兄弟们，国际投行对中国楼市的判断，最近彻底"打起来了"！ 一边是高盛，一边是瑞银，看着同样的数据，却给出了完全相反的剧本。 今天，我就带你扒开这两份报告，看看他们到底在吵什么，以及咱们普通人该怎么看。 1. 高盛 vs 瑞银：一个"谨慎乐观"，一个"深度悲观" 高盛说：房价从2021年高点已经跌了20%，但最坏的时期可能快过去了。预计到2027年，全国房价可能再跌10%（三四线可能跌25%）。银行扛得住，就 算房价再跌20%，也不会引发系统性崩盘。 瑞银则直接泼冷水：一线城市房价可能还要再跌38%，下行周期要持续到2026-2027年。为啥？因为租金回报率太低了，根本覆盖不了月供。 2. 数据打架？不，是解读不同 看国家统计局数据：新房销量还在跌，但跌幅在收窄；库存"八连降"；二手房交易反而涨了，在十几个城市增速超10%，交易占比快到一半了。 3. 价格真相：一线核心区坚挺，三四线深跌 市场分化极其严重： 一线城市核心区，跌幅控制在3%-5%，上海还有高端盘逆势上涨。 这说明什么？市场正在从"卖新房"转向"卖旧房"。 高盛甚至预测，到2035年，二手房要占交易的三分之二，新房市场规模要从18万亿的峰值腰斩到8 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement significant interest rate cuts, with the federal funds rate currently at 4.5% to 4.75% after previous reductions [2][3] - The U.S. economy shows a GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025, but faces challenges such as a 2.5% inflation rate and a rising unemployment rate of 4.2% [3] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are likely to stimulate global capital flows, benefiting emerging markets like China, particularly in the real estate sector [3][4] Group 2 - The reduction in interest rates directly impacts mortgage rates in China, with the central bank's LPR decreasing from 3.95% to 3.6%, potentially leading to further cuts [4] - A decrease in mortgage rates can save homebuyers significant amounts, encouraging them to enter the market, as evidenced by a 12% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions in first-tier cities in the first half of 2025 [4][5] - Improved financing conditions for developers, particularly those burdened by high-interest overseas debts, can lead to a revival in project completions and reduced risks of unfinished projects [4][5] Group 3 - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to boost market confidence, leading to increased transaction volumes in the real estate market, especially in first- and second-tier cities [7][11] - The differentiation in real estate performance across cities is notable, with first- and second-tier cities benefiting more from the rate cuts compared to third- and fourth-tier cities, which face high inventory and population outflows [9] - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is shifting positively, with expectations of a 4.8% GDP growth in China and a projected 5% increase in sales area in the real estate sector in 2025 [10][11]