上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周三（2月25日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计105072千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 COMEX黄金小幅回落，盘中触及5280美元/盎司高位后转弱，在5180美元/盎司附近震荡。短线支撑主 要来自三方面：美国关税政策不确定性升温、美伊谈判反复以及中东地缘局势紧张。 美国最高法院2月20日裁定依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收的关税违法后，特朗普随即援 引《1974年贸易法》第122条，宣布对全球加征10%临时关税，并于21日表示将把多国关税上调至 15%，该措施已于美东时间2月24日零时01分生效；此外，美国政府23日还考虑以"国家安全"为由对约 六个行业加征新一轮关税。 与此同时，金价也面临压制因素：美国经济数据表现分化，美联储年内首次降息预期被推迟。综合来 看，黄金短期或以震荡偏强为主，需重点关注26日美伊日内瓦谈判、27日公布的1月PPI数据、下周非农 报告及中美互动进展。 沪金主力盘内震荡偏强，周三（2月25日）黄金期货开盘价1144.80元/克，截至目前最高1154.98元/克， 最低1134.00元/克。截止发稿报1151.06元/克，跌幅0.04%，成交 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on February 19, driven by ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which provided rebound momentum [1] - The strengthening U.S. dollar index and better-than-expected initial jobless claims data limited bullish sentiment, preventing gold from returning above the mid-range [1] - The outlook suggests a tendency for gold prices to rise, supported by the 30-day and 60-day moving averages, indicating a buying opportunity on dips [1] Group 2 - Gold prices opened at $4977.09 per ounce, hitting an intraday low of $4959.36 before fluctuating, reaching a high of $5022.08 during the U.S. trading session, and ultimately closing at $4996.35, with a daily range of $62.72 and a gain of $19.26, or 0.39% [3] - On February 20, gold opened with narrow fluctuations, facing resistance from the strengthening dollar index and technical barriers, while also having support from various moving averages and geopolitical factors [3] - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. December core PCE price index year-on-year, the initial estimate of the fourth quarter annualized GDP growth rate, and the final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for February, which could influence gold prices depending on whether the data is perceived as positive or negative [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that international gold prices have recovered above $5000 per ounce and are currently in a consolidation phase, with a notable resistance around $5100 [1][2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January exceeded expectations, with an increase of 130,000 jobs, leading to a downward pressure on gold prices as investors adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran conflicts, continue to provide support for gold prices despite the lack of resolution in negotiations [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold prices are facing resistance from the upper Bollinger Band, and the operational difficulty has increased due to the distance from both pressure and support levels [2] - The key resistance level for gold is identified at around $5140, with the potential for a pullback if this level is not breached [2] - Important support levels to monitor are at $5000 and $4960, which could influence future price movements [2]

周三亚洲早盘，美元兑日元延续昨日跌势，跌破154.00整数关口，最低触及153.32附近，目前汇率报153.42，较前一交易日下 跌0.93，跌幅0.6218%。截至发稿，汇价在154.03附近弱势震荡，多空双方观望等待晚间美国1月非农就业报告指引。 非农数据不仅反映美国就业市场状况，更是判断美联储未来货币政策的关键。数据疲软将强化降息预期，利空美元、利多日 元，美元兑日元可能进一步下行测试153.00下方支撑；数据强劲则缓解美国经济担忧，为美元提供短期支撑，推动汇价反弹缓 解下跌态势。 昨日纽约尾盘，美元兑日元大跌1.01%，收报154.30，单日跌幅显著。此轮下跌核心是美国经济数据不及预期：美国12月零售 销售月率录得0%增长，远低于预期0.4%，较前月0.6%的增长明显回落，且同比增长2.4%低于当月消费者价格指数2.7%的同比 涨幅，反映实际消费萎缩。这一表现加剧市场对美国经济复苏乏力的担忧，打击美元多头信心，推动美元兑日元下行。 日元走势获得多重支撑，压制美元兑日元汇率。日本执政联盟在近期大选中获胜，市场关注其后续财政及汇率举措，日本财务 省官员口头干预言论也对日元形成支撑。市场对美联储降息预期升温 ...

