Core Viewpoint - Asset allocation is a complex and multi-dimensional task, often referred to as "physical labor" due to the extensive research required to achieve effective configurations [1][2][27]. Group 1: Passive vs. Active Allocation - Passive allocation, which relies on diversification to reduce volatility, faces challenges in practice, particularly for domestic investors due to limited asset classes and the poor performance of key assets like A-shares [5][9][27]. - Active allocation aims to enhance returns beyond passive strategies by making informed predictions about expected returns, addressing the shortcomings of passive allocation [2][27]. Group 2: Issues with Passive Allocation - Determining expected returns using historical data can lead to "chasing performance," where investors favor assets that have recently performed well, skewing allocation models [5][9]. - The correlation between assets is not stable; for instance, the historical negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds has weakened since the 2008 financial crisis, impacting the effectiveness of diversification [6][9]. - The performance of passive allocation is heavily dependent on the underlying assets' returns and their correlations, which can be problematic in markets with limited asset classes [9][27]. Group 3: The Complexity of Active Allocation - Active allocation involves timing decisions, which many investors find challenging, leading to skepticism about its feasibility [17][19]. - While achieving a high accuracy rate in timing is difficult, even a modest success rate can significantly enhance investment returns when combined with sound risk management [18][19]. - The macroeconomic drivers influencing asset performance can change, necessitating continuous adjustments to research frameworks and strategies [21][27]. Group 4: Multi-Dimensional Decision Making - Effective asset allocation requires multiple low-correlation return streams to improve the probability of successful outcomes, as relying on a single asset is often insufficient [22][23]. - A structured decision-making framework that incorporates both strategic and tactical allocations can enhance the robustness of investment strategies [23][24]. - Strict risk budgeting is essential to ensure that asset allocations align with the overall risk tolerance of the portfolio, preventing forced liquidations during market fluctuations [24][25].

Core Insights - The bond market, which has experienced a strong performance for several years, has entered a phase of wide fluctuations in 2023, particularly since the third quarter [1] - Overall market risk appetite has increased, leading to a reassessment of the value of major asset classes, with bond assets appearing weaker [1] - The introduction of new regulations on public fund fees has also impacted institutional participation in the bond market [1] - As a result, the popularity of actively managed bond funds has significantly decreased, while bond ETFs have emerged as a new source of capital in the bond market [1] - This divergence in market dynamics indicates a changing investment ecosystem for bonds, with active management facing greater challenges and passive allocation gaining momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant slowdown, transitioning into a phase of wide fluctuations, with active bond funds losing market heat while bond ETFs are gaining traction as a new source of capital [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Fund Market Dynamics - Active bond funds are facing challenges due to three main reasons: lack of attractive yields, net value volatility, and limited contribution to channel income [2][3]. - There has been a notable increase in large redemptions from bond funds, with at least 26 funds announcing adjustments to net value precision due to significant withdrawals in just two weeks [2]. - The issuance of new bond funds has also cooled, with only three new funds established in October, totaling 261 million yuan, which represents just 1.12% of all new fund issuance during the same period [2]. Group 2: Bond ETF Performance - Despite the struggles of bond funds, bond ETFs have attracted substantial capital, with 24 new science and technology bond ETFs launched since July, accumulating a total scale of 244.94 billion yuan, an increase of 17.52 billion yuan from their initial scale [4][5]. - Institutional investors are the primary subscribers of these bond ETFs, with major banks and securities firms holding significant proportions of the funds [4][5]. - The expansion of bond ETFs is expected to have a growing impact on the bond market, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment where active management faces increased competition from lower-fee ETFs [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Bond Market - Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the bond market's future, citing a more favorable supply-demand structure compared to previous years, with limited supply pressure anticipated in the fourth quarter [7]. - The bond market is expected to experience a phase of stabilization, with potential trading opportunities arising from fluctuations within a defined range [7]. - There is ongoing attention to the new public fund fee regulations, with many investors believing that the bond market has not fully priced in the impact of these changes [7].