Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the "Investment Clock" as a classic asset allocation method that aligns with economic cycles, emphasizing its effectiveness in identifying optimal asset classes during different phases of the economic cycle [2][5]. Economic Cycle Overview - The economic cycle consists of four phases: recession, recovery, overheating, and stagflation, driven by the "animal spirits" of investors and businesses, which oscillate between greed and fear [3][4]. - Key indicators for determining the economic cycle include GDP growth and CPI inflation, which help classify the economy into the four phases [4]. Investment Clock Theory - The Investment Clock concept, initially proposed by Merrill Lynch, suggests that different asset classes perform variably across the economic cycle, with bonds leading during recession, stocks during recovery, commodities during overheating, and cash during stagflation [5][6]. - Historical data from the U.S. (1970-2020) and China (2001-2020) supports the effectiveness of the Investment Clock framework in guiding asset allocation [8][13]. Asset Allocation Strategies Recovery Phase - In the recovery phase, the recommended asset allocation is: stocks > commodities > bonds > cash, as stocks tend to outperform due to improving corporate earnings and declining interest rates [20][21]. - Key indicators of recovery include a shift to accommodative policies, improvement in leading economic indicators, and a warming market sentiment [19][20]. Overheating Phase - During the overheating phase, the optimal allocation shifts to: commodities > stocks > cash/bonds, as commodity prices rise due to strong demand and inflationary pressures [26][28]. - Characteristics of this phase include strong economic data, rising inflation, and a shift in policy towards tightening [24][25]. Stagflation Phase - In the stagflation phase, the focus should be on cash > bonds > commodities/stocks, as economic growth slows while inflation remains high, necessitating a defensive investment strategy [36][37]. - Key indicators include slowing economic growth, rising inflation, and a challenging policy environment [33][34]. Recession Phase - The recession phase favors bonds > cash > stocks > commodities, as bonds typically provide the best returns during economic downturns due to falling interest rates and increased demand for safe assets [39][44]. - Indicators of recession include declining GDP growth and inflation, rising unemployment, and a shift towards accommodative monetary policy [41][42]. Summary of Investment Clock - The Investment Clock serves as a strategic framework for asset allocation, suggesting that investors should buy bonds during recessions, stocks during recoveries, commodities during overheating, and hold cash during stagflation to achieve superior returns [49][50].

Summary of Key Points from Commodity Market Outlook and Q&A Industry Overview - The report discusses the global commodity market outlook, focusing on structural changes and price dynamics as of 2025 and projections for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Structural Changes in Commodity Market**: - Three main structural changes are identified: 1. Geopolitical risks significantly altering supply dynamics, particularly in the Middle East, affecting oil markets [2]. 2. Strategic stockpiling demand driven by security considerations, especially in emerging markets for energy and metals [2]. 3. Uncertain growth in emerging demand, with overall commodity demand growth slowing [2]. - **Price Dynamics**: - Oil price baseline adjusted to $75-80 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, with a potential for significant inventory impacts if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked [5][6]. - Copper prices supported by global electrification, with a safe incentive price range around $12,000 per ton [5][6]. - Aluminum prices expected to decline to $3,000 per ton by Q4 2026 due to overseas capacity increases [5][6]. - **Market Rotation Characteristics**: - Long-term rotation characteristics are not evident, while mid-term shows clear patterns with industrial metals leading economic cycles by about three months [3]. - Short-term rotation is influenced by capital flows, with potential linkages between energy and agricultural products during significant fund inflows or outflows [3]. Additional Important Content - **Black Metals and Agricultural Products**: - Black metals, particularly iron ore, face downward pressure from new project outputs and real estate investment pressures [7]. - Agricultural markets are influenced by oil price transmission and climate shifts, with specific forecasts for soybeans, corn, and pork prices [7]. - **Gold Market Dynamics**: - The primary driver for rising gold prices is investment demand, particularly from ETF holdings, despite a slowdown in central bank purchases [8]. - Current conditions do not indicate a peak for gold prices, as necessary conditions for a top have not yet formed [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points regarding the commodity market's current state and future outlook, highlighting significant trends, price expectations, and underlying factors influencing various sectors.

