截至收盘，创业板中盘200指数下跌0.3%，创业板成长指数下跌0.5%，创业板指数下跌0.7%。 中泰证券表示，展望后市，春节前行情整体仍具备上行空间，短期仍有逢低布局机会。当前阶段，制约市场的主要风险因素已较前期明显弱化，风险偏好有 望维持较高水平。从外部环境看，前期市场对全球流动性预期收紧以及美股高估值AI板块回调的担忧有所缓解。从国内环境看，由于今年春节时点偏晚， 春节后两会召开时间较近，当前市场对于消费政策的乐观预期在两会前处于"不可证伪"期，有利于维持整体较高的风险偏好水平。 每日经济新闻 ...

研 究 院 货 金 融 铝价高位震荡，可能随铜价上涨 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 | | | | 铝市场指标监测 | | | 院 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | LME铝-期现价 | 研 | 究 主力合约沪伦 | | | | 人民币汇率 | 现货升贴水 | 融 | 差 | 比 | | | | | 金 | | | | | | 12月16日 | 7.0363 货 | -120 | | -44 | 7.61 | | | 12月17日 业 | 期 7.0400 | -130 | | -43 | 7.59 | | 弘 | 12月18日 | 7.0334 | -170 | | -48 | 7.57 | | | 12月19日 | 7.0336 | -160 | | -44 | 7.58 | | | 12月22日 | 7.0355 | -190 | | -40 | 7.54 | 研 究 院 临近圣诞节假期，外盘交易清淡，市场波动加大。AI板块信心恢 ...

截至2025年11月28日 13:22，中证可转债及可交换债券指数(931078)上涨0.42%。可转债ETF(511380)上涨0.49%，最新价报13.36元。拉长时间看，截至2025年 11月27日，可转债ETF近半年累计上涨11.37%。 华泰固收发布2026年REITs市场展望称，明年REITs市场趋势性机会有限，基本面分化或将更明显，投资策略应回归价值逻辑，建议精选基本面稳健、估值 合理的优质品种。低利率环境下，REITs作为多元化配置的重要工具，其在大类资产配置中的价值将进一步凸显。一级市场方面，发行规模预计将稳步增 长，扩募持续推进，投资人打新将回归理性，一级报价或应给二级市场留出缓冲空间。 展望后市，正股层面，近期在国内基本面仍弱修复、区域政治扰动、AI板块波动加大等因素影响下，短期仍需静待权益市场企稳，中长期慢牛行情仍大概 率延续。估值层面，新券发行节奏偏缓，供需矛盾仍存，上周可转债ETF份额逆势增加，止盈情绪或有所缓解，预计转债估值仍在高位震荡。 规模方面，可转债ETF最新规模达568.00亿元。（数据来源：Wind） 资金流入方面，可转债ETF最新资金净流出534.72万元。拉长时间看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of experienced fund managers who can navigate through bull and bear cycles to generate long-term returns for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Profile - Hu Song, a veteran fund manager with over 20 years in finance and 14 years of investment experience, is highlighted as a rare example of a value investor in the current A-share market [2]. - Under Hu Song's management, the Guotai Jinpeng Blue Chip Fund has achieved a return of 75.63% since September 25, 2020, with an annualized return of 11.87%, outperforming its benchmark and peer average [2][3]. - The Guotai Jinsheng Fund, launched at a market low in February 2024, has seen a performance increase of 50.73% this year, significantly surpassing the performance of the CSI 300 Index [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Hu Song's investment strategy focuses on "margin of safety" and emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis over mere price observation [3][4]. - He employs a bottom-up stock selection approach while also considering macroeconomic factors, adjusting the investment portfolio based on fundamental changes [3][4]. - The selection criteria include a preference for stocks with sustainable competitive advantages and reasonable valuations, particularly those with high Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) [4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Performance - Hu Song prioritizes risk-return balance and actively manages drawdown control through diversified industry allocation and dynamic adjustments [5][6]. - The Guotai Jinpeng Blue Chip Fund has achieved nearly 60% positive returns over the past three years, with a maximum drawdown significantly lower than the peer average [6][7]. - The fund's top ten holdings are diversified across various sectors, with no single holding exceeding 8% of the total portfolio, reflecting a balanced investment style [7][8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Hu Song remains optimistic about the market, citing structural transformations at the economic cycle's bottom and positive developments in the technology sector [9]. - He identifies potential growth areas in AI, new energy, industrial metals, and technology sectors, while also acknowledging the risks associated with trade and geopolitical uncertainties [9]. - The article suggests that investors may benefit from selecting experienced fund managers like Hu Song, who can navigate market fluctuations effectively [9].

