丙烯日报 | 2025-09-10 供应端装置降负，丙烯现货反弹上行 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6402元/吨（-8），丙烯华东现货价6575元/吨（+25），丙烯华北现货价6625元/吨（+100）， 丙烯华东基差173元/吨（+33），丙烯华北基差223元/吨（+108）。丙烯开工率75%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR196美元/吨（+2），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR77美元/吨（+1），进口利润-185元/吨（-26），厂内库存37030吨（-2080）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率37%（-3.47%），生产利润-255元/吨（-100）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（+1%），生产利润 -315元/吨（+161）；正丁醇开工率86%（-1%），生产利润-120元/吨（-62）；辛醇开工率95%（+1%），生产利润8元/ 吨（-97）；丙烯酸开工率69%（+0%），生产利润257元/吨（-18）；丙烯腈开工率73%（-1%），生产利润-435元/吨（-100）； 酚酮开工率75%（-1%），生产利润-272元/吨（-25）。 市场分析 供应端，河北海伟、万华蓬莱近期重启 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propylene industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the start - up rate of PDH decreased month - on - month due to the maintenance of new units, and the reduction of propylene external sales volume supported the price in the short term. On the demand side, the start - up rates of propylene downstream industries showed a differentiated trend, with a slight improvement in short - term downstream demand, but the increase in propylene spot prices compressed downstream profits, which might suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the decline in crude oil prices weakened cost support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [7][10][12]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][20][30]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, the production profit and start - up rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [41][43][46]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 28 日 LPG：民用气继续企稳，盘面支撑走强 | | | 昨日收盘价 日涨幅 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 PG2507 4,090 0.69% 4,088 -0.05% PG2508 4,012 0.43% 4,006 -0.15% 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 PG2507 61,502 3242 75,989 -2008 PG2508 9,088 1409 32,811 724 广州国产气对07合约价差 广州进口气对07合约价差 PDH开工率 MTBE开工率 烷基化开工率 期 货 价 差 昨日价差 前日价差 690 738 760 838 产业链重要 价格数据 本 周 上 周 61.2% 58.0% 55.4% 56.1% 42.2% 41.0% 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 研 究 所 期货研究 图 3：中东丙烷升贴水 图 4：运费 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 2023/1 2023/2 2023/3 2023/4 2023/5 2023/6 2023/7 2023/8 2023/9 2023/10 ...