随着人工智能的兴起，企业领导者或许会思考：是不是该把数学计算工作外包给机器，好让管理者们腾 出精力去做更多管理方面的事务呢？ 答案是：绝对不行。 数学是商业的核心语言。对于企业领导者而言，流利掌握这门语言比以往任何时候都更为重要。事实 上，从首席执行官到仓库经理，几乎所有职能岗位和层级的人员都概莫能外。套用查理·芒格的话来 说：不懂数字就做商业决策，无异于绑着一条腿去战斗，结局肯定好不了。 的确，人工智能在数学领域有着令人瞩目的能力。大型语言模型（LLMs）在数学竞赛中取得了优异成 绩，而人类在这方面似乎正朝着相反的方向发展。乍一看，这似乎是一种严重的不对等，对人类来说堪 称 "游戏结束"。但事情并非如此简单。 人工智能尤其擅长为精确表述的问题找到确切答案，桑乔伊·马哈詹将这种能力称为 "学术性" 数学。然 而，商业数学却有所不同。它需要针对现实生活中模糊、多变且棘手的问题，提供实用、近似且灵活的 解决方案。这类问题暴露了人工智能的弱点，同时也彰显了人类推理、创造力和常识的优势。 你无需能够创作出莎士比亚式的诗篇，也能讲一口流利的日常英语。同样，你不必能够精确求解微分方 程，也可以掌握实用的商业数学。但你绝对 ...

神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：在概率思维模式下，玩好概率游戏，我们就能大大提升成功的可能性。本文来自编译，希望对您有所启发。 假设你设定了一个目标：在90天后跑完一场马拉松。你聘请的教练坦言时间并不充裕，但只要严格遵循训练计划、营养方案和睡眠安排，比赛当天你就能做 好准备。她警告说，若在任何一个环节偷懒，三个月内你将无法完成马拉松赛程。 假设你对自身执行力充满信心：坚持训练计划的概率70%，遵守营养方案的概率70%，遵循睡眠安排的概率同样是70%。那么同时达成三项并以最佳状态参 赛的概率是多少？ 答案令人惊讶：仅34.3%。成功需要三个先决条件，单独看每个条件实现概率似乎很高，但必须三者同时达成。当我们将每个步骤的成功概率相乘时，前景 就不再那么乐观了。 这还只是个相对简单的目标。只需三件事顺利即可达成。现在想象更复杂的挑战，比如创办成功企业或取得梦寐以求的升职加薪。那么，十家企业中九家失 败的现象，以及多数人新年决心屡屡落空的常态，便不再令人惊讶。我们并非运气不佳，而是遭遇了宏大目标与低概率交织的必然失败。但这不是放弃的理 由， ...

潜在亏损与盈利的概率及其对应金额的精确加权之上。这一算法虽然看起来单线条甚至有些简单，但却不失睿智，亦有定量分析的支撑。在商 业决策和投资领域，这种大概率思维必不可少，绝不可以忽略概率分布。 这本书有意思的一点还在于它并不是用深奥的数学公式来论证自己的观点，而是运用某种"降维打击"，结合人们日常的一些思维惯势娓娓道 来，例如"糟糕的结果并不意味着拙劣的决定"，这很容易理解，就是说人们有时习惯于"事后诸葛亮"，用结果的好坏来倒推决策优劣，然而， 作者从概率学的严谨角度指出，这种归因方式存在严重的逻辑缺陷。因为，一个基于正确分析和大概率思维作出的好决策，仍可能会产生差结 果，同理，一个逻辑混乱的甚至是拍脑袋的坏决策，也可能因为偶然的好运气而得到不错的结果。书中也举了个简单的例子，天气预报说明天 有70%概率会下雨，如果第二天没下雨，你不能就此而说天气预报毫无用处。这毕竟是一个关乎概率的事件。所以，包括商业决策在内的各类 决策者，需要坚持大概率思维、模型和理性决策，识别一些随机性干扰带来的不同结果，不要因结果来反证决策的好坏。否则，对错误经验的 过度总结和痴迷会令你错过正确路径。 文/夏宁 "用亏损的概率乘可能亏损 ...