Group 1 - The market is currently under the shadow of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, leading to weakened economic data and increased risk aversion, with gold prices holding above $4,000 [1][2] - Gold prices rose to $4,002 per ounce, supported by safe-haven buying and a 68% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as consumer confidence in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level since mid-2022 [1][2] - The World Gold Council reported a net inflow of 54.9 tons into gold ETFs in October, indicating a significant return of institutional funds [1] Group 2 - The euro gained some strength against the dollar, with the EUR/USD rising to around 1.1560, despite a decrease in Germany's trade surplus to €15.3 billion, reflecting ongoing economic weakness in the Eurozone [2] - The U.S. stock market faced pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 200 points, marking a three-week low, as consumer confidence weakened and the AI sector experienced volatility [2] - The ongoing government shutdown, now in its 38th day, has led to the suspension of certain social welfare programs, impacting low-income groups and contributing to cautious investor sentiment [2] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by high uncertainty due to the government shutdown, weakening consumer confidence, and rising corporate layoffs, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and safe-haven demand are supporting gold prices [3] - Short-term focus will be on the progress of government reopening and upcoming CPI data, which may influence the direction of the dollar and gold [3] - Investors are advised to monitor macro policy signals and data changes that could affect global risk appetite, while maintaining flexible multi-asset allocation and position management strategies [3]

Market Overview - Global markets are experiencing a significant downturn, with Asian markets leading the decline. The South Korean stock market fell by 2.4%, the Nikkei index dropped by 1.7%, and the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.8% [2]. European markets also faced losses, with France's CAC 40 down by 1.3% and Germany's DAX down by 1.6% [2]. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures recorded the largest single-day drop since October 10, when Trump threatened 100% tariffs [2]. Market Sentiment - The recent market decline is characterized as a "headless drop," not triggered by a single news event but rather by accumulated negative sentiment [2]. Several Federal Reserve officials made conflicting statements, leading to increased uncertainty among investors who had previously anticipated a rate cut in December [2]. This uncertainty has prompted a defensive stance among investors, resulting in a withdrawal from the market [2]. Expert Warnings - Prominent figures in finance have issued warnings about the market's valuation. At a high-profile financial summit in Hong Kong, several Wall Street leaders reached a rare consensus, cautioning that the stock market could decline by more than 10% in the next 12 to 24 months [2]. Mike Gitlin, CEO of Capital Group, which manages $3 trillion in assets, noted that most investors view the current U.S. stock market as "between reasonable and overpriced," with few considering it "cheap" [2]. Market Risks - Ted Pick from Morgan Stanley echoed similar sentiments, stating that the market has risen too much and is now facing risks from policy errors and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel, remarked that the most extreme market behaviors often occur at the peaks of bull markets and the troughs of bear markets, suggesting that the current market is deep into a bull phase [3]. Upcoming Earnings Reports - Attention is turning to upcoming earnings reports from major companies. If AMD's earnings report is interpreted negatively by the market, it could indicate a shift to a defensive investment mode. Conversely, if AMD performs well and boosts the AI sector, it may lead to a temporary rebound in the market [3].

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of maintaining rational optimism in investment, especially during market fluctuations [1][2][3] - Historical trends in the A-share market indicate that rational investors often find valuable opportunities during extreme market conditions, leading to significant returns [3] - The investment philosophy suggests that understanding economic principles, industry trends, and company valuations is crucial for long-term success [3] Group 2 - The article highlights that successful investors are distinguished by their ability to see opportunities in crises and maintain composure during market exuberance [3] - It notes that the sentiment in the market oscillates between excessive optimism and pessimism, but ultimately, stock prices are driven by the intrinsic value of companies [2][3] - The narrative reinforces that a cautious yet optimistic approach, grounded in solid fundamental analysis, is essential for achieving long-term investment success [2][3]

