（来源：谭谈研究） 瑞银（UBS）最近对3000名中国消费者进行草根调研，根据收回的3000份调研报告显示，中国消费者目 前消费倾向还在持续下滑，核心原因在于收入下滑+资产下降带来的财富负效应。 1.居民收入下滑 第一张图是针对 3000 名中国消费者的总收入（包括工资、投资收益、房租收入）所做的调研。结果显 示，工资收入与房租收入的增长均出现明显放缓——其中房租收入的降幅甚至大于工资收入。唯一略有 上升的是投资收入，这与今年 A 股走牛有一定关系。 不过，由于中国家庭的资产主要集中在房地产，加上收入预期不太稳定，受访者在展望接下来 12 个月 时，对收入的信心比 2024 年的调查还要弱，尤其是工资和房产租赁收入方面。这直接拉低了他们对未 来财务状况改善的预期。 别小看收入下滑，它跟消费不是简单的"减多少就少多少"的关系，而是乘数关系——比如收入少了 1 万，消费减少的可能不是 1 万，而是 3 万、5 万甚至更多。 原因有两个：一是手头能花的钱变少了，二是消费倾向也会跟着下降——人们更倾向于把钱存起来而不 是花出去。这正是经济学里的乘数效应，也引出我们接下来要讲的内容。 2.储蓄意愿增强，消费意愿减弱 由 ...

中国南京的购物中心（12月，Reuters） 2026年的经济增速预测范围为4.0%～5.0%，平均值为4.5%，较9月的上次调查提高0.2个 百分点。不少经济学家指出，消费者的通缩思维呈现出常态化…… 日本经济新闻与日经QUICK新闻汇总的中国经济学家调查结果显示，中国2026年的实际国内 生产总值（GDP）的预测平均值为同比增长4.5%。虽然美国加征关税导致的出口前景不确定 性有所下降，但仍难以弥补房地产市场行情和消费的低迷，预计中国经济增速将放缓。 2025年经济增速的预测平均值为4.9%，几乎所有受访经济学家都认为能够实现政府提出 的"5%左右"的增长目标。 当前10～12月的同比增速预测平均值为4.4%。比7～9月低0.4个百分点。从反映经济势头的 经季节调整后的环比增速预测平均值来看，10～12月为1.0%，较7～9月放缓0.1个百分点。 2025年为应对美国加征关税而提前出口的动向以及消费提振政策，对经济起到了推高作用。 经济学家们认为9月之前积累的"超预期表现"将会吸收最后阶段的失速。瑞穗银行的伊藤秀树 将2025年全年增速预期上调至4.9%，比原来提高0.2个百分点，并解释称："考虑到1～9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. stock market following the end of the government shutdown, highlighting concerns over economic data shortages and the potential impact on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, particularly regarding AI stocks' valuations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nasdaq index experienced a significant drop of over 2%, marking its largest decline in four days, with a year-to-date increase driven by AI stocks now down approximately 5% from its October peak [3]. - European and Asian markets also faced declines, with major indices in Tokyo, Paris, and London falling, and Bitcoin hitting a near six-month low of approximately $96,000 [3]. - The widening credit spreads indicate rising liquidity pressures, reflecting a market environment characterized by heightened risk aversion [3]. Group 2: Economic Data Concerns - The government shutdown resulted in an "information vacuum," affecting the collection of critical economic data, including employment and inflation statistics, which may not be published [3][4]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell likened the current situation to "driving in the fog," suggesting that the lack of data may lead to a pause in interest rate cuts rather than further reductions [3]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The S&P 500's expected price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.8, significantly above its 10-year average of 18.8, indicating that continued Fed rate cuts are necessary to justify current valuations [5]. - High-performing sectors, particularly technology, are experiencing increased volatility, with notable declines in stocks like Palantir and Oracle, and Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is deemed critical [5][6]. Group 4: Systematic Market Pressures - The market is facing potential "anti-dispersion" effects, driven by large-cap tech stocks, and two significant pressures: tax-loss harvesting and year-end window dressing, which could exacerbate stock performance issues [7]. - The presence of negative dealer gamma indicates that options traders are amplifying market volatility rather than stabilizing it, leading to further selling pressure during downturns [8]. Group 5: Liquidity and Future Outlook - The growth of leveraged ETFs poses a risk, as they must rebalance by selling assets during market downturns, potentially leading to significant asset sales [9]. - Bank of America suggests that market liquidity has peaked, with potential warning signs emerging from bank stocks or credit spreads, indicating a shift towards risk aversion [10].