春归 ——2026年3月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 分析师：王国兴 执业证书编号：S0930524070013 分析师：郭磊 执业证书编号：S0930524060002 2026年3月2日 证券研究报告 核心观点 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 1 核心观点一：从震荡的四季度到春季行情。2月份资本市场在月初出现了一定程度的波动，随后持续回升。我们认为，波动的核心原因一方面与春 节前市场交易热度下行有关，另一方面与短期政策引导市场情绪降温、部分中长期资金短期流出有关。但短期波动并不影响市场长期趋势，春节后 市场逐步回升，交易热度也同步提升。 核心观点二：春季行情或将延续。春节后，市场交易热度出现季节性回升，为后续市场表现奠定了基础。同时，未来一个月市场将进入数据与政策 的密集验证期。1-2月份的一系列经济金融数据将逐步披露，为市场形成全年经济的基准预期奠定核心依据。从目前已披露的部分数据及高频数据 来看，经济仍然处于稳步高质量修复的趋势之中。结合此前披露的年报预告情况，预计后续经济与企业盈利数据将对资本市场形成有力支撑。此外， 全国两会将于3月召开，会议将明确全年政策基调 ...

重点关注 待定 中国1月金融数据 2/10 21:30 美国1月零售销售、核心零售销售 2/11 9:30 中国1月CPI、PPI 2/11 21:30 美国1月非农就业人数、失业率、劳动参与率 2/13 21:30 美国1月CPI、核心CPI 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 股指期货全景日报 2026/2/10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 IF主力合约（2603） | 4724.0 | +6.2↑ IF次主力合约（2602） | 4728.2 | 环比 +9.6↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） | 3093.6 | +11.4↑ IH次主力合约（2602） | 3092.8 | +12.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 8290.8 | -11.4↓ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8309.0 | -6.4↓ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8229 ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】持股过节，关注成长——2026 年 2 月五维行业比较观点 2 月行业配置观点：关注成长板块。结合我们对于 2 月主观因素的判断，五维行业比 较框架视角下，预计市场风格或主要偏向成长，高估值板块相对更值得关注。从打分 的情况来看，电子、电力设备、机械设备、有色金属、通信、计算机等行业得分较高， 未来或值得投资者重点关注。 【策略】坚守布局，持股过节——策略周专题（2026 年 2 月第 1 期） 我们认为，本轮春季行情仍然值得期待，后续市场无论是在政策方面，还是在基本面 层面，未来几个月或仍有利好消息。不过市场表现未必会一帆风顺，春节之前，市场 可能会进入短暂的震荡修正阶段。不过，我们仍然建议投资者持股过节，在春节之后， 市场交易热度会再度回升，结合假期高频数据以及产业热点消息，之后市场可能会迎 来新一轮的上涨行情。 【债券】2019-2025 年"固收+"基金简要观察——"固收+"基金研究系列之一 比较符合"固收+"基金的有一级债基、二级债基、偏债混合型基金和可转债基金。 发行方面，2024 和 2025 年这两年二级债基是发行 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structurally differentiated pattern last week, with major broad indices generally under pressure. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95 points, down 0.44% for the week [2] - The ChiNext Index and the North Star 50 both fell over 3.5%, indicating a significant pullback in growth sectors. In contrast, value styles performed relatively strongly, with the Shanghai 50 rising 1.13% and the CSI Dividend Index increasing by 1.58%, reflecting a trend of capital flowing towards undervalued, high-dividend assets [2] - Overall, the market continued to experience style switching amid high-level fluctuations, with value sectors showing relative resilience while growth sectors faced adjustment pressures [2] Industry Performance - Last week, most of the Wind first-level industries declined, with the energy sector leading the gains at 6.4%, benefiting from rising oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums. Defensive sectors such as daily consumption and finance also performed relatively well [10] - In contrast, sectors like discretionary consumption, industrials, and healthcare experienced notable declines, each falling over 3% due to weak demand and pre-holiday risk aversion [10] Fund Issuance - A total of 47 funds were issued last week, including 19 equity funds, 21 mixed funds, 4 bond funds, 2 QDII funds, and 1 FOF fund, with a total fundraising amount of 48.272 billion units [14] Fund Performance - The Wind All-Fund Index fell by 0.49% last week, with ordinary equity funds down 1.07% and equity-mixed funds down 0.76%. Bond funds experienced a slight decline of 0.09%, indicating overall pressure on fund performance, particularly in equity categories [6] Global Market Overview - Global markets showed significant differentiation last week. Among the three major U.S. indices, the S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.34%, while the Dow Jones fell by 0.42% and the Nasdaq dipped by 0.17%. European markets saw declines in France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX by 0.20% and 1.45%, respectively, while the UK's FTSE 100 rose by 0.79% [4] - In Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell by 