近期，北京、广东、河南、浙江等地两会陆续召开，各省区市回顾成绩，定下目标，明确2026年要做的重要事项。今年是"十五五"开局之年，各地如何开 好头、起好步？ 这些省份定下的增长目标是多少？ 北京2026年经济社会发展主要预期目标是：地区生产总值增长5%左右。数据显示，2025年北京GDP增速为5.4%，高于全国5%的增速。 北京市发展改革委相关负责人介绍，今年北京GDP增速目标为5%左右，既有利于提振信心，激励各方共同努力，也有利于把握发展主动，为应对不确定 性和解决发展问题留出空间。 广东2026年的主要预期目标是：地区生产总值增长4.5%～5%，在实际工作中全力争取更好结果。两会上，广东省政府工作报告显示，2025年广东地区生 产总值增长3.9%，连续37年经济总量位居全国首位。 广东外贸规模连续40年领跑，工业机器人产量占全国四成，数字经济规模稳居全国首位，彰显着突围的勇气与魄力，在新兴产业中展现出快速发展的势 头。 浙江两会已召开完毕。浙江省政府工作报告显示，2026年经济社会发展主要预期目标为：全省生产总值增长5%～5.5%，在实际工作中努力争取更好结 果。 截至目前，浙江2026年设定的GDP增长 ...

[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： [Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月26日 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260126 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | 1.1. 历史盈利回归参考，看好更长的化工周期——资产配置周报（2026/01/19- | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/23） | | 3 | | 1.2. 12 月社零同增 0.9%，消费规模稳步扩大——12 | 月社零报告专题 | 4 | | 2. 财 ...

近日，美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）在明尼苏达州的执法行动正引发持续升级的社会争议。一系 列涉及平民死亡、劳工停工以及社区恐慌的事件令美国大型企业面临越来越大的压力。 政策研究机构北星政策行动组织（North Star Policy Action）发布的最新报告显示，移民执法行动每 周至少给纳税人带来1800万美元的成本。而移民工人和企业主每年为明尼苏达州创造的经济产出达到约 410亿美元。 建筑行业受到的影响尤为明显。一名明尼苏达州建筑工人表示，ICE的行动正在制造"伤害和混 乱"，导致大量工人无法正常工作。1月21日，他曾与同事及支持者前往住宅开发商DR Horton位于莱克 维尔的地区办公室递交请愿书，要求公司在没有有效司法搜查令的情况下禁止ICE进入工地，并呼吁结 束突袭式执法。但无人出面回应诉求，警方最终要求抗议者离开。 "我和同事已经一个月没有工作了，"这名工人说，在项目停摆后，当地教堂一直为工人们提供食物 和房租援助。 当地时间1月24日，37岁的护士亚历克斯·杰弗里·普雷蒂（Alex Jeffrey Pretti）遇害一案进一步点燃 了怒火。 明尼苏达州劳联—产联（AFL-CIO）主席伯尼·伯 ...

"对等关税"落地以来，美国再通胀的风险可控，至今尚未成为货币政策和资本市场的主要矛盾。关税的通 胀效应为何持续低于预期、会否成为2026年"被低估"的风险？ 一、对等关税的"通胀效应"：这次为何系统性低于预期？ 2025年4月以来，美国通胀开始反弹，但读数持续弱于预期。 2025年，美国"再通胀"的动力主要来自于核心 商品分项，而核心服务继续延续降温态势。2025年12月，美国CPI同比仅为2.7%，4月低点为2.3%；环比角 度来看，2025年4月以来，美国通胀环比多数弱于预期。 关税的通胀效应有迹可循，但传导路径并非脉冲式的，而是阶梯式的。 从"超额"通胀及季节性来看，关税 的通胀效应有迹可循；但是，关税的传导路径并非脉冲式的，Cavallo（2025）指出，关税对美国CPI的推升 幅度约为0.65个百分点。近几月以来，关税传导进度甚至有所停滞。 关税传导的阶梯特征与关税税率的路径有关。 截止到2025年10月，美国有效关税税率仅为12.4%，低于 15.7%的理论税率。运输时滞、抢进口因素一度阻碍有效税率提升，但关税豁免、进口国别转换或限制税率 提升空间。剔除国别转换因素后，有效税率提升空间仅为2个百分 ...

