油料产业风险管理日报 2025/12/09 靳晚冬（投资咨询证号：Z0022725） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 8.5% | 3.1% | | 菜粕：2250-2750 | 9.8% | 0.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M260 | 卖出 | 25% | 2850-290 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 5 | | | 0 | | 饲料厂采购 管理 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the soybean meal futures trading is on the potential reduction of the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans on the supply - side and whether China's purchase of 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans can be realized on the demand - side. If the US soybean inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will oscillate around the cost line, and domestic soybean meal will lack a unilateral driving force and follow the US market in the short term. The shipping schedule of China's US soybean purchases will determine the domestic supply [4]. - Rapeseed meal will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of supply recovery due to Sino - Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseeds after November, while demand growth is limited, so inventory is expected to rise. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.0%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3011 with no change; soybean meal 05 is 2815 with no change; soybean meal 09 is 2924 with a 9 - point increase (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2446 with a 15 - point increase (0.62%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2385 with no change; rapeseed meal 09 is 2449 with a 14 - point increase (0.57%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1121.25 with no change; the offshore RMB is 7.113 with no change [7][10]. - **Spread**: The spread of M01 - 05 is 196 with a 13 - point decrease; M05 - 09 is - 109 with a 3 - point increase; M09 - 01 is - 87 with a 10 - point increase; RM01 - 05 is 61 with a 3 - point decrease; RM05 - 09 is - 64 with a 4 - point increase; RM09 - 01 is 3 with a 1 - point decrease. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3000 with no change, and the basis is - 11 with a 1 - point increase. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2580 with no change, and the basis is 131 with a 41 - point increase. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 420 with no change, and the futures spread is 565 with a 16 - point decrease [11]. 3.3 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4763.7174 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15.3404 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 0.0057. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3825.21 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.06 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 229.79 yuan/ton. The cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 774.5882 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 2.2853 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 7.7035 [12]. - The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 889.0024 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15.3404 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 10.4113. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 216.0502 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 48.7548. The import profit of Canadian rapeseeds on the futures market is 749 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 57 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 1. The import profit of Canadian rapeseeds in the spot market is 1002 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 48 yuan/ton and no weekly change [12]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Brazilian export premiums support the price of far - month contracts from the cost side; the pricing oscillation range of the outer - market balance sheet moves up; the pressure on near - month contracts is alleviated during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and soybean meal is at a seasonal inventory high. Brazilian planting is going smoothly, and the expected high yield in South America suppresses the far - month contract price. The supply gap in the far - month is filled under the background of Sino - US trade talks and procurement [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decrease, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a single - sided driver. The near - month contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - month contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the long - near and short - far positive spread logic [4]. - Rapeseed meal will remain in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expectation of additional Sino - Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, so it is regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warrant registration after the centralized cancellation of warrants in November [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.0%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is predicted to be 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans will be further reduced and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases can be realized. The domestic market has a positive spread logic of near - strong and far - weak [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will be in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected supply recovery and limited demand growth, it is regarded as weak, and attention can be paid to the warrant registration after the November cancellation [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices, the external market balance sheet's price range moves up, and the pressure on near - month contracts eases during the warrant cancellation month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The current near - month supply of imported soybeans is high, Brazilian planting is smooth with a high - yield expectation, and the far - month supply gap is filled under the Sino - US negotiation and procurement background [8]. 3.4 Market Quotes - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3012, down 5 (- 0.17%); soybean meal 05 is 2803, down 8 (- 0.28%); soybean meal 09 is 2915, down 11 (- 0.38%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2431, up 19 (0.79%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2367, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2435, down 9 (- 0.37%); CBOT soybeans are 1123, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1198, up 0.0019 (0.03%) [9]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures and spot are presented in the report, such as the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 209, up 3, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 64, up 29 [10]. 