从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 研 究 院 货 金 融 市场情绪乐观，铜价再创新高 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 期 研 究 院 临近圣诞节假期，外盘交易清淡，市场波动加大。AI板块信心恢复。外媒传闻已久的中国央行信用修复政策落地， 市场情绪延续乐观。日内美元下跌，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。铜价直线拉升大涨，再创历史新高。沪铜上涨，伦 铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报94320，现货报93930，沪铜午后拉升大涨，现货较期货贴水-390点。今日现货基差贴水 -195点，现货成交不佳。LME现货转为升水5美元，外盘现货需求较好。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高，伦铜库存稳 定，沪铜库存小幅上升，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率小幅上涨，洋山铜溢价下降至42美元，国内现货需求一般。铜 价伦沪比下降至7.87，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1391点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘，市场乐观。 弘 业 今日伦铜大涨再创历史新高，在11960美元附近运行。沪铜上涨再创历史新高，收于94320.沪铜成交持仓均上升， 市场情绪乐观。现货方面，国 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level and may rise with copper prices. In the short term, aluminum prices will continue to be strong, while in the medium term, they may face certain pressure due to insufficient spot demand. The market should mainly focus on whether Shanghai aluminum fluctuates with copper prices and the situation of spot demand [3][4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs - **Market Environment**: Near the Christmas holiday, overseas trading is light, market volatility increases, the AI sector's confidence recovers, and China's central bank's credit repair policy has been implemented. The market sentiment remains optimistic. The US dollar falls, and non - ferrous metals continue to be strong, with all prices rising [3]. - **Aluminum Price Performance**: LME copper and Shanghai copper have reached record highs. Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum have all increased. Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,220, and the spot price was 21,930, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 290 points. This week, Shanghai aluminum rose, and the spot discount widened to - 190 yuan. The LME spot discount slightly expanded to - 40 US dollars [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: This week, China's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the alumina inventory also decreased. The aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slightly increased, and the LME inventory slightly decreased [3]. - **Exchange Rate and Ratio**: This week, the RMB exchange rate was stable with a slight increase, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices significantly decreased to 7.54, indicating that the domestic market's performance was weaker than the overseas market [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Today, US crude oil rose sharply, and LME aluminum slightly increased, trading around 2959 US dollars. Shanghai aluminum slightly increased, closing at 22,220, with a strong technical form. Both trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum increased, and market sentiment was optimistic [4]. - **Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring**: From December 16th to 22nd, the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable, the spot premium/discount gradually deepened, the LME aluminum futures - spot price difference fluctuated, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of the main contract gradually decreased [5].