"当大周期失效，新的宏观坐标在哪里"，这是近期中泰资管基金经理唐军做客播客节目"面基"的内容标 题。 大周期、宏观……原本担心用这些词汇构成的严肃标题，在情绪高涨的市场，可能关注者寥寥。 没想到，一周时间，已经有6万多用户收听了这档近150分钟的节目，而且划重点和做笔记的用户非常多。 众多反馈让我们意识到，投资者比我们想象中更爱学习，精彩的内容自有发光的舞台。 有人很快做了笔记，并给出了精炼又颇具启发的总结： 来源：公众号"莱言维语" 也有人会将精彩段落收藏： 来源：小宇宙APP当期节目点评 如果说投资的本质是认知的变现，那么我们非常乐见这样的互动——通过基金经理的分享，投资路上的好 朋友们在认知上有启发、有所得。 言归正传，回到这期访谈，期间你会听到： 如果你对配置感兴趣，也欢迎你开启这次专业又硬核的思想碰撞~ 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 ...

Core Viewpoint - Asset allocation is a complex and multi-dimensional task, often referred to as "physical labor" due to the extensive research required to achieve effective configurations [1][2][27]. Group 1: Passive vs. Active Allocation - Passive allocation, which relies on diversification to reduce volatility, faces challenges in practice, particularly for domestic investors due to limited asset classes and the poor performance of key assets like A-shares [5][9][27]. - Active allocation aims to enhance returns beyond passive strategies by making informed predictions about expected returns, addressing the shortcomings of passive allocation [2][27]. Group 2: Issues with Passive Allocation - Determining expected returns using historical data can lead to "chasing performance," where investors favor assets that have recently performed well, skewing allocation models [5][9]. - The correlation between assets is not stable; for instance, the historical negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds has weakened since the 2008 financial crisis, impacting the effectiveness of diversification [6][9]. - The performance of passive allocation is heavily dependent on the underlying assets' returns and their correlations, which can be problematic in markets with limited asset classes [9][27]. Group 3: The Complexity of Active Allocation - Active allocation involves timing decisions, which many investors find challenging, leading to skepticism about its feasibility [17][19]. - While achieving a high accuracy rate in timing is difficult, even a modest success rate can significantly enhance investment returns when combined with sound risk management [18][19]. - The macroeconomic drivers influencing asset performance can change, necessitating continuous adjustments to research frameworks and strategies [21][27]. Group 4: Multi-Dimensional Decision Making - Effective asset allocation requires multiple low-correlation return streams to improve the probability of successful outcomes, as relying on a single asset is often insufficient [22][23]. - A structured decision-making framework that incorporates both strategic and tactical allocations can enhance the robustness of investment strategies [23][24]. - Strict risk budgeting is essential to ensure that asset allocations align with the overall risk tolerance of the portfolio, preventing forced liquidations during market fluctuations [24][25].