3.5 Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4759.4897 yuan/ton, up 47.3957 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 879.9197 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3817.15 yuan/ton, down 37.46 yuan/ton, with a profit of 182.5377 yuan/ton. The import cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 773.9008 yuan/ton, up 7.8381 yuan/ton. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 692 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and the spot profit is 954 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The key trading point of the current soybean meal futures lies in the export demand of US soybeans in the context of China-US negotiations. With an expected export volume of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in and limited incremental factors, the ending inventory will remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, with the smooth progress of soybean planting in Brazil, there will be limited upward driving forces. The upward space of the domestic soybean meal rebound is expected to be limited due to the high inventory pressure in the near - term. The purchase of US soybeans will lead to a downward driving force in the far - term, but the cost support will also limit the decline [4]. - The key trading point of the current rapeseed meal futures is that the domestic rapeseed meal is affected by the continuous China - Canada negotiations. In the short term, due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, the futures price shows a slightly stronger performance, but it is not advisable to chase the long position. Since the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed was announced on August 12, domestic importers have been cautious about purchasing Canadian rapeseed. The import volume this year has decreased by 42% compared with the same period last year. The fourth quarter will maintain a state of weak supply and demand. After the Chinese government decided to resume group tours to Canada on November 3, the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 9.8% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 6.9%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 18.7% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 40.2% [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Instrument | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal: The external market focuses on export demand, while the domestic market is constrained by high inventory in the near - term and the purchase of US soybeans in the far - term. Short - term attention should be paid to whether a procurement and tariff adjustment agreement is signed between China and the US this week [4]. - For rapeseed meal: Affected by China - Canada negotiations, the short - term performance is slightly stronger, but the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The new warrant registration situation after the centralized cancellation in November can be monitored [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - **Bullish factors**: The Brazilian export premium supports the far - term contract price from the cost side; the external market continues to strengthen under the background of purchasing US soybeans; the pressure in the near - term is alleviated due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month [5]. - **Bearish factors**: The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend; the smooth planting in Brazil and the expected high yield in South America suppress the far - term futures price; the supply gap in the far - term is filled under the background of China - US negotiations and procurement [6][7]. 3.5 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3015 | - 11 | - 0.36% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2818 | - 11 | - 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2935 | - 14 | - 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2497 | 6 | 0.24% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2378 | - 2 | - 0.08% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2466 | - 4 | - 0.16% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1134.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.127 | 0.0129 | 0.18% | [7] 3.6 Price Spreads - **Soybean meal spreads**: The spread between M01 and M05 is 197 (no daily change), between M05 and M09 is - 117 (up 3), and between M09 and M01 is - 80 (down 3). The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3040 (no change), and the basis is 25 (up 11) [8]. - **Rapeseed meal spreads**: The spread between RM01 and RM05 is 119 (up 8), between RM05 and RM09 is - 88 (up 2), and between RM09 and RM01 is - 31 (down 10). The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2580 (up 130), and the basis is 89 (up 27) [8]. - **Soybean meal - rapeseed meal spreads**: The spot price spread is 460 (no change), and the futures price spread is 518 (down 17) [8]. 3.7 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | 4858.2301 | - 88.7137 | 0.2633 | | Import cost of Brazilian soybeans | 4116.33 | 60.38 | 79.49 | | Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 789.9561 | - 10.8447 | - 57.4083 | | Import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | - 991.4751 | - 88.7137 | - 404.2412 | | Import profit of Brazilian soybeans | - 38.6558 | 0.6921 | - 10.2467 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (futures) | 596 | - 63 | - 135 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (spot) | 857 | - 56 | - 130 | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the context of China - US negotiations. With the expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in, the ending inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range moves up slightly. There is limited upward drive due to the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by the high near - month inventory. Buying US soybeans will bring a downward drive for the far - month, but the cost support moves up during the outer - market rebound, so the decline is also limited. The inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations. It shows slightly stronger in the short - term due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, but chasing long is not advisable. The timing of going long after November depends on subsequent warrant changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price