Core Insights - The total number of stock ETFs increased by over 3.7 billion shares, with the Hong Kong stock market ETFs being the main attraction for capital inflow [1][2] - Despite the overall market decline, specific sectors like the non-bank financial sector and innovative drug ETFs in Hong Kong saw significant capital inflows [3][4] - Broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of over 9.5 billion yuan, with major outflows from the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF [5][6] Summary by Category ETF Market Performance - The total scale of stock ETFs in the market reached 4.22 trillion yuan, with an increase of 3.703 billion shares on the previous day [1] - The overall net outflow of funds from the market was 1.07 billion yuan, primarily due to significant outflows from broad-based ETFs [1][4] Capital Inflows - The non-bank financial sector attracted over 3 billion yuan in net purchases, with the Hong Kong non-bank ETF receiving 921 million yuan, leading its category [2][3] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong continued to attract capital, with the largest innovative drug ETF seeing a net inflow of over 1.1 billion yuan [3] Capital Outflows - Broad-based ETFs saw a net outflow of 9.539 billion yuan, with the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF each experiencing outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [5][6] - Other sectors such as the sci-tech chip ETF and computer ETF also faced significant outflows, each exceeding 200 million yuan [5][6] Sector Performance - The securities company index saw a net inflow of 2.034 billion yuan, with a total inflow of over 8 billion yuan in the past five days [1][3] - The solid-state battery sector showed strong performance, with the battery ETF experiencing a price increase of 2.04% and a net inflow of over 1.4 billion yuan [3] Market Outlook - Analysts from Bosera Fund and Guotai Fund expressed optimism about the equity market, citing favorable macroeconomic conditions and potential structural opportunities despite recent market adjustments [7][12]

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market saw an increase of over 3.7 billion shares despite a decline in the overall stock market, indicating a shift in investor interest towards ETFs, particularly in the Hong Kong market [2][4]. Market Performance - The total scale of the stock ETF market reached 4.22 trillion yuan, with a net outflow of 10.7 billion yuan overall, primarily from broad-based ETFs [4]. - The industry-themed ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs attracted significant inflows, with net inflows of 5.445 billion yuan and 3.367 billion yuan respectively [4]. Fund Flow Analysis - The top inflow ETFs included the Hong Kong Securities ETF with a net inflow of 1.021 billion yuan and the Securities ETF with 984 million yuan [5]. - Non-bank sectors attracted over 3 billion yuan in net buying, with the Hong Kong non-bank ETF receiving 921 million yuan [5][6]. Sector Performance - The securities company index saw a net inflow of 2.034 billion yuan, with over 8 billion yuan flowing into the securities company index over the past five days [4]. - The solid-state battery sector also performed well, with the battery ETF seeing a single-day inflow of over 1.4 billion yuan [6]. Outflow Trends - Broad-based ETFs experienced a significant net outflow of 9.539 billion yuan, with the Shanghai 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF each seeing outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [8][9]. - Other sectors like the Sci-Tech chip ETF and computer ETF also faced substantial outflows, each exceeding 200 million yuan [8]. Investment Sentiment - Despite the market downturn, major fund companies like Bosera and Guotai Junan remain optimistic about the equity market, citing potential structural opportunities and a favorable macroeconomic environment [10][15]. - The Hong Kong market continues to show high investment activity, particularly in sectors like communication and artificial intelligence, with significant gains in related ETFs [12][11].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility due to increased uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies and frequent adjustments by institutions [1][3] - The XBIT decentralized exchange platform is gaining traction as a new safe haven for investors, leveraging its on-chain transparency, automated matching, and cross-chain compatibility [1][5] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between $112,000 and $108,800, with analysts suggesting a potential drop to $105,000 if it fails to close above $112,000 [3] - Ethereum has shown stronger performance, attempting to break the $4,700 resistance, interpreted by some analysts as a precursor to reaching $5,000 [3] Trading Activity - The XBIT decentralized exchange is attracting investors looking to manage slippage and quickly switch trading strategies, becoming a notable option for short to medium-term trading [3][5] - XBIT's on-chain clearing and automated market-making mechanisms are effectively mitigating issues like frequent outages and slippage seen in centralized exchanges [5] Institutional Interest - Ethereum ETFs have seen a net inflow of $455 million over the past four trading days, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment towards Ethereum [6] - XBIT is actively expanding its offerings by adding multiple ERC-20 trading pairs, including popular meme coins and AI concept tokens, enhancing its cross-chain asset exchange capabilities [6] User Engagement - As of August 28, XBIT's overall on-chain active users increased by 18% week-over-week, with cross-chain trading volume rising by 26%, highlighting its role as an important asset allocation tool during market volatility [8] - Current prices for BTC and ETH are $111,650 and $4,633 respectively, with year-to-date increases of 19.16% and 38.54% [8]