Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino - US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the long - term supply - demand gap is the key for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino - US talks supporting the US soybean market, strong long - term bullish sentiment under weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums supporting long - term contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors involve supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to monitor the departure of long - position funds in the near - term contracts for futures - spot convergence, expected soybean arrivals with a gap after December, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed meal issue and potential Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 14.1%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1642 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2531 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders**: With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, they are advised to short 25% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Feed Mills**: With low regular inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, they are recommended to buy 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - **Oil Mills**: Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they should short 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover costs [3]. 3.2 Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: The closing prices of soybean meal 01, 05, and 09 are 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with daily increases of 17, 8, and 17, and daily growth rates of 0.55%, 0.29%, and 0.55% [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing prices of rapeseed meal 01, 05, and 09 are 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with daily increases of 22, 11, and 9, and daily growth rates of 0.91%, 0.46%, and 0.33% [7][9]. - **Others**: CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1026.75 with no change, and the offshore RMB was at 7.1714, down 0.0071 or 0.1% [9]. 3.3 Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 344 (up 9), M05 - 09 is - 326 (down 9), M09 - 01 is - 18 (unchanged). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2900 (unchanged), and the basis is - 186 (down 17) [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is 60 (up 11), RM05 - 09 is - 359 (up 2), RM09 - 01 is 299 (down 13). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2590 (down 84), and the basis is - 137 (down 89) [10]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: The spot spread is 310 (unchanged), and the futures spread is 350 (up 8) [10]. 3.4 Import Costs and Pressing Profits - **Import Costs**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4770.043 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), and that of Brazilian soybeans is 3927.66 yuan/ton (down 29.05) [11]. - **Profits**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 853.473 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 133.4212 yuan/ton (down 20.3779), the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 301 yuan/ton (down 4), and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 292 yuan/ton (down 8) [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and the far - month contract prices are expected to receive marginal upward drivers with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.5%. For rapeseed meal, the range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1669 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2664 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about meal price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Trends - **Core Contradictions**: The external market is strong due to Sino - US talks, the domestic market follows positive spread logic, and the rapeseed sector is strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a fourth - quarter vessel - booking gap, and meal prices will inflect. The cost - end US soybeans have limited downside, and far - month prices may rise [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US talks support the US soybean market, bullish sentiment is strong in far - month contracts due to weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Spot - end supply pressure is reflected in the basis, and the market lacks short - selling pressure due to hedging position transfers [6]. - Near - month arrivals are sufficient (11.5 million tons in July, 11 million tons in August, 10 million tons in September), with a gap after December [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, near - month warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are signs of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks, but the market has already priced in this information [6]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: - Soybean meal futures: M01 closed at 3078, up 24 (0.79%); M05 at 2744, up 20 (0.73%); M09 at 3056, up 27 (0.89%) [7]. - Rapeseed meal futures: RM01 at 2394, up 7 (0.29%); RM05 at 2352, up 12 (0.51%); RM09 at 2722, up 3 (0.11%) [7]. - **CBOT and Exchange Rate**: CBOT yellow soybeans were at 1027.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB was at 7.1865, up 0.006 (0.08%) [10]. - **Price Spreads**: - Soybean meal spreads: M01 - 05 was 334, up 4; M05 - 09 was - 312, down 7; M09 - 01 was - 22, up 3 [11]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 was 42, down 5; RM05 - 09 was - 370, up 9; RM09 - 01 was 328, down 4 [11]. - Spot prices and basis: Soybean meal in Rizhao was 2880, up 30, with a basis of - 176, up 3; rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2655, up 22, with a basis of - 64, down 44 [11]. - Spot and futures spreads: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal was 225, up 30; the futures spread was 334, up 24 [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) was 4781.821 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import cost was 3935.15 yuan/ton, up 18.12 [12]. - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) was - 873.261 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import profit was 129.2523 yuan/ton, up 2.8987 [12]. - Canadian rapeseed import profit: The import - on - paper profit was 305, down 80; the import - spot profit was 300, down 74 [12].