prediction for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.2%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about high imports and low prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3] Core Contradictions - Outer - market US soybeans are export - demand - driven. Inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by high near - month inventory, and buying US soybeans will affect far - month prices. Inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations and warrant cancellation [4] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The outer - market strengthens continuously when buying US soybeans. The pressure on the near - month contract is relieved as it enters the warrant cancellation month [5][6] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The current near - month supply shows high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation. The smooth planting in Brazil and the repair of the far - month supply gap under China - US negotiations are negative factors [6][9] Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3021, up 27 (0.9%); soybean meal 05 is 2813, up 14 (0.5%); soybean meal 09 is 2930, up 12 (0.41%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2388, down 13 (- 0.54%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2342, up 7 (0.3%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2432, up 3 (0.12%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1115, up 8 (0.72%); the offshore RMB is 7.122, up 0.0089 (0.13%) [7][10] Price Spreads - For soybean meal, M01 - 05 spread is 208, up 13; M05 - 09 is - 117, up 2; M09 - 01 is - 91, down 15. For rapeseed meal, RM01 - 05 spread is 46, down 20; RM05 - 09 is - 90, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 44, up 16. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3020, up 20; the basis is - 1, down 7. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2450, unchanged; the basis is 62, up 13. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 570, up 20; the futures spread is 633, up 40 [11] Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4727.8317 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import cost is 4062.33 yuan/ton, up 20.17. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 852.6667 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import profit is - 43.7567 yuan/ton, down 15.4341. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 497 yuan/ton, down 92; in the spot market, it is 765 yuan/ton, down 92 [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the background of China - US negotiations. The expectation of Chinese procurement of US soybeans will drive the rebound of US soybeans, but the rebound is limited without actual policies or orders. Brazil's soybean planting progress is improving, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upward space of the inner - market soybean series is limited by high near - month inventory, but there is also support below. The inner - market rapeseed series should focus on China - Canada relations and is affected by supply restoration expectations and soybean meal [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - In the near - month, the high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, the increase in oil mill crushing volume, and the resumption of seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal are negative factors. The increase in warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of China - US and China - Canada negotiations also put downward pressure on the meal market [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.1%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 18.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.2% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to prevent inventory losses [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, down 1 with a 0.03% decline [7]. 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread and Import Cost and Profit - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The import costs and profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, and the import profits of Canadian rapeseed are also given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4430.9578 yuan/ton, up 19.2789 yuan/ton [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current trading focus of the soybean meal futures market is that the US soybean market is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations. It will continue to fluctuate narrowly at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report's potential adjustment to the previous yield are to be followed. The soybean planting progress in Brazil is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop's yield. The upward space of the domestic soybean complex is restricted by the high inventory pressure in the near - term, and short - term sentiment trading is affected by China - US negotiations. - The current trading focus of the rapeseed meal futures market is that with limited arrivals of rapeseed raw materials in the future, inventory will show seasonal destocking. China - Canada negotiations affect market expectations, and it will mainly follow the trend of soybean meal in the short term. The timing of accelerating long positions depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.5% and a historical percentile of 34.2% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.3% and a historical percentile of 52.8% over three years [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs due to high protein inventory and concerns about price drops | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in case of price increases | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and cover production costs due to concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal, the external US soybean market is export - demand - driven under China - US negotiations, with short - term USDA suspension and Brazilian planting progress to watch. The domestic market is restricted by high inventory and negotiation sentiment. - For rapeseed meal, with limited raw material arrivals, inventory will destock seasonally. It follows soybean meal in the short term, and the long - entry timing depends on warehouse receipts [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps. - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - In the near - term, the inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend after the resumption of oil mill crushing. - The warehouse receipt pressure of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure dominate the market. - The expectations of China - US and China - Canada negotiations have led to a weakening of the meal futures market [6]. 