中国南京的购物中心（12月，Reuters） 2026年的经济增速预测范围为4.0%～5.0%，平均值为4.5%，较9月的上次调查提高0.2个 百分点。不少经济学家指出，消费者的通缩思维呈现出常态化…… 日本经济新闻与日经QUICK新闻汇总的中国经济学家调查结果显示，中国2026年的实际国内 生产总值（GDP）的预测平均值为同比增长4.5%。虽然美国加征关税导致的出口前景不确定 性有所下降，但仍难以弥补房地产市场行情和消费的低迷，预计中国经济增速将放缓。 2025年经济增速的预测平均值为4.9%，几乎所有受访经济学家都认为能够实现政府提出 的"5%左右"的增长目标。 当前10～12月的同比增速预测平均值为4.4%。比7～9月低0.4个百分点。从反映经济势头的 经季节调整后的环比增速预测平均值来看，10～12月为1.0%，较7～9月放缓0.1个百分点。 2025年为应对美国加征关税而提前出口的动向以及消费提振政策，对经济起到了推高作用。 经济学家们认为9月之前积累的"超预期表现"将会吸收最后阶段的失速。瑞穗银行的伊藤秀树 将2025年全年增速预期上调至4.9%，比原来提高0.2个百分点，并解释称："考虑到1～9 ...

Core Viewpoint - Economists predict China's GDP growth for Q2 2025 to average 5.0%, slightly lower than the actual growth rate of 5.4% in Q1 2025, with trade tensions with the US being a significant concern but exports to Southeast Asia providing some support [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - The highest predicted growth rate for Q2 2025 is 5.3%, while the lowest is 4.3%, indicating a slowdown compared to Q1 2025 [3]. - The average seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate is 0.8%, down from 1.2% in Q1 2025 [3]. - For the entire year of 2025, the average growth expectation is 4.6%, with many economists believing the government’s target of around 5% is unlikely to be met [4]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The US-China trade negotiations have led to a reduction in additional tariffs by 115%, which may improve the economic outlook [3]. - Despite a decrease in direct exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and other regions have compensated for this decline [3][4]. - The temporary suspension of additional tariffs is expected to maintain the effective tariff rate on Chinese products at around 40% until the end of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Retail Sales - In May 2025, China's retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies for replacing old appliances [3]. - However, analysts express concerns that this growth may be temporary, predicting a slowdown in the second half of the year [3]. Group 4: Economic Risks and Concerns - UBS warns that uncertainties in US-China negotiations could lower growth rates by 1-1.5 percentage points, with a predicted growth rate of 4% for 2025 being the lowest in the survey [6]. - Key risk factors identified include a sluggish real estate market and weak consumer spending, exacerbated by falling property prices [6]. - There are concerns about a potential deflationary spiral leading to worsened corporate performance and reduced consumer spending [6].