0.97%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.38%, and the Korean Composite Index surged by 4.70%, becoming the best-performing index globally [4] Bond Market Overview - The convertible bond index fell by 2.61% last week, while the 10-year government bond futures rose slightly by 0.10%. The 30-year main contract dropped by 0.33%, reflecting a defensive positioning by investors amid unclear policy expectations and rising credit risk concerns [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends in A-shares, highlighting significant sell-offs in growth sectors and the implications of financing regulations on market behavior [5][6][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares experienced a notable index-level pullback, primarily affecting growth sectors [5]. - Financing positions recorded their first net sell-off in 26 years, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6]. - The recent financing regulations, which increased margin requirements from 80% to 100%, may have contributed to this sell-off [6]. Group 2: ETF Activity - Broad-based ETFs saw substantial net sell-offs, with over 58 billion sold in a single day, and a total of over 240 billion in three days [8]. - The trading volume of major ETFs has decreased compared to previous days, suggesting a cooling off in market enthusiasm [8][10]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The satellite and commercial aerospace sectors have experienced significant declines, with the satellite industry index dropping over 20% from its peak [11]. - The article attributes this decline to speculative trading and the influence of e-commerce and content platforms promoting high-risk investments [14]. Group 4: Investment Platforms - WeBank, a leading internet bank, offers advantages for personal investors, including T+0.5 redemption for funds, enhancing capital efficiency [19][20]. - New users of WeBank can benefit from discounted fund purchases by completing a financial literacy course [21]. - WeBank's stringent volatility control for financial products is seen as beneficial for clients [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that despite a decline in various indices, there is significant capital inflow into related ETFs, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment in the growth sectors of the market [1][4]. - The ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index fell by 1.3%, the ChiNext Growth Index decreased by 2.2%, and the overall ChiNext Index dropped by 2.3% during the week [1][3]. - The ChiNext ETF (159915) saw a net inflow of over 2.5 billion yuan in the first four trading days of the week, indicating strong investor interest [1][4]. Group 2 - The strategic emerging industries, particularly in the power equipment, communication, and electronics sectors, account for nearly 60% of the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index [4]. - The ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index is composed of 200 stocks with medium market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of representative companies in the ChiNext market [4]. - The ChiNext Growth Index consists of 50 stocks that exhibit strong growth characteristics and good liquidity, with the power equipment, pharmaceutical, and communication sectors making up about 60% of this index [4]. Group 3 - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the ChiNext Index is 39.7 times, while the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index has a P/E ratio of 100.4 times, and the ChiNext Growth Index stands at 39.5 times [3][5]. - The rolling P/E ratio indicates the valuation of the indices, with lower ratios suggesting relative affordability compared to historical levels [5]. - The ChiNext Index has shown a cumulative increase of 45.8% year-to-date, while the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index has risen by 23.9%, and the ChiNext Growth Index has increased by 65.1% [7].

