Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The spot supply and demand of propylene remain tight, and there is still a driving force on the cost side. The PDH device shutdown news has been gradually realized, and the short - term supply of the propylene spot market is tight. Although the downstream has rigid demand support, the demand follow - up may be limited due to profit compression. The cost side is volatile, and the propylene market is bullish in the short term [2][3] - It is recommended to cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging. The supply - demand structure is still tight, and the cost side and supply - demand fundamentals resonate. Coupled with the hot capital sentiment in the chemical sector, the short - term market may remain strong [4] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6248 yuan/ton (-72), the East China spot price of propylene is 6475 yuan/ton (+35), the North China spot price of propylene is 6405 yuan/ton (+55), the East China basis of propylene is 227 yuan/ton (+107), and the Shandong basis of propylene is 157 yuan/ton (+127) [2] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 71% (-4%), the production profit of PDH - made propylene, MTO - made propylene, and naphtha - cracked propylene is not directly given in a summarized form, and the import profit is - 426 yuan/ton (-24) [2] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder: The capacity utilization rate is 31% (-0.84%), and the production profit is - 305 yuan/ton (-55) [2] - Epoxy propane: The capacity utilization rate is 73% (+1%), and the production profit is - 288 yuan/ton (-4) [2] - N - butanol: The capacity utilization rate is 87% (+0%), and the production profit is 867 yuan/ton (+116) [2] - Octanol: The capacity utilization rate is 96% (+2%), and the production profit is 916 yuan/ton (+60) [2] - Acrylic acid: The capacity utilization rate is 82% (-1%), and the production profit is 203 yuan/ton (+25) [2] - Acrylonitrile: The capacity utilization rate is 75% (-3%), and the production profit is - 1131 yuan/ton (+44) [2] - Phenol - acetone: The capacity utilization rate is 86% (-4%), and the production profit is - 828 yuan/ton (-25) [2] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant inventory is 38980 tons (-7290) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector has recently shown signs of recovery, and the olefin sector, which was at the bottom, rebounded due to market sentiment. However, the supply - demand contradiction still restricts the rebound height. The supply of propylene remains high, and the external sales volume of propylene may continue to increase, while the demand improvement is limited. The cost support has strengthened recently, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH units in the future. For investment, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the supply - demand remains loose and the downstream support is weak, so the rebound height may be limited [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and price differences between different contracts. The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5758 yuan/ton (+126), the East China basis is 92 yuan/ton (-126), and the North China basis is -185 yuan/ton (-71) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene production profit and operating rate data involve multiple indicators. The propylene operating rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 200 US dollars/ton (-2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 41 US dollars/ton (-8), and the import profit is -395 yuan/ton (-75) [1] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - For propylene downstream products, the operating rate and production profit vary. For example, the PP powder operating rate is 37% (-2.62%) with a production profit of 25 yuan/ton (+105); the epoxy propane operating rate is 76% (+0%) with a production profit of -276 yuan/ton (-30); the n - butanol operating rate is 78% (+9%) with a production profit of 451 yuan/ton (+115); the octanol operating rate is 82% (+5%) with a production profit of 620 yuan/ton (+75); the acrylic acid operating rate is 79% (+0%) with a production profit of 372 yuan/ton (+0); the acrylonitrile operating rate is 81% (+0%) with a production profit of -352 yuan/ton (+114); the phenol - acetone operating rate is 76% (-4%) with a production profit of -902 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant inventory is 46560 tons (+600) [1]