转换不应拘泥于高低，而是逻辑 本周（20250908-20250912）上证指数在周五盘中突破前高，而 TMT 板块并未创下新高，市场已不完全由 AI 产业链所 引领。在过去 2 周，围绕着风格是否应该切换展开了很多讨论，也存在很多误区。需要说明的是，我们此前提示的市 场大转换，并不应该单纯地理解为从成长风格切向价值风格，或者是板块的高低切，而应该是市场驱动逻辑的切换： 宏观基本面与企业盈利的修复将让原本稀缺的景气从单一行业向更多领域扩散。类似的场景其实也曾发生在 2020- 2021 年的市场上行趋势中：从医药→食品饮料、消费者服务→新能源+资源和原材料制造→新能源，并不能简单从市 场风格或者位置高低去简单定义切换，但是确实有大量新的行业机会出现，原有强势行业也可能有好有坏。从商品来 看，需要指出在临近降息时刻，铜、铝开始跑赢黄金。历史上看铜金比、铝金比、油金比与全球制造业 PMI 走势高度 正相关，我们此前已经讨论了制造业抬头的迹象，未来伴随着美联储的降息落地，可能会进一步带动制造业活动继续 上行，与制造业活动高度相关的铜金比明显落后于当前制造业活动强度，有较大修复空间。 国内走出通缩：前置的信号 资本市 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a shift in driving logic rather than a simple switch between growth and value styles or sector performance, with macroeconomic improvements allowing economic recovery to spread across multiple industries [1] - Recent discussions on style switching have been misinterpreted; the focus should be on the underlying logic of market changes rather than merely high versus low performance [1][5] - Historical patterns indicate that as manufacturing activity improves, commodities like copper and aluminum are beginning to outperform gold, suggesting a potential recovery in manufacturing-related sectors [1] Group 2 - Domestic deflation concerns are easing as signals indicate a reversal in key cyclical factors, including improved export growth and profitability in the midstream manufacturing sector [2] - Recent financial data shows a mixed picture, with a slowdown in social financing growth but a rebound in new RMB loans, indicating potential for increased domestic consumption [2] - The overall inflation data remains weak, but structural improvements in PPI and core CPI suggest a recovery in midstream manufacturing profitability [2] Group 3 - There is an increasing expectation of larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by concerns over the labor market rather than inflation, which may support economic stability [3] - The potential for increased manufacturing and real estate investment in the U.S. following interest rate cuts is significant, as historical trends show a rebound in these sectors post-cut [3] - The shift in focus from service sector strength to manufacturing investment could lead to increased demand for intermediate goods [3] Group 4 - The main logic driving market changes is the recovery of global commodity demand and China's exit from deflation, with opportunities emerging in upstream resources and capital goods [5] - As profitability recovers, sectors related to domestic demand, such as food and beverage, tourism, and insurance, are expected to present investment opportunities [5]