3.6 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2889 | - 6 | - 0.21% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2743 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2860 | 7 | 0.25% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2321 | - 29 | - 1.23% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2303 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2396 | 2 | 0.08% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1032.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1233 | 0.0067 | 0.09% | [7][9] 3.7 Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 159 | 0 | RM01 - 05 | 45 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 117 | 0 | RM05 - 09 | - 89 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 42 | 0 | RM09 - 01 | 44 | 0 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2970 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 75 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2480 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 130 | - 44 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 490 | 0 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 545 | 0 | [10] 3.8 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4397.7754 | - 59.8076 | 0.005 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 4001.68 | 33.35 | 75.73 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 715.0854 | - 8.1371 | - 1.6835 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 590.0704 | - 59.8076 | - 7.1389 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 3.5993 | 8.8209 | - 0.9582 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 766 | - 26 | - 206 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1025 | - 29 | - 180 | [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the meal futures market is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of China-US negotiations. The US government subsidizes farmers with tariff revenues, but the market expects the price to remain in a narrow range at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders are placed. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report are also points of concern. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is limited by high inventories in the near term, and the market is expected to rebound with reduced sensitivity and amplitude. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly influenced by the results of China-Canada negotiations and the supply recovery expectations and soybean meal prices [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - The near - month supply is under pressure as the port and oil mill inventories of imported soybeans in China are high, the oil mill crushing volume is rising, and the soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The rapeseed meal follows the decline of soybean meal but is slightly stronger. The rising warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal also dominates the near - month supply pressure narrative on the market [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.9%. The forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.5% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventories, to prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - Feed mills with low procurement inventories can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, up 10 (0.34%); soybean meal 05 is 2746, down 8 (-0.29%); soybean meal 09 is 2858, down 10 (-0.35%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2392, up 1 (0.04%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2315, down 13 (-0.56%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2403, down 11 (-0.46%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1007, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1241, unchanged (0%) [7]. 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 168, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 63, down 38; M05 - 09 is -114, down 6; RM05 - 09 is -86, down 5; M09 - 01 is -54, up 22; RM09 - 01 is 23, up 43. The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2990, unchanged, and the basis is 68, up 60. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2520, down 30, and the basis is 129, up 14. The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 470, up 60, and the futures spread is 531, unchanged [9]. 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4373.7225 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.0402 weekly. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3897.84 yuan/ton, down 2.21 daily and 22.69 weekly. The profit of US Gulf soybean imports (23%) is -544.0825 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 58.5843 weekly. The profit of Brazilian soybean imports is 89.1616 yuan/ton, up 54.7861 daily and 0.8951 weekly. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 972 yuan/ton, up 29 daily and 9 weekly, and the spot profit is 1205 yuan/ton, up 40 daily and 45 weekly [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China - US negotiations. The market will remain in a narrow bottom - range oscillation until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The short - term impact of the quarterly inventory report during the holiday is neutral, and attention should be paid to whether the October USDA report will adjust the previous yield. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is recovering, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is constrained by high near - term inventory, and the domestic market is expected to be under pressure, but there are opportunities for long - position valuation repair supported by costs. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly affected by China - Canada negotiation results and is influenced by supply recovery expectations and soybean meal in the short term [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps, and the Brazilian export premium supports far - month contract prices from the cost side. However, the near - term supply is high, with high port and oil - mill inventories of imported soybeans in China, increasing oil - mill crushing volumes, and a seasonal inventory build - up trend for soybean meal. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal but is slightly stronger. