Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend during the National Day holiday, with four consecutive days of gains, despite a slight decline after reaching around 4059 [1] Group 1: Fundamentals - The Federal Reserve has strong expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated by the end of October and a 78% probability of another cut in December, which weakens the dollar's attractiveness [2] - The U.S. government shutdown has increased uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the lack of official economic data [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have previously supported gold prices, while central banks and ETFs have significantly increased their gold holdings, with global ETF inflows reaching $64 billion in 2025 and a record $17.3 billion in September alone [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 88, indicating an overbought condition, bullish sentiment remains strong, supported by multiple favorable factors including continued Fed easing and global economic uncertainty [4] - The daily moving averages indicate a strong bullish structure, with key support levels at approximately 3970 for the 5-day moving average and 3900 for the 10-day moving average [6] - The current price action suggests a potential adjustment phase, with a focus on the resistance level around 4059, while remaining cautious of further upward movement after any short-term corrections [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]