国庆假期期间，黄金维持强势上涨的走势，除了上周四收小阴线，其他交易日全都收阳。昨天黄金自开盘开始震荡上涨，到凌晨触及4059附近后受阻走跌， 日线收出一根阳线，上周五到目前日线已经4连阳上涨。 一、基本面 1、美国经济政策与美元走势 美联储降息预期强烈：9月会议记录显示多数决策者支持进一步宽松，市场预期10月底降息25个基点，12月再降息概率达78%，削弱美元吸引力——尽管10 月8日美元指数微涨0.27%至98.83，但整体走软趋势明显，而黄金以美元计价，美元疲软直接提升其相对价值。 美国政府停摆加剧不确定性：政府停摆导致官方经济数据缺失，投资者难以评估经济状况，转向黄金这一传统避险资产。 2、地缘政治与市场资金流向 3、今日关注 19:30，欧洲央行公布9月货币政策会议纪要； 20:30，美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储理事会主办的一场社区银行会议上做开场讲话（预先录制）； 20:35，美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话； 待定，美国至10月4日当周初请失业金人数、美国8月批发销售月率； 次日0:45，美联储理事巴尔就经济前景发表讲话。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金自8月20日起开启强势单边上涨行情。期间即便出现调整，也多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]