"对等关税"落地以来，美国再通胀的风险可控，至今尚未成为货币政策和资本市场的主要矛盾。关税的通 胀效应为何持续低于预期、会否成为2026年"被低估"的风险？ 一、对等关税的"通胀效应"：这次为何系统性低于预期？ 2025年4月以来，美国通胀开始反弹，但读数持续弱于预期。 2025年，美国"再通胀"的动力主要来自于核心 商品分项，而核心服务继续延续降温态势。2025年12月，美国CPI同比仅为2.7%，4月低点为2.3%；环比角 度来看，2025年4月以来，美国通胀环比多数弱于预期。 关税的通胀效应有迹可循，但传导路径并非脉冲式的，而是阶梯式的。 从"超额"通胀及季节性来看，关税 的通胀效应有迹可循；但是，关税的传导路径并非脉冲式的，Cavallo（2025）指出，关税对美国CPI的推升 幅度约为0.65个百分点。近几月以来，关税传导进度甚至有所停滞。 关税传导的阶梯特征与关税税率的路径有关。 截止到2025年10月，美国有效关税税率仅为12.4%，低于 15.7%的理论税率。运输时滞、抢进口因素一度阻碍有效税率提升，但关税豁免、进口国别转换或限制税率 提升空间。剔除国别转换因素后，有效税率提升空间仅为2个百分 ...

免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 根据公开资料整理，麦克雷自2014年加入沃尔玛，2020年起执掌国际业务，任内推动中国、印度及墨西 哥等核心市场电商与供应链整合。 观点网讯：1月16日，美国零售巨头沃尔玛（Walmart）宣布，凯瑟琳·麦克雷（Kathryn McLay）将卸任 沃尔玛国际业务首席执行官，将留任至1月31日以完成交接工作。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. long-term Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield at 4.14% and the 30-year yield at a one-month low of 4.79%, driven by rising market risk aversion and geopolitical concerns [1] - The U.K. bond market strengthened, with the 10-year U.K. bond yield dropping to a new low of 4.35%, reflecting pessimism about the U.K. economic growth outlook [1] - The U.S. stock market has seen declines for two consecutive days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices falling by 0.53% and 1.00%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. White House announced a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products starting January 15 [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for November 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures at the production level [1] - Energy prices surged by 4.6% month-on-month, contributing over 80% to the overall commodity price increase, with gasoline prices rising by 10.5% [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month's increase and exceeding market expectations [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] - Retail and food service sales in the U.S. for November 2025 reached $735.9 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market consensus expectations [3]

Group 1 - Analysts from Canaccord Genuity stated that Walmart is well-positioned to benefit as consumers increasingly turn to AI shopping [1] - Walmart believes it will excel with the further adoption of AI search, as large language models will prioritize products with the best price, category, and delivery speed [1] - The analysts noted that these factors will be advantageous for Walmart, especially since Amazon appears unlikely to collaborate with OpenAI's ChatGPT or Google's Gemini [1] - The target price for Walmart's stock has been raised from $123 to $126 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policies on both the U.S. economy and global economy, particularly affecting consumer confidence and spending during the holiday season [1][2][4] - The preliminary consumer confidence index for December 2025 is reported at 53.3, a significant drop from the previous year's final value of 74, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment [1] - A report indicates that popular holiday gift prices have increased by an average of 26% compared to the previous year, with specific categories like home and kitchen goods rising by 38% and electronics by 34% [1] Group 2 - Many American families are feeling the financial pressure from tariff policies, leading to reduced purchasing power during the holiday season, with 87% of respondents in a recent poll noting higher grocery prices [2][3] - Approximately 40% of households have reduced the number of gifts they purchase, and nearly one-third have cut back on the number of gift recipients due to rising costs [3] - The burden of tariffs is largely passed on to consumers, with 70.5% of tariff costs being transferred to them, while retailers absorb the remaining 29.5% [3] Group 3 - The U.S. government's assertion that tariff costs will be borne by other countries is contradicted by evidence showing that these policies are increasing the financial burden on American citizens [4] - The economic outlook suggests that the volume of imports subject to tariffs has significantly decreased, indicating a suppression of overall demand in the U.S. economy, which is expected to continue affecting consumer spending and inflation [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy in 2025, despite challenges such as Trump's economic policies and government shutdowns, with retail sales in November exceeding expectations due to a rebound in automobile purchases and strong holiday shopping [2] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% in November, with the previous month's data revised down to a decline of 0.1%. Excluding automobiles, sales rose by 0.5% [2] - Ten out of thirteen retail categories recorded growth, including sporting goods, hobby stores, building materials retailers, and clothing stores, indicating broad-based consumer spending [2] Group 2 - The increase in retail sales was also supported by a rise in gasoline station sales, contributing to overall growth [2] - The holiday shopping season typically accelerates in November, with retailers offering promotions and discounts not only on "Black Friday" but also in the preceding days [2] - Despite ongoing concerns about affordability and job prospects, consumers took advantage of discounts, with affluent Americans continuing to support overall consumption [2][3]