Group 1: Economic Context - The 1970s experienced stagflation characterized by high inflation and economic stagnation, with CPI exceeding 10% and oil consumption nearing 2017 levels[2] - The "Great Society" programs initiated in the 1960s significantly increased total demand, contributing to inflationary pressures in the 1970s[12] - The U.S. transitioned from a net exporter to a net importer around 1965, exacerbating inflation due to increased reliance on foreign goods[16] Group 2: Policy Responses - The Federal Reserve's policies during the 1970s, including significant monetary expansion, failed to control inflation and were often influenced by political pressures[6] - Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Carter implemented fiscal policies aimed at stimulating the economy, often prioritizing employment over inflation control[55] - The introduction of price controls in 1971 by Nixon aimed to curb inflation but led to shortages and did not address underlying economic issues[39] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Gold emerged as the only major asset with positive real returns during the 1970s, while stocks and bonds faced significant adjustments due to high inflation[2] - The performance of various sectors was influenced by inflation cycles, with inflation-sensitive sectors outperforming during periods of rising prices[3] - The 1970s saw a shift in market valuation preferences, favoring high ROE companies during economic upturns and low PB companies during downturns[4] Group 4: Historical Lessons - The analysis draws parallels between the 1970s stagflation and current economic conditions, highlighting the importance of understanding historical policy mistakes[6] - The experiences of Japan during the 1970s, where it achieved significant economic growth through industrial transformation, provide insights for current economic strategies[4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the macroeconomic environment in China and draws comparisons with the U.S. economic situation in 2011, particularly in the context of inflation and monetary policy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Current Macroeconomic Environment**: The current macroeconomic environment in China is more comparable to the U.S. in 2011, characterized by "weak recovery + credit repair + external supply shock inflation," rather than the "overheating/cooling" scenario of 2022 [1][2][3]. 2. **Monetary Policy Priorities**: The experience from 2011 indicates that when facing fiscal tightening and inflation contradictions, central banks tend to prioritize monetary easing to counteract the economic weakening caused by fiscal policies [1][3]. 3. **Market Trading Logic**: In major economies, markets tend to first trade inflation concerns before shifting focus to recession worries, guided by clear monetary easing stances from central banks [1][5]. 4. **Core Risk Factors**: The primary risk currently is the potential for monetary "decoupling" and loss of central bank credibility. However, the underlying credit of the Renminbi is solid, making the risk of monetary decoupling very low [1][7]. 5. **Comparison with 2022**: The comparison of the current situation with 2022 is deemed inappropriate due to significant differences in macroeconomic backgrounds between the U.S. and China. In 2022, the U.S. was in an overheating state, while China faced credit contraction [2][3]. 6. **Historical Reference**: The macroeconomic environment of the U.S. in 2011 serves as a more relevant reference for analyzing the current situation in China, as both were in a "credit repair" phase following significant economic disruptions [3][4]. 7. **Market Performance Differences**: In 2011, China experienced a "stagflation kill everything" scenario with poor performance in both stocks and bonds, while the U.S. market showed more complexity with a bond bull market and mixed stock performance despite external supply shocks [4][5]. 8. **Monetary Policy Stance**: The Federal Reserve maintained a loose monetary policy in 2011 despite high inflation, believing that inflation was temporary due to structural weaknesses in the economy and stable long-term inflation expectations [6]. 9. **Current Market Risks**: The greatest risk in the current market is not merely inflation or external shocks but the risk of monetary decoupling, which could lead to a loss of confidence in central bank policies and potential monetary crises [7]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic structures and policies when comparing different time periods and markets, highlighting that external factors must be interpreted through the lens of internal economic conditions [5][6].