短期来看，美元兑瑞郎大概率维持震荡下行的弱势格局。虽然技术指标显示汇价处于超卖区域，存在技 术性反弹的需求，但大趋势的逆转尚需时日。投资者需密切关注瑞士央行的干预动态以及美国关键数据 的指引。在历史性的低点面前，市场情绪极度敏感，任何风吹草动都可能引发剧烈波动。对于交易者而 言，当前局势下，"顺势而为"或许是最为明智的选择，切勿盲目抄底，以免陷入"接飞刀"的困境。 2026年2月11日，外汇市场风云突变，美元兑瑞士法郎(USD/CHF)延续断崖式下跌，盘中一度重挫近 1%，最低触及0.7660水平，创下2011年以来的15年历史新低。截至发稿，汇价徘徊在0.7665附近，市场 情绪被避险资金的单向涌入与美瑞货币政策的巨大背离彻底点燃。这一历史性低点不仅标志着瑞郎的极 度强势，更折射出全球资本在不确定性加剧背景下，对传统避险资产的疯狂追逐。 反观美元，可谓内忧外患。美联储内部关于降息节奏的分歧日益加剧，部分官员甚至面临法律诉讼威 胁，央行独立性遭受质疑，严重打击了市场信心。美元指数整体呈现疲软态势，兑一篮子货币持续走 低。对于美元多头而言，唯一的救命稻草便是即将公布的美国经济数据。若非农就业数据能超预期强 劲， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the previous sharp rise and fall in the precious metals market, the volatility tends to narrow. Short - term COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at $5000 per ounce, and COMEX silver at $80 per ounce. However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices. It is recommended that investors control risks and hold light positions during the holiday [55] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Price Trends - COMEX gold closed at $4332.1 per ounce on December 31, 2025, reached a high of $5626.8 on January 29, a low of $4423.2 on February 2, and closed at $5084.20 on February 9. COMEX silver closed at $70.98 per ounce on December 31, 2025, reached a high of $121.785 on January 30, a low of $63.9 on February 6, and closed at $83.05 on February 9 [4] - Shanghai gold closed at 977.56 yuan per gram on December 31, 2025, reached a high of 1258.72 yuan per gram on January 29, a low of 1005.4 yuan per gram on February 2, and closed at 1121.22 yuan per gram on February 10. Shanghai silver closed at 17074 yuan per kilogram on December 31, 2025, reached a high of 32382 yuan per kilogram on January 30, a low of 17900 yuan per kilogram on February 6, and closed at 20284 yuan per kilogram on February 10 [7] 3.2 Gold Supply - In 2025, the global total gold supply was 5002.31 tons, with recycled gold supply at 1404.33 tons. China's domestic raw - material gold production was 381.339 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.097 tons or 1.09%. Imported raw - material gold production was 170.681 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.817 tons or 8.81%. The total gold production from domestic and imported raw materials was 552.020 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.914 tons or 3.35% [10] 3.3 Gold Demand - In 2025, the global total gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand as the core driving force. The total global gold investment demand rose to 2175 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84%. Global gold ETFs had a net increase of 801 tons, and the demand for physical gold (bars and coins) reached 1374 tons, with China and India accounting for over 50% of this demand. Jewelry demand was 1638 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2%, and industrial demand was 322.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13] - In 2025, China's gold consumption was 950.096 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57%. Gold jewelry consumption was 363.836 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.61%; bars and coins consumption was 504.238 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.14%; industrial and other uses of gold were 82.022 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32% [13] 3.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - From 2022 - 2024, global central banks increased their gold reserves by over 1000 tons each year, more than twice the average level from 2015 - 2019. By 2024, the proportion of central bank gold holdings in total demand had risen to nearly 25% (from 12% in 2015 - 2019). In 2025, global central bank net gold purchases were 863.25 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21% compared to 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, central banks increased their gold reserves by 230.25 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.2% but a 5.6% increase from the third quarter. Emerging market central banks led by China accelerated the de - dollarization of their reserves and continued to increase their gold holdings [16] 3.5 Gold and Silver Inventories - In 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased from about 15 tons at the beginning of the year to about 100 tons at the end of the year, reaching 104 tons on February 9. COMEX gold inventory was about 21.9 million ounces at the beginning of 2025, reached a high of about 45 million ounces in April, and then gradually declined to 36.26 million ounces (1128 tons) at the end of the year, and 35.29 million ounces on February 9 [18] - SHFE silver inventory decreased from over 1400 tons at the beginning of 2025 to about 519 tons on November 21, then fluctuated, and was 35 tons on February 9. COMEX silver inventory was a little over 300 million ounces at the beginning of 2025, reached nearly 500 million ounces in April, and then gradually declined to about 450 million ounces (about 14,000 tons) at the end of the year, and 390 million ounces (12,100 tons) on February 9 [23] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory was slightly more than 1200 tons at the beginning of 2025, reached a high of 1768 tons in early April, and then declined to 494 tons on January 30 and 450 tons on February 6 [27] 3.6 US Economic Data - In December 2025, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since March 2021 [32] - In December 2025, the US unemployment rate was 4.4%, lower than 4.6% in November. Non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The total employment increase for the year was 584,000, the weakest since the pandemic [35] - In December 2025, US JOLTs job openings were 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020. The non - farm job opening rate (seasonally adjusted) was 3.9% in December [37] - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index rebounded for two consecutive months from a low. In January 2026, it was 56.4, up from 52.9 in December 2025 [40] - In January 2026, the University of Michigan 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.0%, down from 4.2% previously, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.3%, up from 3.2% previously [43] - In January 2026, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.6, returning to the expansion range after 10 consecutive months below 50. The ISM services PMI was 53.8, remaining above the boom - bust line for eight consecutive months [46] 3.7 Fed Interest Rate Expectations - On January 28, 2026, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. According to the CME "FedWatch" on February 9, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in March was 17.7%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 82.3% [50] 3.8 Factors Affecting Gold Prices - The US dollar exchange rate is a factor determining gold prices, but no detailed analysis is provided in the report [52] 3.9 Precious Metals Market Outlook - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by President Trump on January 30 triggered a precious metals market sell - off, but the main reason was the large number of profit - taking positions after the previous continuous rise. However, due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, the sell - off may not be sustainable. After the sharp rise and fall, the volatility of precious metals tends to narrow, but there is still a possibility of sharp fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday [55]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown a strong performance against the US dollar (USD), driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance, a weakening USD index, and improved risk sentiment [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The Reserve Bank of Australia's strong position, as stated by Governor Michele Bullock, indicates a need to maintain tight monetary policy due to constrained economic capacity, with potential for further interest rate hikes [1] - The market's shift in expectations from rate cuts to maintaining or increasing rates has widened the interest rate differential between Australia and the US, supporting the AUD [1] - Weak US employment data and easing geopolitical tensions have diminished the USD's appeal as a safe haven, leading to a capital flow towards commodity currencies like the AUD [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart for AUD/USD shows a bullish arrangement, with the price stabilizing above the 20-day moving average, indicating strong upward momentum [2] - Key resistance levels are identified between 0.7094 and 0.7100, with a potential challenge to 0.7120 if these levels are breached; support is noted at 0.7010-0.7015 [2] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is highlighted as a critical variable that could influence short-term exchange rate movements [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term bullish trend for the AUD is expected to continue, but upward movement will depend on the interplay between Australian interest rate expectations and US economic data [2] - A weak non-farm payroll report could allow the AUD to surpass 0.71, while stronger-than-expected US data may trigger a pullback [2] - The current rise in the AUD reflects a deeper logic of global monetary policy divergence, suggesting that while investors may benefit from appreciation, they should remain cautious of high volatility and data-driven fluctuations [2]