Core Insights - The core point of the article is that insurance companies, particularly Ruizhong Life Insurance, are increasingly engaging in shareholding activities, specifically targeting H-shares, with a notable trend expected to continue into 2026 [1][5]. Group 1: Shareholding Activities - Ruizhong Life Insurance announced it has acquired 5% of Qingdao Beer H-shares, totaling 32.764 million shares [2][9]. - Since 2025, there have been 38 instances of insurance companies acquiring shares, marking a new high since 2016, involving 14 insurance institutions and 27 listed companies [2][9]. - A significant portion of these acquisitions involves repeated purchases of the same stock, with companies like Hongkang Life and Ping An Life making multiple acquisitions of the same H-shares [2][9]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The trend of insurance companies favoring H-shares is evident, with 84% of the 38 acquisitions in 2025 targeting H-shares [3][11]. - H-shares are perceived as undervalued compared to A-shares, making them attractive for long-term investments focused on dividend income [3][11]. - Tax incentives, such as exemptions on corporate income tax for dividends from H-shares held for over 12 months, enhance the appeal of H-shares for insurance companies [4][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the enthusiasm for shareholding will persist into 2026, with a potential shift towards growth sectors while maintaining a strong focus on traditional sectors [5][13]. - The current low-interest-rate environment and regulatory encouragement for long-term equity investments are expected to drive continued growth in shareholding activities [6][13]. - Traditional sectors like finance, energy, and public utilities currently dominate insurance investments, but there is an anticipated gradual increase in allocations towards technology and growth sectors [6][14].

Group 1 - The average return of private equity securities investment funds with performance records has exceeded 20% this year, with a positive return ratio of 90.66% as of November 30 [1][2] - Among various strategies, stock strategies lead with an average return of 27.07%, and 91.78% of products have achieved positive returns [2] - Multi-asset strategies follow with an 18.78% return, while bond strategies lag behind with an average return of 7.75% [2] Group 2 - The total amount of dividends distributed by private equity funds has reached 173.38 billion yuan this year, a significant increase of 236.59% compared to the same period last year [3] - Stock strategies are the main contributors to dividends, accounting for 76.24% of the total amount distributed [3] - The increase in dividends is attributed to strong fund performance, a high proportion of positive return products, and a surge in funds flowing into stock strategy private equity funds [3] Group 3 - The growth sectors, including technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, are expected to provide significant investment opportunities in the coming year [4] - Continued policy support is anticipated to drive economic recovery, enhancing the fundamental factors that influence the stock market [4] - The technology sector, particularly AI, is seen as a key driver for domestic industrial upgrades, with expected increases in capital expenditure [4]

Core Insights - The market is currently experiencing volatility, with the dual innovation sector showing a pullback after a strong performance, while sectors like medical services, photovoltaic equipment, and batteries demonstrate resilience [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The growth sector has been boosted by multiple factors, including the recent policy announcement from the State Council on November 10, which emphasizes the importance of scenario innovation and provides opportunities for large-scale validation for tech companies [1] - Prices for upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers in the new energy sector have stabilized and begun to rise, indicating positive signals in the market [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term fluctuations, signs of macroeconomic recovery are becoming clearer, leading to a stabilization in the performance of growth-oriented assets after an initial emotional release [1] - From a long-term investment perspective, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, which represent a new production capacity cycle and the trend of domestic substitution, offer high allocation value due to reasonable valuations and improving fundamentals [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588080) and the Growth Enterprise Market ETF (159915) are leading products tracking their respective boards, with a management fee rate of only 0.15% per year, providing investors with a low-cost way to capture investment opportunities in the dual innovation sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of global capital markets driven by major central banks' easing monetary policies and the AI investment boom, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading the way [3] - The performance of the A-share market is characterized by a structural advantage in growth styles, particularly in the "dual innovation" sectors represented by the ChiNext and STAR Market, which outperformed the main board [3] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed strong performance, with the technology sector recovering in Q3 after a weak Q2, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Technology Index outperforming the Hang Seng Index [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong market's rise was supported by continuous inflows of southbound funds, which became a driving force for the market's upward trend [3] - The mixed fund, Hongde Honghua, optimized its holdings in the technology sector in Q3 after increasing its allocation in the previous quarter, indicating a strategic shift towards growth sectors [3][4] - The fund manager, Qin Yi, emphasized a focus on growth sectors, particularly in technology and new energy, as the global landscape evolves towards two major tech systems between China and the US, benefiting companies in the AI supply chain [3][4] Group 3 - The fund manager also pointed out the potential in stable income sectors, where some stocks have become attractive despite lower growth potential, offering good valuation and stability [4] - There is an emerging opportunity in cyclical sectors, which have generally underperformed due to weak domestic demand, but leading companies in these sectors are showing resilience and could benefit significantly once demand improves [4] - The formation of MACD golden cross signals indicates positive momentum for certain stocks, suggesting potential upward trends in the market [4]