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment after over two decades of growth, with property prices expected to continue declining until 2027 [1][3] - Approximately 47% of property owners report that their homes have depreciated below the purchase price, leading to a substantial reduction in national property value [3][4] - The market is facing three main challenges: asset depreciation, high mortgage burdens, and changing housing demands due to an aging population [4][5][7] Group 1: Market Trends - As of 2025, the real estate market has experienced over four consecutive years of decline, with a 13.9% year-on-year decrease in real estate development investment and a 12.9% drop in residential investment [1] - The average property price has decreased by 30% from its peak, significantly impacting the wealth of nearly half of the households in the country [3][4] - The adjustment period has led to a new market structure, with first and second-tier cities experiencing smaller price drops compared to third and fourth-tier cities, where prices have reverted to levels seen a decade ago [1][3] Group 2: Challenges Faced by Households - Asset depreciation is the most immediate issue, with many families experiencing a significant reduction in their wealth, leading to a negative wealth effect that decreases consumer spending [4][5] - High mortgage payments are becoming a long-term burden for many families, with the household debt-to-income ratio reaching 128%, significantly above international warning levels [5][6] - The aging population is creating a mismatch in housing demand, as the needs of older adults differ from those of younger buyers, leading to a decline in suitable housing options [7][8] Group 3: Recommendations for Households - Young first-time buyers are advised to make rational purchasing decisions based on personal financial situations rather than market speculation, with a recommendation to keep total mortgage debt within four to five times their annual income [8][9] - Middle-aged families should focus on diversifying their assets and consider selling properties in less promising markets to invest in more stable options [9][10] - Older adults should reassess their housing needs and consider moving to communities with better facilities for seniors, while also exploring alternative income sources for retirement [11][12] Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the real estate market may stabilize by 2025, with a projected narrowing of price declines in new and second-hand homes [12] - The market is shifting from an investment-driven model to one focused on residential needs, with new policies and housing products emerging to enhance living quality [12] - The overall sentiment suggests a need for families to adjust their expectations regarding property investments and focus on long-term planning [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the commercial property market is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in registration numbers and amounts in the first five months of 2025, attributed to previous price declines and favorable market conditions [1][2] - In the first five months of 2025, the total number of commercial property registrations reached 1,861, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.8%, while the registered amount was approximately HKD 25.311 billion, also up by 39.7% [1] - The increase in registration volume is driven by a previous sharp decline in property prices, lower interest rates, and a buoyant stock market, which have attracted more buyers into the market [1] Group 2 - Despite the overall increase in commercial property registrations, shop transactions lagged behind the market, with only 395 registrations in the same period, a modest year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and a registered amount of approximately HKD 6.467 billion, down by 26.7% [2] - The retail sector is experiencing weakness, as indicated by a 2.3% year-on-year decline in retail sales value in April, which has negatively impacted the commercial property market [2] - The company believes that while transaction volumes may continue to rise in the second half of the year due to lower interest rates, the overall transaction amounts may be affected by uncertainties related to trade wars [2] Group 3 - The company suggests that the government should host more high-value economic events and trade activities to revitalize the economy, such as inviting international sports teams and famous artists to perform in Hong Kong [3] - It is recommended that the government increase the investment cap for non-residential properties in the new investment immigration program to HKD 10 million, allowing applicants to invest in larger commercial properties [3]