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钟南山发声,流行病最新判断!中药ETF(560080)涨超1%,二季度能否迎拐点?机构:把握三大方向!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 06:47
Group 1 - The A-share market indices collectively rose, with the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) ETF (560080) increasing by 1.05%, and several key stocks in the sector, such as Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Zhaoli Pharmaceutical, rising over 3% [1] - The recent increase in COVID-19 infection rates has been noted, but experts believe the current wave is manageable and not a cause for panic, with symptoms similar to previous infections [3] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector performed well last week, with the TCM sector leading the sub-sectors in growth, as reported by Donghai Securities [3] Group 2 - The first quarter of 2025 posed challenges for TCM companies, but a potential turning point is expected in the second quarter, driven by factors such as decreased flu incidence and reduced inventory levels [6] - Among TCM companies, nearly half achieved positive growth in net profit, with notable companies like Jiaying Pharmaceutical and Te Yi Pharmaceutical showing significant revenue and profit increases [7] - The inventory levels of TCM companies have decreased, indicating a potential for improved profitability moving forward [7] Group 3 - Institutional holdings in TCM have been declining, with the proportion falling to 0.46% by the first quarter of 2025, suggesting a potential for renewed interest from funds in domestic TCM under current U.S. tariff policies [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the TCM index is 25.7, which is below the 10-year average, indicating that valuations are relatively low [8] Group 4 - Key indicators for TCM include flu data and the price index of medicinal materials, with expectations of reduced revenue growth pressure for TCM companies starting in the second quarter of 2025 [10] - The price index for medicinal materials has been declining, which is expected to alleviate gross margin pressures for TCM companies [10] Group 5 - Investment strategies favoring strong brand power in state-owned enterprises are recommended, as these companies benefit from reforms and have higher dividend yields [12] - A recommended investment portfolio includes TCM companies with improving gross margins and those benefiting from state-owned enterprise reforms [14]