plans, such as 正和石化, 盘锦浩业, etc., with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times [9].