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of participating in the A-share market during the calendar rebound window, suggesting a high allocation in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][4] - The market experienced fluctuations with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.36%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.41%, and the CSI 500 index by 1.88% in the last week before the Spring Festival [2] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of recession, with significant data indicating a slowdown in personal consumption and real wages, suggesting a cooling of inflation and a shift away from previous economic overheating [3] Group 2 - The main board's timing strategy suggests increasing positions to a high allocation due to manageable impacts from the U.S. recession on the domestic economy, which has been under pressure for over a year [4] - The small-cap sector is advised to follow the main board with a high allocation, while being cautious of potential risks towards the end of February, indicating a need for timely profit-taking if market conditions change [4] - The short-term momentum model recommends focusing on the media industry as a sector of interest [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The factors affecting commodity prices are complex, with the core factors being financial and commodity attributes. The financial attributes include macro - liquidity, risk preference, and the role of the US dollar as a pricing "anchor". The commodity attributes involve supply - demand fundamentals, including both normal and abnormal influencing factors [2][3][7]. - Commodity prices do not rise and fall synchronously but follow a certain rotation order. Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios drives price rotation. Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products" [11][15][19]. - The current commodity pricing is influenced by the re - construction of the monetary "anchor", the abnormal supply - demand factors in commodity attributes, such as technological revolutions, industrial transformation, supply - chain re - construction under geopolitical influence, and strategic reserves. These factors have a more significant impact on prices compared to traditional supply - demand drivers [3]. - In the past two years, some commodities have shown strong performance, mainly led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The current commodity rally is mainly based on macro - narrative logic changes rather than traditional demand - driven cycles. If the economic cycle recovers more clearly, the traditional demand and cycle rotation will contribute more to commodity price increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Pricing Factors and Rotation Analysis Framework 3.1.1 Commodity Pricing Factors - Financial attributes: Conventional factors include macro - liquidity (e.g., monetary policy, interest rates, inflation expectations) and risk preference. At a higher level, the US dollar serves as the pricing "anchor" for commodities, and its "de - anchoring" can lead to significant price re - evaluation [2][7]. - Commodity attributes: Core drivers are based on supply and demand. Normal factors include supply - demand gaps, production costs, and inventory levels. Abnormal factors on the demand side include technological revolutions, industrial transformation, and national strategic reserves; on the supply side, they include policy regulation, wars, pandemics, export controls, and weather [3][8]. 3.1.2 Commodity Rotation Framework - Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios (price - ratio effect) promotes price diffusion and rotation. For example, when the price ratio of copper to gold or oil exceeds the historical average, it may trigger a mean - reversion [15]. - Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products". In the recession period, precious metals are favored for their hedging value; in the recovery period, industrial metals take the lead; in the over - heating period, energy performs strongly; and in the stagflation period, agricultural products make up for the late - stage increase [15][19]. 3.2 Two Rounds of Typical Commodity Cycle Trends Review - The first round was in the 1970s, during the depression of the fourth Kondratieff cycle. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and two oil crises led to a tripling of the CRB index. Gold led the rally, followed by oil, and then agricultural products [28][34]. - The second round was in the early 21st century, driven by China's rise. The CRB index also tripled. LME copper led the early stage, oil had a more significant increase in the later stage, and agricultural products had a late - stage rally [28][37]. - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, commodities followed the economic cycle rotation. Precious metals led in early 2009, industrial metals rebounded in the second and third quarters of 2009, oil prices climbed as the economy recovered, and after 2011, oil and agricultural products remained stable while precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined [40]. 3.3 Current Fundamental Situation and Rotation Status - In recent years, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have risen significantly, leading to expectations of a new commodity super - cycle. In 2025, precious metals and non - ferrous metals led the rally, energy was at the bottom, and agricultural products had not yet started [42]. - The drivers include the decline of the US dollar's reserve status, the double - loose monetary and fiscal policies in the Kondratieff depression, the demand for upstream resources driven by the AI technological revolution, the deepening of geopolitical contradictions leading to increased strategic reserves, and the return of manufacturing. However, due to the uncertain economic recovery, the typical commodity diffusion and rotation based on the cycle have not yet occurred. If the traditional economic cycle rotation becomes more obvious, the commodity rally will spread to black metals, energy, and agricultural products [46][54].

