她认为，人民币相对于美元走强，对于海外投资人投资中国股市是完完全全的利好，中国的可投资性， 在所有其他因子变量保持不变的话，反而是向上走的，同时叠加人民币升值态势，在接下来的几个月里 面，应该可以预见到外资对中国股票资产的持续配置。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强1月5日在2026开年的第一场闭门策略会中指出，2026年全球经济面 临三个"进行时"的深化：全球地缘政治东稳西荡产生的深远影响，对美元去魅的再深化还处于进行时， 对中国产业实力的再认知也处于进行时，所以，无论是跟 AI 相关的软硬件应用、国产算力替代，还是 一些先进制造业的继续升级和出海，相信在2026年会继续得到认可。三，是对打破通缩的再探索还处于 进行时，核心聚焦于如何精准落地一些政策，预计国补规模会延续，但会更加重视科技应用场景。 在股市展望方面，大摩首席策略师Laura指出，大家都已经看到了，包括今天(1月5日)的A股、上周五港 股的开门红，给2026年的开年注入了一针强心剂。无论是科技界目光的再次投入，还是资本市场的活跃 度，包括境内中长期国债收益率的走势，国际整体局势的变化，对投资中国资产都没有产生利空的变 化，相对来讲都是中性偏利好 ...

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026 开年宏观 策略谈 260105_原文 发言人 00:01 54321。各位投资者朋友，大家上午好。欢迎来到 2026 年开年的大摩宏观策略谈，我是邢自强 Robin。大伙儿一别三舟，已然跨年祝大家在 26 年新春家庭日有熹月有光寿而康。 发言人 00:29 我想刚过去的 25 年非常有转折意义，资本市场有一个跃迁式的进展。26 年的开年也迎来了似乎一个 开门红，人民币汇率也在近期走强突破，但全球范围并不平静。海外以美国对委内瑞拉单边为标志，地 缘政治东稳西荡，全球不平静的新秩序依然在重塑。所以这些政策的最近的演绎了，底层逻辑上还是延 续了我们在 2025 年一系列宏观策略谈的核心判断。那就是在 26 年可能三个进行时还会继续的深化。 这三个进行时分别包含了全球地缘的东苇兮大产生的一个深远影响，可能是对美元去魅的再深化还处于 进行时。所以近期人民币汇率升，当然大家会找短期的一些所谓季节性的出口贸易商的结汇。在年底了 央行也允许汇率适度的升值，显示人民币的稳健性以及中国的贸易顺差达到了突破万亿美元大关等等。 发言人 01:55 但我想最大的一个背景还是美元贬值， ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Economic and Market Outlook for 2026-2027 Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the global economic and market outlook for 2026 and 2027, with a particular emphasis on the U.S. and Chinese economies. Core Points and Arguments Economic Outlook for the U.S. 1. The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026 and 2027, driven by investments in AI and productivity improvements [6][7][8] 2. The first half of 2026 may experience slight economic weakness due to policy lags, but recovery is anticipated in the second half [7][12] 3. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to a neutral level of 3% to 3.25%, adopting a more dovish stance [8][9] 4. The U.S. government aims to manage its growing debt through economic growth and moderate inflation, similar to post-World War II strategies [9][10][12] 5. The dollar may stabilize despite lower interest rates, with potential slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar [13] Economic Outlook for China 1. China is in a transitional phase from deflation to low inflation, with 2026 seen as the final year of a three-year battle against deflation [4][14] 2. The projected GDP growth for China in 2026 is 4.8%, with nominal GDP growth around 4.1% [14][15] 3. Fiscal policies are expected to remain conservative initially, with potential for increased spending in the second half of 2026, particularly in real estate [15][16] 4. Monetary policy may see symbolic interest rate cuts of 10 to 20 basis points, depending on economic data [16] 5. The focus will be on social welfare and real estate policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize the economy [17][19] Investment Strategies 1. The call recommends a bullish stance on equities, particularly U.S. stocks, with a target for the S&P 500 to reach 7,800 by the end of 2026 [27][28] 2. The U.S. stock market is expected to see broad-based gains rather than being driven solely by a few high-performing companies [27] 3. Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is projected at 15% annually from 2025 to 2027, the strongest among global markets [28] 4. Japan's market is also viewed positively due to favorable fiscal policies and a stable inflation narrative [32] 5. Emerging markets are seen as less favorable for investment, with a focus on specific countries like India and Singapore [34] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The call emphasizes the need for structural reforms in China, including reducing local government competition and improving the business environment [18] 2. The potential for fiscal measures to support the real estate market, including direct purchases of unsold properties, is discussed but faces execution challenges [20][22] 3. The impact of consumer sentiment and wealth distribution on spending is highlighted, noting that stock market gains have not significantly improved overall consumer confidence due to high real estate investment [47][48] 4. The importance of monitoring the ongoing U.S.-China trade relationship and its implications for economic stability is stressed [39][52] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated economic landscape for the U.S. and China in the coming years.