丙烯日报 | 2026-01-28 现货供需仍偏紧，成本端驱动仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6248元/吨（-72），丙烯华东现货价6475元/吨（+35），丙烯华北现货价6405元/吨（+55）， 丙烯华东基差227元/吨（+107），丙烯山东基差157元/吨（+127）。丙烯开工率71%（-4%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石 脑油CFR252美元/吨（+7），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR83美元/吨（+11），进口利润-426元/吨（-24），厂内库存38980吨 （-7290）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率31%（-0.84%），生产利润-305元/吨（-55）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（+1%），生产利润-288 元/吨（-4）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润867元/吨（+116）；辛醇开工率96%（+2%），生产利润916元/吨 （+60）；丙烯酸开工率82%（-1%），生产利润203元/吨（+25）；丙烯腈开工率75%（-3%），生产利润-1131元/吨（+44）； 酚酮开工率86%（-4%），生产利润-828元/吨（-25）。 供应端，PDH装置停车消息逐步兑现，巨正源 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector has recently shown signs of recovery, and the olefin sector, which was at the bottom, rebounded due to market sentiment. However, the supply - demand contradiction still restricts the rebound height. The supply of propylene remains high, and the external sales volume of propylene may continue to increase, while the demand improvement is limited. The cost support has strengthened recently, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH units in the future. For investment, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the supply - demand remains loose and the downstream support is weak, so the rebound height may be limited [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and price differences between different contracts. The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5758 yuan/ton (+126), the East China basis is 92 yuan/ton (-126), and the North China basis is -185 yuan/ton (-71) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene production profit and operating rate data involve multiple indicators. The propylene operating rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 200 US dollars/ton (-2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 41 US dollars/ton (-8), and the import profit is -395 yuan/ton (-75) [1] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - For propylene downstream products, the operating rate and production profit vary. For example, the PP powder operating rate is 37% (-2.62%) with a production profit of 25 yuan/ton (+105); the epoxy propane operating rate is 76% (+0%) with a production profit of -276 yuan/ton (-30); the n - butanol operating rate is 78% (+9%) with a production profit of 451 yuan/ton (+115); the octanol operating rate is 82% (+5%) with a production profit of 620 yuan/ton (+75); the acrylic acid operating rate is 79% (+0%) with a production profit of 372 yuan/ton (+0); the acrylonitrile operating rate is 81% (+0%) with a production profit of -352 yuan/ton (+114); the phenol - acetone operating rate is 76% (-4%) with a production profit of -902 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant inventory is 46560 tons (+600) [1]