Group 1 - The current surge in metal prices, including gold, silver, and copper, is attributed to cyclical fluctuations rather than geopolitical factors [2][3] - The global economy is experiencing a downward phase of the debt cycle and an upward phase of the technology cycle, which are driving the price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals [2][3] - The Merrill Clock is used to analyze the debt cycle, indicating that rising metal prices are characteristic of the overheating and stagflation phases, with current conditions suggesting a stagflation environment in developed economies [3] Group 2 - Upstream companies, particularly those with mining operations, benefit from rising metal prices and should focus on expanding production capacity to capitalize on cyclical opportunities [4] - Downstream companies in sectors like AI, electric equipment, and automotive manufacturing, which are significant consumers of metals, can manage rising raw material costs by securing long-term price agreements and potentially passing costs to consumers [4] - Companies affected by the debt cycle, such as those in the photovoltaic and construction industries, face challenges in passing on rising costs due to weak downstream demand and should consider controlling and reducing production capacity [5] Group 3 - Some companies are exploring material substitutions and recycling to mitigate the impact of rising metal prices, such as adopting technologies that reduce silver usage in photovoltaic applications [6] - The future of metal price trends is closely linked to the effectiveness of the technology cycle, particularly in AI infrastructure, which could influence demand for metals [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global liquidity environment will maintain a loose tone, with marginal adjustments in the pace and amplitude. China's macro - policies will remain positive, with fiscal support for "two major" construction and "new - quality productivity" and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. - The industrial capacity cycle has bottomed out, and there are signs of a turning point. In 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to stabilize in the first half and rise marginally in the second half [23]. - The inventory cycle is approaching its end, with domestic and overseas "de - stocking" showing signs of bottoming out [29]. - In 2026, the commodity market is expected to stabilize at the bottom and gradually shift to a "slow - bull" market. The Minsky Clock is likely to transition from "weak recovery" to "early re - inflation," benefiting stocks and commodities [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Outlook - The global liquidity environment in 2026 will maintain a loose tone, and China's macro - policies will continue to be positive, with fiscal support for key areas and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. 3.2 Capacity Cycle - The industrial capacity utilization rate bottomed out in Q2 2025, and the PPI has been narrowing its year - on - year decline since June 2025. In 2026, it may form the initial stage of a positive cycle [23]. 3.3 Inventory Cycle - The year - on - year growth rate of finished - product inventory has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating the end of the current inventory cycle. The US wholesalers' inventory has been decreasing since Q2, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has become less sensitive [29]. 3.4 Commodity Market Outlook - In 2026, the commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance and stabilization, and structural differentiation." It may show wide - range fluctuations in the first half and a mild recovery in the second half if policies are effective [30]. 3.5 Sector and Variety Allocation Outlook 3.5.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to continue their bull market but with increased volatility. The gold - silver ratio may decline periodically [35]. 3.5.2 From AI to New and Old Energy Transition - AI's computing power demand drives the entire new - energy industry chain, causing high resonance between the stock market and commodities. New - energy materials such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon may enter a new demand cycle, and there are investment opportunities in going long on copper and short on oil [42][57]. 3.5.3 Real Estate and Related Sectors - The real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle, putting pressure on the prices of black and building - material sectors. The divergence between copper and rebar reflects the economic transformation [62]. 3.5.4 Black and Energy - Chemical Sectors - In the black sector, shorting iron ore may be cost - effective. In the energy - chemical sector, most chemicals except crude oil face supply pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [68]. 3.5.5 Agricultural Products - Livestock Sector - If the "anti - involution" policy promotes the reduction of livestock production capacity in the first half, pork and eggs may be worth long - allocation in the second half, while the fundamentals of beans may weaken [74]. 3.6 Allocation Strategy - Industrial product hedging can focus on the theme of "AI and computing power driving the acceleration of new - and old - energy transformation." Agricultural products will continue to show differentiation, with grains and oils relatively resistant to decline and livestock products potentially having a low - then - high trend [80][81]. - New - energy varieties (e.g., lithium carbonate) have demand support and profit - repair potential. Non - ferrous metals (e.g., copper) have valuation - increasing potential. Energy - chemical products are under pressure, and black products are affected by real - estate demand [82].