金价周一延续涨势，纽约期金升破每盎司5100美元关口，投资者正等待关键的美国经济与通胀数据，以 获取有关降息路径的更多线索。 三菱日联金融集团的Soojin Kim表示："市场关注点正转向即将公布的 美国劳动力与通胀数据，以寻找货币政策走向的信号，同时也持续审视美联储内部的制度性动态，这些 因素仍在影响贵金属的市场情绪。" ...

除上述报告外，投资者还将关注周二发布的12月零售销售数据，以及周四发布的当周首次申领失业金人 数。本周美联储多位官员也将密集发表讲话，理事克里斯托弗・沃勒和斯蒂芬・米兰定于周一亮相发 言。 责任编辑：李肇孚 新一周开盘，美国国债收益率走高，投资者静待包括推迟发布的1月就业报告在内的一系列经济数据出 炉。 10年期美国国债收益率上涨3个基点，报4.236%；30年期美国国债收益率上涨逾3个基点，报4.889%；2 年期美国国债收益率上涨逾1个基点，报3.506%。 新一周开盘，美国国债收益率走高，投资者静待包括推迟发布的1月就业报告在内的一系列经济数据出 炉。 10年期美国国债收益率上涨3个基点，报4.236%；30年期美国国债收益率上涨逾3个基点，报4.889%；2 年期美国国债收益率上涨逾1个基点，报3.506%。 1个基点等于0.01%，且债券收益率与价格呈反向变动关系。 投资者本周将迎来一系列经济数据的密集发布，其中多项数据因美国联邦政府部分停摆而推迟公布。这 其中包括原定于上周五发布的1月非农就业报告，美国劳工统计局现定于周三上午发布该报告。 据道琼斯调查的经济学家预测，1月美国非农就业人口或新增6万 ...

2026/2/9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货贵金属周报 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 2025-01-02 2025-02-02 2025-03-02 2025-04-02 2025-05-02 2025-06-02 2025-07-02 2025-08-02 2025-09-02 2025-10-02 2025-11-02 2025-12-02 2026-01-02 2026-02-02 美联储新一任主席沃什就任后的鹰派预期升温，美国初 请失业金人数激增，黄金价格反弹。截至上周五，美黄 金报收4989美元/盎司，周内上涨1.7%，关注上方压力 位5050，下方支撑位4750。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 37.000 ...