| 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 11.5% | 14.1% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 0.1642 | 0.2531 | 油料产业风险管理日报 2025/07/22 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M250 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-340 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and the far - month contract prices are expected to receive marginal upward drivers with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.5%. For rapeseed meal, the range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1669 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2664 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about meal price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Trends - **Core Contradictions**: The external market is strong due to Sino - US talks, the domestic market follows positive spread logic, and the rapeseed sector is strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a fourth - quarter vessel - booking gap, and meal prices will inflect. The cost - end US soybeans have limited downside, and far - month prices may rise [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US talks support the US soybean market, bullish sentiment is strong in far - month contracts due to weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Spot - end supply pressure is reflected in the basis, and the market lacks short - selling pressure due to hedging position transfers [6]. - Near - month arrivals are sufficient (11.5 million tons in July, 11 million tons in August, 10 million tons in September), with a gap after December [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, near - month warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are signs of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks, but the market has already priced in this information [6]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: - Soybean meal futures: M01 closed at 3078, up 24 (0.79%); M05 at 2744, up 20 (0.73%); M09 at 3056, up 27 (0.89%) [7]. - Rapeseed meal futures: RM01 at 2394, up 7 (0.29%); RM05 at 2352, up 12 (0.51%); RM09 at 2722, up 3 (0.11%) [7]. - **CBOT and Exchange Rate**: CBOT yellow soybeans were at 1027.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB was at 7.1865, up 0.006 (0.08%) [10]. - **Price Spreads**: - Soybean meal spreads: M01 - 05 was 334, up 4; M05 - 09 was - 312, down 7; M09 - 01 was - 22, up 3 [11]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 was 42, down 5; RM05 - 09 was - 370, up 9; RM09 - 01 was 328, down 4 [11]. - Spot prices and basis: Soybean meal in Rizhao was 2880, up 30, with a basis of - 176, up 3; rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2655, up 22, with a basis of - 64, down 44 [11]. - Spot and futures spreads: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal was 225, up 30; the futures spread was 334, up 24 [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) was 4781.821 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import cost was 3935.15 yuan/ton, up 18.12 [12]. - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) was - 873.261 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import profit was 129.2523 yuan/ton, up 2.8987 [12]. - Canadian rapeseed import profit: The import - on - paper profit was 305, down 80; the import - spot profit was 300, down 74 [12].