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry, particularly the dividend insurance sector, is experiencing a transformation that began in late 2024 and gained momentum throughout 2025, with a focus on building confidence in "dividend expectations" as the new year begins in 2026 [1][23]. Industry Marketing Concepts - Following the "9·24" market rally in 2024, a policy-driven bull market in A-shares continued into 2025, culminating in the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points for the third time, boosting confidence in the capital market's future [2][24]. - Despite the positive market sentiment, the general public remains concerned about economic downturns and the difficulty of making money, leading to a preference for fixed-income insurance products over floating-return products like dividend insurance [2][24]. - Companies and marketers are attempting to apply the "Merrill Clock" theory to justify increasing equity asset allocations during the economic recovery phase, but it is essential to consider the current development stage of the country and the financial industry's requirements [2][24]. National Development Direction - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the development of new productive forces and the construction of a modern industrial system, with a focus on strategic emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, and biotechnology [3][25]. - The financial sector's role is to support national strategies and new productive forces, facilitating value conversion across time and space [3][25]. Investment Strength of Insurance Companies - Dividend insurance products have lower guaranteed interest rates compared to traditional life insurance, allowing insurance companies to release more funds for long-term investments, which tests their active investment capabilities [5][27]. - The evaluation of an insurance company's investment ability is complicated by the transition to new accounting standards, making direct comparisons between listed and non-listed companies challenging [6][27]. - Key investment return metrics include net investment yield, total investment yield, and comprehensive investment yield, which reflect the company's overall investment capabilities [7][28]. Dividend Insurance Product Insights - Dividend insurance features several interest rates: guaranteed rate, illustrated rate, and client theoretical yield, with the latter two often leading to misunderstandings among clients [10][32]. - The actual dividend payout rate, which is the ratio of actual dividends distributed to illustrated dividends, is a critical metric for assessing the performance of dividend insurance products [13][34]. Comparison of Hong Kong and Mainland Dividend Insurance - Hong Kong dividend insurance has lower guaranteed interest rates but higher illustrated rates due to more flexible investment channels, raising concerns about the sustainability of high illustrated returns [14][35]. - Regulatory measures in Hong Kong aim to prevent overly aggressive investment return assumptions, promoting healthy competition and sustainable development in the insurance industry [14][35]. Client Adaptability and Suitability - The transition to dividend insurance has faced resistance from some marketers and clients who struggle to accept the concept of "floating returns," indicating a need for better education and understanding of the product [17][37]. - Certain client demographics, such as those over 65 or those with a pessimistic view of national development, may not be suitable for dividend insurance, suggesting a need for tailored product recommendations [18][38]. Conclusion - As 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the insurance industry is positioned to respond to national economic strategies, with dividend insurance emerging as a valuable asset allocation choice for families in the coming decade [20][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the scale of macro - hedge strategies is expected to increase further as their allocation value is increasingly recognized in the market. Risk - parity strategies will play a stronger role as the base position in the portfolio, and the returns of risk - parity managers will experience a certain degree of mean reversion. [36][37] - The performance of subjective CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than that in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will benefit subjective CTA managers. [58] Summary by Directory 01 Macro - Hedge Strategy Research and Outlook Manager Classification and Characteristics - Macro - hedge managers are classified into three types: risk - parity, asset - rotation, and multi - asset multi - strategy. This report focuses on the first two types. Risk - parity managers use the risk - parity model as the basis and enhance it, with relatively consistent performance; asset - rotation managers are based on asset - rotation frameworks like the Merrill Lynch Clock, emphasizing asset timing allocation and having less consistent performance. [6] Domestic Manager Performance in 2025 - As of November 28, 2025, the net value of the "risk - parity" macro - hedge index was 1.172, and that of the "asset - rotation" index was 1.101. In the 46 weeks from January 3 to November 28, 2025, risk - parity managers had positive weekly returns in 30 weeks and negative returns in 16 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival on April 11. Asset - rotation managers had positive weekly returns in 25 weeks and negative returns in 20 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring in the week of November 21. In the context of global supply - chain reshaping, risk - parity managers outperformed asset - rotation managers in 2025. [10] Asset Correlation Analysis - In 2025, the negative correlation between treasury bonds and equity indices weakened compared to the end of last year. The China Securities Commodity Index was positively correlated with stock indices and negatively correlated with treasury bonds and gold. Gold, as a safe - haven asset, had a stronger correlation with treasury bonds. There were significant differences in the performance correlations of risk - parity and asset - rotation managers with equity, treasury bonds, and gold. [13] - In terms of equity assets, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the