Core Viewpoint - The podcast episode titled "When the Big Cycle Fails, Where is the New Macro Coordinate?" hosted by fund manager Tang Jun from Zhongtai Asset Management has gained significant attention, with over 60,000 listeners in a week, indicating a strong interest among investors in learning about macroeconomic frameworks and investment strategies [2][5]. Group 1: Framework Construction - The background and reasons for the effectiveness and ineffectiveness of the Merrill Clock are discussed [5]. - The "Credit-Money" framework is introduced, explaining how to describe the current macroeconomic state based on this framework [5]. - The current macroeconomic state leads to specific asset allocation conclusions [5]. Group 2: Allocation and Portfolio Construction - The distinction between active and passive allocation is made, highlighting the problems that active allocation can solve [9]. - Preparations required for engaging in active allocation are outlined [9]. - The role of FOF (Fund of Funds) in addressing specific issues is examined [9]. - The execution of strategic and tactical layers in investment is discussed [9]. Group 3: Reflections on Human Nature - The importance of understanding human behavior in the context of investment allocation is emphasized, inviting listeners to engage in a professional and rigorous intellectual exchange [6]. Group 4: Risk and Return Concepts - The concept of risk budgeting and how to construct a portfolio within a given risk budget is explained [9]. - The notion of return streams and which assets can represent different return streams is analyzed, drawing lessons from Bridgewater's practices [9]. - The significance of having a framework in investment decision-making is highlighted [9]. - The meaning of logic in investment and the application of probabilistic thinking in market timing are discussed [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of adopting a probabilistic mindset in investing, suggesting that every investment should be viewed as an opportunity for trial and error, rather than a guaranteed success [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The financial market is currently experiencing a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 276.1 billion yuan, while 287 billion yuan of reverse repos are maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan [3]. - The interbank funding rates have shown slight declines, with DR001 around 1.41% and DR007 at approximately 1.48% [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - Concerns have been raised regarding public fund sales expenses, which have impacted market sentiment, leading to cautious trading in the bond market. The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.7925% and rose to around 1.7975% [5]. - The bond market saw fluctuations, with the yield on 10-year government bonds reaching a low of 1.793% before rebounding to approximately 1.798% in the afternoon session [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted rates for various repurchase agreements indicate a slight increase, with R001 at 1.46% and R007 at 1.52%, reflecting a minor upward trend in interest rates [4]. - The yield on long-term government bonds has also shown an upward trajectory, with the 10-year bond yield at 1.7980%, marking an increase of 9.93 basis points [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of perspective in investment, highlighting that market truths can vary based on individual viewpoints, similar to the philosophical debate illustrated by Su Shi's poem about Mount Lu [2][3][4]. Group 1: Value vs. Trend - The article presents a debate between value investors and trend traders, where value investors argue that current stock valuations are historically high and unsustainable, while trend traders believe in following market momentum as the key to success [5][6]. - Both perspectives are valid within their contexts, but neither is the sole measure of market performance, indicating that market evaluation is complex and multifaceted [6]. Group 2: Long-term vs. Short-term Perspective - Investors are cautioned to avoid being trapped in short-term market fluctuations, which can lead to emotional decision-making. A long-term perspective allows for a more stable view of market trends and potential growth [7]. - Recognizing the long-term upward potential can help investors maintain composure amidst market volatility [7]. Group 3: Establishing Investment Perspective - Investors are encouraged to adopt a multi-faceted approach, integrating various perspectives such as value and trend, macro and micro factors, to create a comprehensive decision-making framework [8]. - Understanding the essence of profitability in the market is crucial for determining whether to align with or oppose market trends [8]. - Embracing probabilistic thinking rather than seeking absolute truths is essential for mature investment strategies, focusing on the likelihood of success rather than guaranteed outcomes [8][9]. Group 4: Cognitive Development in Investing - The article posits that investing is fundamentally a cognitive journey, requiring both critical observation and humility in recognizing one's knowledge limits [9]. - By learning to navigate the complexities of the market with a flexible mindset, investors can develop their unique investment strategies [9].

- The report primarily focuses on the investment philosophy and performance of the Guotou Ruiyin New Silk Road Fund, emphasizing its adherence to "independent thinking, probabilistic reasoning, contrarian courage, and forward-looking vision" to identify undervalued high-quality stocks and achieve stable long-term excess returns[3][7][36] - The fund's investment framework includes diversified asset allocation, with a long-term equity allocation exceeding 93%, and a relatively moderate stock concentration, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 58.25% of total stock assets as of Q2 2025[8][40][43] - The fund demonstrates a stable investment style, with its performance primarily driven by sector and stock selection. From Q1 2024 to Q2 2025, it exhibited consistent positive exposure to small-cap, high-ROE, and high-beta factors, while showing negative exposure to micro-cap stocks[70][73][74] - The fund's turnover rate remains significantly lower than the median of its peers, indicating a preference for medium- to long-term holding strategies. As of H1 2025, the turnover rate was approximately 68.94%, well below the peer median of 189.44%[60][62][64] - The fund achieved an annualized return of 9.08% from April 13, 2015, to August 29, 2025, with an annualized excess return of 7.76% relative to its benchmark. It also outperformed major indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 800 during the same period[24][26][28] - Weekly excess return analysis from August 29, 2023, to August 29, 2025, shows an overall win rate of approximately 53.92%, with a higher win rate of 69.23% during market uptrends and 38.00% during downtrends[75][78][80]

