中枢缓慢上行的震荡市

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开源证券:当前A股市场形态类似“中枢缓慢上行的震荡市”
news flash· 2025-07-28 00:41
Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is characterized as a "slowly rising oscillating market" with a long-term optimistic outlook for index breakthroughs despite existing divergences [1] Market Analysis - The market has broken through key levels, indicating a potential for long-term growth [1] - There is a recommendation to adopt a "bull market mindset" while maintaining a cautious approach typical of a "slowly rising oscillating market" [1] Investment Strategy - It is advised not to blindly chase high prices in trading and allocation [1] - The focus is on growth sectors, which are expected to outperform when market risk appetite is high [1] Sector Preferences - Recommended sectors for allocation include technology, military industry, finance, DeltaG consumption, stable dividend stocks, and gold [1]
投资策略周报:交易拥挤下的后市研判-20250727
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-27 05:44
Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, suggesting a "slowly rising oscillating market" pattern, with short-term risks of adjustment as the index approaches key levels [2][11][19] - There are two main doubts regarding the market breakthrough: "the fundamentals have not yet bottomed" and "the fiscal support for anti-involution is weak" [12][30] - The central Huijin is identified as a core driving force behind the current market breakthrough, providing stability and support through sustained long-term capital inflows [13][19] Group 2 - The trading heat is currently high, with a significant number of industries showing increased trading activity, particularly in anti-involution sectors [20][21] - The report highlights that the trading volume in several anti-involution industries has surpassed warning thresholds, indicating heightened market activity [23][28] - The report notes that while the overall trading heat is elevated, it does not necessarily indicate the end of the market rally, as seen in previous years [21][30] Group 3 - The anti-involution market phase is characterized by skepticism regarding the strength of fiscal support, despite recent policy changes that may extend the definition of anti-involution [30][31] - Future prospects for the anti-involution market depend on the strength of demand-side policies; insufficient support may lead to a temporary rebound rather than a sustained reversal [34][35] - The report outlines three advantages driving the anti-involution trend: high-level policy attention, clean chip distribution in industries, and increased market risk appetite [31][32] Group 4 - The report recommends a diversified investment strategy focusing on technology, military, finance, and stable dividend stocks, alongside gold [35][36] - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include AI, robotics, semiconductors, and consumer goods, with an emphasis on areas showing marginal improvement in profit growth [36][37] - The report suggests that the current market environment requires a "bull market mindset" while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid blind chasing of highs [35][36]