CSI 300 was 0.230, and that with the CSI 1000 was 0.186. The correlations of the asset - rotation strategy with the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 were 0.628 and 0.641 respectively. The asset - rotation strategy's returns were more dependent on stocks, and the large drawdown in the week of November 21 was related to the stock decline. [19] - After a five - fold leverage treatment of 10 - year treasury bonds, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and 10 - year treasury bond futures was 0.221, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was - 0.068. Many managers believed that the treasury bond market was in a bear market, so asset - rotation managers mostly reduced or shorted treasury bonds, while risk - parity managers still held bond positions. [23] - In 2025, gold was one of the strongest - performing assets, with a cumulative net value of the Gold ETF of 1.588 from January 3 to November 28. The correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the Gold ETF was 0.453, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was 0.110. Gold had a greater impact on risk - parity strategies. [26] Overseas Manager Performance in 2025 - As of October 2025, the net value of the "unidentified" macro - hedge index was 1.088, the "subjective" macro - hedge index was 1.129, and the "quantitative" macro - hedge index was 1.159. Quantitative macro - hedge strategies performed the best, followed by subjective strategies, similar to the domestic situation. The maximum drawdowns of the unidentified and quantitative macro - hedge strategies occurred in April, indicating that domestic risk - parity managers may use similar underlying models to overseas ones. [29] - The unidentified macro - hedge strategy index had a more balanced correlation with various asset classes, with a near - zero correlation with New York gold. The subjective macro - hedge index had a high correlation of 0.792 with the S&P 500 and a negative correlation with New York gold, indicating that its returns were more dependent on the US stock market. The quantitative macro - hedge strategy also had a high correlation of 0.627 with the S&P 500 and a relatively high correlation of 0.300 with the S&P GSCI, but a negative correlation with US treasury bonds and gold. [33] Outlook for 2026 - The scale of macro - hedge strategies will increase as their allocation value is recognized. Some investors may replace part of their stock - neutral strategy allocation with low - volatility macro - hedge strategies. The role of risk - parity strategies as the base position in the portfolio will be enhanced, and their return attribution is relatively clear. [36] - The returns of risk - parity managers will experience mean reversion in 2026. Since the probability of bonds and gold replicating their price increases since 2024 is significantly reduced, the returns of these managers will decline. Historically, the long - term return of the basic risk - parity model is around 6 - 8%. [37] 02 Discretionary CTA Strategy Research and Outlook Performance in 2025 - The net value performance of managers in the observation pool in 2025 was weaker than in the same period of 2024. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade friction reduced the trading certainty of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial supply - demand research, weakening their position - holding confidence and return - generating ability. After June, although market sentiment improved, the lack of improvement in the industrial sector led to significant drawdowns for many managers, lowering the annual return. [40] Sector - Specific Performance - Black - sector managers showed some resilience in returns in 2025. In the first half of the year, the collapse of coal costs led to a downward trend in the black - sector prices, with good persistence and low volatility. The concerns about external demand due to Sino - US trade friction coincided with the seasonal decline in coal prices, providing trading opportunities with industrial and macro resonance. In the second half of the year, differences in the implementation of anti - involution policies led to a negative view among industrial - based managers, resulting in significant drawdowns. [45] - Agricultural - product managers were greatly affected by trade frictions between China and the US, Canada, etc. The unpredictable changes in agricultural - product imports and price fluctuations made it difficult for them to generate returns. [45] Industry Changes - Leading managers are iterating towards multi - asset and multi - strategy models. The limited capital capacity of single - asset futures trading, the need to understand the trading behavior of other market participants, and the benefits of multi - asset diversification are the main reasons. [50] - Start - up private - equity funds have shown strong drawdown - control ability since their establishment. Compared with the past, current start - up discretionary CTA private - equity funds have a clearer understanding of investors' risk preferences and a more explicit performance - oriented approach, enabling them to enter institutional investors' asset - allocation pools more quickly. [52] - In a diversified market structure, single - industry logic is insufficient for trading. Managers need to have comprehensive capabilities in macro - judgment, trading, and risk - control. Research determines the winning rate, trading and risk - control determine the profit - loss ratio, and an excellent trader may not be an excellent asset - management manager. [55] Outlook for 2026 - The performance of discretionary CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties will make commodity supply - demand the dominant factor in trading, and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will be beneficial for managers to generate returns. The increase in the scale of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial research will also contribute to the strength of industrial logic in the market. [58]