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure the dominant factor in the market [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.6% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - For feed mills with low inventory and wanting to purchase based on orders, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2939 | 11 | 0.38% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2755 | 17 | 0.62% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2863 | 16 | 0.56% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2435 | 14 | 0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2334 | 17 | 0.73% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2415 | 12 | 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1029.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1527 | 0.0096 | 0.13% | [6][8] 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 184 with a daily change of - 6, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 101 with a daily change of - 3. - The M05 - 09 spread of soybean meal is - 108 with a daily change of 1, and the RM05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal is - 81 with a daily change of 5. - The M09 - 01 spread of soybean meal is - 76 with a daily change of 5, and the RM09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal is - 20 with a daily change of - 2. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2950 with a daily change of 10, and the basis is 11 with a daily change of - 1. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2540 with no daily change, and the basis is 105 with no daily change. - The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a daily change of 10, and the futures price spread is 504 with a daily change of - 3 [9]. 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4471.4503 | - 32.1737 | 0.031 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3975.71 | 67.65 | 65.91 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 727.0651 | - 12.6593 | - 12.0831 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 622.9153 | - 32.1737 | - 44.9143 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 30.936 | - 5.1388 | - 0.2864 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 1027 | 29 | 188 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1247 | 49 | 211 | [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647), Jin Wandong (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03118199) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies Price Forecast - Monthly price range for soybean meal: 2800 - 3300 yuan, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.8%, and historical percentile (3 - year) is 3.8% [3] - Monthly price range for rapeseed meal: 2350 - 2750 yuan, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.6%, and historical percentile (3 - year) is 15.3% [3] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory, to prevent losses from inventory and price decline, sell 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 yuan [3] - For feed mills with low inventory, to prevent cost increase from price rise, buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 yuan [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices, sell 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 yuan [3] Group 3: Core Contradictions Soybean Meal - Short - term: Argentina's export tax exemption policy has a negative impact on the market. Argentina's old - crop sales progress is about 60% - 70%, with a maximum exportable volume of 10 million tons to China. The policy may support domestic soybean meal cost by approaching Brazilian prices [4] - Long - term: Focus on the impact of Sino - US trade relations on soybean supply [4] Rapeseed Meal - Short - term: Follows soybean meal, but will be stronger than soybean products before November due to China's extension of anti - dumping investigation on Canada. After November, it will face the issue of Australian rapeseed arrivals, and inventory may increase by the end of the year [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Bullish Factors - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to supply - demand gap [7] - Brazil's export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [7] Bearish Factors - High inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, increasing oil mill crush volume, and seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal but is slightly stronger [4] - After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, leading to a dominant supply pressure narrative in the near - month market [5] Group 5: Futures Prices and Spreads Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: Closing price is 2928 yuan, down 106 yuan (-3.49%) [8] - Soybean meal 05: Closing price is 2733 yuan, down 49 yuan (-1.76%) [8] - Soybean meal 09: Closing price is 2843 yuan, down 48 yuan (-1.66%) [8] - Rapeseed meal 01: Closing price is 2447 yuan, down 81 yuan (-3.2%) [8] - Rapeseed meal 05: Closing price is 2328 yuan, down 45 yuan (-1.9%) [8] - Rapeseed meal 09: Closing price is 2411 yuan, down 36 yuan (-1.47%) [8] - CBOT yellow soybeans: Closing price is 1011.25, unchanged [8] - Offshore RMB: Closing price is 7.1178, up 0.0241 (0.34%) [8] Spreads - M01 - 05 spread is 195 yuan, down 57 yuan; RM01 - 05 spread is 119 yuan, down 36 yuan [9] - M05 - 09 spread is - 110 yuan, down 1 yuan; RM05 - 09 spread is - 83 yuan, down 9 yuan [9] - M09 - 01 spread is - 85 yuan, up 58 yuan; RM09 - 01 spread is - 36 yuan, up 45 yuan [9] - Soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2930 yuan, down 50 yuan; basis is 2 yuan, up 56 yuan [9] - Rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2655 yuan, up 145 yuan; basis is 127 yuan, up 139 yuan [9] - Spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 275 yuan, down 50 yuan; futures price difference is 481 yuan, down 25 yuan [9] Group 6: Import Costs and Profits - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%): 4423.6298 yuan/ton, down 74.2222 yuan daily, up 0.0177 yuan weekly [10] - Brazilian soybean import cost: 3934.29 yuan/ton, down 11.28 yuan daily, down 121.95 yuan weekly [10] - Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%): - 719.2894 yuan, up 9.2866 yuan daily, up 14.2315 yuan weekly [10] - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%): - 593.4053 yuan, down 74.2222 yuan daily, down 25.1891 yuan weekly [10] - Brazilian soybean import profit: 135.1432 yuan, up 45.0221 yuan daily, up 3.9232 yuan weekly [10] - Canadian rapeseed import profit (on - paper): 987 yuan, up 56 yuan daily, up 224 yuan weekly [10] - Canadian rapeseed import profit (spot): 1169 yuan, up 62 yuan daily, up 244 yuan weekly [10]