Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance of the Zhongtai Tianze Stable 6-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF), which has achieved a net value growth rate of 7.40% since its establishment on March 21, 2023, outperforming its benchmark by 3.21% [2] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The fund manager, Tang Jun, emphasizes the importance of asset allocation over merely selecting outstanding fund managers, focusing on forming allocation views first and then selecting the best funds to implement those views [2] - Tang Jun utilizes a macro analysis framework for risk budgeting, similar to Bridgewater's risk parity model, but with a personalized approach that allows for differentiated risk allocation based on his views [3][5] - The strategic asset allocation is based on a "monetary-credit" analysis framework, which influences long-term configuration, while tactical asset allocation focuses on short-term opportunities based on market sentiment and funding conditions [5][9] Group 2: Return Streams and Risk Assessment - The concept of "return streams" is highlighted, where having 15-20 independent return streams can significantly reduce risk without compromising expected returns [6] - The manager assesses the correlation of asset classes with existing portfolios for risk evaluation, rather than relying solely on the inherent risk of asset classes [6] - The selection of funds involves a rigorous style decomposition process to evaluate the fund's alpha performance after removing style beta influences [7] Group 3: Gold and Market Outlook - Gold is maintained as a strategic core holding due to its recognition as a global currency amidst concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [8] - The article outlines potential strategies based on macroeconomic drivers, such as domestic credit expansion and overseas dollar liquidity, which will influence future asset allocation decisions [9] - The performance of US tech stocks, particularly in relation to AI technology trends, is identified as a key factor for future market movements [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unique investment approach of Tang Jun, a FOF fund manager at Zhongtai Asset Management, emphasizing his focus on asset allocation and the concept of "return streams" to achieve stable returns [2][10]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Tang Jun's investment strategy is characterized by a broad vision and a rich variety of return streams, resembling Bridgewater's "All Weather Strategy" [2]. - The core of asset allocation is to identify different "return streams," which represent independent asset returns, ensuring true diversification of underlying asset returns [10][12]. - Tang Jun believes that true diversification is not merely about holding more funds but capturing more independent return-driving logic [10]. Group 2: Methodology and Research - Tang Jun undertook a significant project to redefine industry classifications for over 1,600 listed companies, creating a more precise framework for quantitative stock selection [5][6]. - His classification resulted in 68 sub-industries, allowing for better comparability and understanding of different sectors [6]. - The experience of market constraints led Tang Jun to realize the limitations of quantitative strategies, prompting him to incorporate macroeconomic perspectives into his investment methodology [7][19]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - Tang Jun's asset allocation involves a three-tiered approach: macro-level judgments, mid-level analysis of industry or thematic expectations, and micro-level product selection [15][17]. - He emphasizes the importance of understanding the correlation between asset classes when making allocation decisions, rather than relying solely on the inherent risk of each asset class [12][20]. - The current macro environment influences Tang Jun's strategic asset allocation, focusing on credit expansion and monetary conditions to guide investment decisions [19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Tang Jun expresses a desire for more diverse fund products, particularly in bond ETFs, Smart Beta funds, and commodity funds, to enhance his investment choices [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy, highlighting the performance of various asset classes, particularly gold and equities, in the current market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - COMEX gold ranked second in 2024 with a return of 27.65%, closely trailing the Nasdaq index [2]. - The asset allocation strategy of fund manager Tang Jun has evolved, with gold being a significant holding, peaking at nearly 18% mid-2024, but later decreasing to 13.71% by the end of Q4 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Tang Jun's investment approach is characterized by a "top-down" strategy that emphasizes low correlation among underlying assets, distinguishing it from traditional FOF managers [8][10]. - He focuses on the concept of "return streams," which involves optimizing risk and enhancing portfolio performance by reducing correlation among assets [10][65]. Group 3: Macro and Micro Analysis - The macroeconomic factors influencing asset allocation include monetary policy and credit expansion, which have become more significant than traditional economic cycles [44][46]. - Tang Jun's framework for asset allocation is structured into three levels: macroeconomic drivers, expectation differences, and low-correlation return streams [106]. Group 4: Tactical Adjustments - Tactical adjustments in asset allocation are made based on market conditions, with a focus on maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management [51][88]. - The strategy includes a dynamic adjustment of asset weights based on macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment, such as the performance of small-cap stocks and the behavior of retail investors [37][39]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic asset allocation will depend on credit expansion, while international considerations will focus on U.S. fiscal policies and their impact on inflation and risk assets [101][103].