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent nationwide increase in minimum wage standards in China, highlighting the implications for workers and the economy as a whole. Group 1: Minimum Wage Increase - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has announced that the minimum wage standards across various provinces have increased, with the first tier now exceeding 2000 yuan for the first time [5][19]. - The increase in minimum wage is consistent with the government's directive to "reasonably raise minimum wage standards," with many provinces seeing increases of over 10% compared to last year [8][12]. - The top provinces for minimum wage include Shanghai (2740 yuan), Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong (all above 2500 yuan), and Jiangsu, Zhejiang (2490 yuan) [11][12]. Group 2: Economic Context - The increase in minimum wage is part of a broader initiative to enhance wage growth mechanisms and promote income growth among residents, which is crucial as wage income constitutes about 60% of household income in China [28][30]. - The government has emphasized that raising wages is not just a matter for individual companies but a national priority, impacting consumption, fertility rates, and overall economic development [36][37]. Group 3: Future Implications - The rise in minimum wage is expected to have a cascading effect, positively influencing all workers, not just those earning minimum wage, as it sets a new baseline for wage negotiations [32][33]. - The government's focus on wage increases is seen as a strategy to stimulate consumption and address long-term economic challenges, marking a shift from merely issuing consumption vouchers to prioritizing income growth [40][41].

Summary of Conference Call on China's Social Welfare Reform Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the social welfare reform in China as part of the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on addressing economic challenges such as debt, population aging, and deflation [1][6][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Importance of Social Welfare Reform**: Social welfare reform is crucial for breaking deflation and achieving a balanced economic development. It is seen as a key measure to facilitate a unified market cycle [1][10]. 2. **Progress in Addressing "3D" Challenges**: China has made progress in dealing with debt, demographic changes, and deflation over the past five years, with government support helping to mitigate risks associated with local government debt [1][6]. 3. **Economic Rebalancing**: The government aims to achieve economic rebalancing through targeted policies that can enhance total factor productivity, despite the short-term pain associated with reforms [1][10]. 4. **Rural vs. Urban Disparities**: There is a significant gap in social security coverage and benefits between urban and rural populations, necessitating reforms to enhance rural residents' welfare [2][11]. 5. **Long-term Benefits of Reform**: While short-term adjustments may lead to increased costs for households and businesses, the long-term benefits include improved consumption, reduced defensive savings, and enhanced economic resilience [2][12][27]. 6. **Fiscal Pressure from Aging Population**: The aging population is expected to increase fiscal pressure on the social security system, with projections indicating that fiscal transfers will need to rise from approximately 2% of GDP to over 3% [12][27]. 7. **Investment vs. Social Spending**: There is a need to shift resources from low-return investments to support social welfare, which requires a departure from the current investment-heavy growth model [12][13]. 8. **High Savings Rate**: China's high household savings rate, which has remained around 44% of GDP, reflects structural imbalances in the economy and underscores the need for reforms to stimulate consumption [16][22]. 9. **Social Security System Overview**: The current social security system is characterized by a dual-track structure, with urban workers receiving significantly higher benefits compared to rural residents [33][41]. 10. **Challenges in Implementation**: The complexity of the social security system, including high contribution rates and low perceived benefits, discourages participation, particularly among low-income groups [56][57]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Potential for Future Reforms**: The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is expected to discuss key points of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may provide a critical window for implementing more substantial reforms [10][12]. - **International Comparisons**: The report highlights that China's social security spending as a percentage of GDP is lower than that of many OECD countries, indicating room for improvement in social welfare provisions [41][42]. - **Impact of Social Security on Consumption**: Increased social security spending is correlated with higher consumption levels, suggesting that enhancing the social safety net could stimulate economic growth [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding China's social welfare reform and its implications for the economy.