大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026 开年宏观 策略谈 260105_原文 发言人 00:01 54321。各位投资者朋友，大家上午好。欢迎来到 2026 年开年的大摩宏观策略谈，我是邢自强 Robin。大伙儿一别三舟，已然跨年祝大家在 26 年新春家庭日有熹月有光寿而康。 发言人 00:29 我想刚过去的 25 年非常有转折意义，资本市场有一个跃迁式的进展。26 年的开年也迎来了似乎一个 开门红，人民币汇率也在近期走强突破，但全球范围并不平静。海外以美国对委内瑞拉单边为标志，地 缘政治东稳西荡，全球不平静的新秩序依然在重塑。所以这些政策的最近的演绎了，底层逻辑上还是延 续了我们在 2025 年一系列宏观策略谈的核心判断。那就是在 26 年可能三个进行时还会继续的深化。 这三个进行时分别包含了全球地缘的东苇兮大产生的一个深远影响，可能是对美元去魅的再深化还处于 进行时。所以近期人民币汇率升，当然大家会找短期的一些所谓季节性的出口贸易商的结汇。在年底了 央行也允许汇率适度的升值，显示人民币的稳健性以及中国的贸易顺差达到了突破万亿美元大关等等。 发言人 01:55 但我想最大的一个背景还是美元贬值， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant role of innovation in China's economic development, highlighted by the impressive market performance of domestic GPU companies like Muxi Co., Ltd. and Moore Threads, which reflects strong investor confidence in innovation-driven enterprises [2][3]. - Muxi Co., Ltd. debuted on the STAR Market with a nearly sevenfold increase in share price, marking it as the third highest stock price in A-shares history, showcasing the wealth effect in the A-share market [2]. - The recent Central Economic Work Conference underscored the importance of innovation, advocating for a dual approach of policy support and reform to foster high-quality development [2]. Group 2 - The high premiums on stocks of innovative companies like Muxi and Moore Threads indicate market expectations for China's innovation capabilities, amidst a backdrop of asset scarcity in the domestic financial market [3][4]. - To transform the initial sparks of innovation into widespread success, it is essential to create a conducive environment for innovation, emphasizing the need for clear policy support and the freedom for enterprises to innovate [4][5]. - The articles stress the importance of maintaining a competitive and open environment for innovation, as the success of companies like Muxi and Moore Threads is linked to international collaboration and the backgrounds of their founding teams [4][5].