Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of upstream PDH units and the resumption of work in downstream industries [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - On the supply side, with some PDH units restarting and some undergoing maintenance, the supply of propylene in Shandong is tightening again, and the expected shutdown of the PDH unit in East China supports the supply side, leading to a rebound in propylene spot prices. On the demand side, the high propylene price has narrowed the downstream profit margins, causing a decline in overall downstream开工率. Some downstream industries are less willing to purchase, which may restrict the upward space of propylene prices. On the cost side, there is an expectation of OPEC+ production increase, and the geopolitical situation is volatile, causing the crude oil price to fluctuate after a decline. The external propane price is firm recently, but its fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Relevant figures include the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization of the main crude oil refinery [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [33][37] 4. Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream Industries - Relevant figures include the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][40][54] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include the in - plant inventory of propylene and the in - plant inventory of PP powder [64][65]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propylene industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the start - up rate of PDH decreased month - on - month due to the maintenance of new units, and the reduction of propylene external sales volume supported the price in the short term. On the demand side, the start - up rates of propylene downstream industries showed a differentiated trend, with a slight improvement in short - term downstream demand, but the increase in propylene spot prices compressed downstream profits, which might suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the decline in crude oil prices weakened cost support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [7][10][12]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][20][30]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, the production profit and start - up rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [41][43][46]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The core view is that the civil LPG market continues to stabilize, and the support for the futures market has strengthened. The report presents detailed data on LPG futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, price spreads, and the operating rates of relevant industrial chains [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price of PG2507 was 4,090 with a daily increase of 0.69%, and the night - session closing price was 4,088 with a decrease of 0.05%. The closing price of PG2508 was 4,012 with a daily increase of 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 4,006 with a decrease of 0.15% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of PG2507 was 61,502, an increase of 3,242 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 75,989, a decrease of 2,008. The trading volume of PG2508 was 9,088, an increase of 1,409 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 32,811, an increase of 724 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 690, down from 738 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 760, down from 838 the previous day [1]. Industrial Chain Data - **Operating Rates**: The PDH operating rate this week was 61.2%, up from 58.0% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 55.4%, down from 56.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 42.2%, up from 41.0% last week [1]. Market Trends - **LPG Trend Intensity**: The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On May 26, 2025, the expected price of propane in the June Saudi CP was 593 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 568 USD/ton, down 3 USD/ton. The expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 560 USD/ton, up 1 USD/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 535 USD/ton, down 4 USD/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance, including濮阳市远东科技有限公司, 江苏延长中燃化学有限公司, etc., with some maintenance start - times dating back to 2023 and end - times yet to be determined [7]. - **Domestic LPG Refinery Maintenance Plans**: Many refineries have maintenance plans, such as 正和石化, 盘锦浩业, etc., with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times [9].