大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026 经济与市 场展望 251117_原文 发言人 00:00 OK, 不好意思，大家上午好。我们今天由于技术原因晚了大概五分钟，而且这个视频也打不开。但今天 的话题是很重要的，我是 Robert 行富强。 发言人 00:12 做出这些判断的部分原因是什么？也是根据最近我们看到的十五规划建议稿已经落地了。中美之间的经 贸协议经过了多轮之间的博弈按下了暂停键，以及我们对美国经济、全球经济明年也有一个判断。 发言人 02:01 总的来讲，首先是美国讲起来 26 年和 27 年，美国经济还是比较有韧性的。特别是 AI 短期来讲人工智 能是带动美国的投资，中长期来讲可能会释放出对生产力的带动，对 26 年和 27 年美国经济还是保持 了一定的韧性。具体从季节性上来讲，26 年的上半年会略差一点。因为有一些今年的政策的滞后扰动， 比如说它的关税的调整，移民政策的收紧。但是看明年的全年到与 AI 相关的投资来托底。可能上半年 签过之后，下半年逐个季度美国经济也会修复。到了 27 年，可能美国的通胀也逐渐的稳定了。AI 人工 智能带动的生产率的提升更加显性化了，使得它的经济在健 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent nationwide increase in minimum wage standards in China, highlighting the implications for workers and the economy as a whole. Group 1: Minimum Wage Increase - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has announced that the minimum wage standards across various provinces have increased, with the first tier now exceeding 2000 yuan for the first time [5][19]. - The increase in minimum wage is consistent with the government's directive to "reasonably raise minimum wage standards," with many provinces seeing increases of over 10% compared to last year [8][12]. - The top provinces for minimum wage include Shanghai (2740 yuan), Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong (all above 2500 yuan), and Jiangsu, Zhejiang (2490 yuan) [11][12]. Group 2: Economic Context - The increase in minimum wage is part of a broader initiative to enhance wage growth mechanisms and promote income growth among residents, which is crucial as wage income constitutes about 60% of household income in China [28][30]. - The government has emphasized that raising wages is not just a matter for individual companies but a national priority, impacting consumption, fertility rates, and overall economic development [36][37]. Group 3: Future Implications - The rise in minimum wage is expected to have a cascading effect, positively influencing all workers, not just those earning minimum wage, as it sets a new baseline for wage negotiations [32][33]. - The government's focus on wage increases is seen as a strategy to stimulate consumption and address long-term economic challenges, marking a shift from merely issuing consumption vouchers to prioritizing income growth [40][41].

Summary of Conference Call on China's Social Welfare Reform Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the social welfare reform in China as part of the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on addressing economic challenges such as debt, population aging, and deflation [1][6][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Importance of Social Welfare Reform**: Social welfare reform is crucial for breaking deflation and achieving a balanced economic development. It is seen as a key measure to facilitate a unified market cycle [1][10]. 2. **Progress in Addressing "3D" Challenges**: China has made progress in dealing with debt, demographic changes, and deflation over the past five years, with government support helping to mitigate risks associated with local government debt [1][6]. 3. **Economic Rebalancing**: The government aims to achieve economic rebalancing through targeted policies that can enhance total factor productivity, despite the short-term pain associated with reforms [1][10]. 4. **Rural vs. Urban Disparities**: There is a significant gap in social security coverage and benefits between urban and rural populations, necessitating reforms to enhance rural residents' welfare [2][11]. 5. **Long-term Benefits of Reform**: While short-term adjustments may lead to increased costs for households and businesses, the long-term benefits include improved consumption, reduced defensive savings, and enhanced economic resilience [2][12][27]. 6. **Fiscal Pressure from Aging Population**: The aging population is expected to increase fiscal pressure on the social security system, with projections indicating that fiscal transfers will need to rise from approximately 2% of GDP to over 3% [12][27]. 7. **Investment vs. Social Spending**: There is a need to shift resources from low-return investments to support social welfare, which requires a departure from the current investment-heavy growth model [12][13]. 8. **High Savings Rate**: China's high household savings rate, which has remained around 44% of GDP, reflects structural imbalances in the economy and underscores the need for reforms to stimulate consumption [16][22]. 9. **Social Security System Overview**: The current social security system is characterized by a dual-track structure, with urban workers receiving significantly higher benefits compared to rural residents [33][41]. 10. **Challenges in Implementation**: The complexity of the social security system, including high contribution rates and low perceived benefits, discourages participation, particularly among low-income groups [56][57]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Potential for Future Reforms**: The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is expected to discuss key points of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may provide a critical window for implementing more substantial reforms [10][12]. - **International Comparisons**: The report highlights that China's social security spending as a percentage of GDP is lower than that of many OECD countries, indicating room for improvement in social welfare provisions [41][42]. - **Impact of Social Security on Consumption**: Increased social security spending is correlated with higher consumption levels, suggesting that enhancing the social safety net could stimulate economic growth [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding China's social welfare reform and its implications for the economy.