Core Viewpoint - Eliezer Yudkowsky argues that there is a 99.5% chance that artificial intelligence could lead to human extinction, emphasizing the urgent need to halt the development of superintelligent AI to safeguard humanity's future [1][2][8]. Group 1: Yudkowsky's Background and Influence - Yudkowsky is a prominent figure in Silicon Valley, known for co-founding OpenAI and Google DeepMind, and has a polarizing reputation [5][10]. - He dropped out of school in the eighth grade and self-educated in computer science, becoming deeply interested in the concept of the "singularity," where AI surpasses human intelligence [12][13]. - His extreme views on AI risks have garnered attention from major tech leaders, including Musk and Altman, who have cited his ideas publicly [19][20]. Group 2: AI Safety Concerns - Yudkowsky identifies three main reasons why creating friendly AI is challenging: intelligence does not equate to benevolence, powerful goal-oriented AI may adopt harmful methods, and rapid advancements in AI capabilities could lead to uncontrollable superintelligence [14][15][16]. - He has established the MIRI research institute to study advanced AI risks and has been one of the earliest voices warning about AI dangers in Silicon Valley [18][19]. Group 3: Predictions and Warnings - Yudkowsky believes that many tech companies, including OpenAI, are not fully aware of the internal workings of their AI models, which could lead to a loss of human control over these systems [30][31]. - He asserts that the current stage of AI development warrants immediate alarm, suggesting that all companies pursuing superintelligent AI should be shut down, including OpenAI and Anthropic [32]. - Over time, he has shifted from predicting when superintelligent AI will emerge to emphasizing the inevitability of its consequences, likening it to predicting when an ice cube will melt in hot water [33][34][35].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes that everything is about probability, and the focus should be on changing probabilities rather than controlling outcomes [2][3] - It is suggested that individuals should recognize that they can only control a small portion of the factors affecting outcomes, and thus should adopt a probabilistic mindset [2][3] - The article highlights the importance of taking action to increase the likelihood of positive outcomes, rather than waiting for opportunities to come [4][5] Group 2 - The text discusses the "paradox of happiness," where an excessive focus on results can lead to disappointment and decreased happiness [6][7] - It encourages individuals to focus on the process and the experiences gained from actions rather than fixating on the end results [7] - The article suggests that taking action should be the default option, especially when faced with indecision or overthinking [10][11][12] Group 3 - It is noted that perfectionism can hinder progress, and individuals should aim to do important tasks well rather than striving for perfection in everything [13][14] - The text emphasizes the need to identify the most important tasks and prioritize them, allowing for a more balanced approach to work and life [13][14] - The article encourages a mindset shift to view challenges as opportunities for growth rather than insurmountable obstacles [16][19] Group 4 - The article posits that pursuing joy and interest can be more valuable than solely focusing on utility, suggesting that happiness is a significant outcome [20][21] - It encourages individuals to allocate time to explore new interests and activities that bring joy, without worrying about the return on investment [20][21] - The overall message is that life should be about enjoying the journey rather than just reaching the destination [21]

Group 1 - The passive investment trend in the public fund market is gaining momentum, with the launch of the Everbright Prudential CSI A500 Index Fund, managed by Wang Weilin [1] - Wang Weilin believes that the A-share market is currently undervalued compared to global equity markets, and anticipates a significant turning point in corporate performance in the second half of the year [1] - The CSI A500 Index is expected to have stronger upward momentum in the latter half of the year as a benchmark index for quality core assets [1] Group 2 - Wang Weilin has a strong background in quantitative investment, having developed a comprehensive quantitative investment management system over nearly a decade [2] - His system supports the management of various products and has shown strong performance, with the Everbright Jin Hong fund ranking among the top in its category over the past one and two years [2] - Wang emphasizes the importance of understanding the strengths and weaknesses of his models, which enhances the stability and adaptability of his investment strategies [2] Group 3 - Wang Weilin advocates for a "quantitative + active" investment structure, where quantitative models provide stable excess returns under normal conditions, while active management is employed during market volatility [3] - He believes in maintaining a respectful attitude towards the market and establishing an investment system that aligns with one's personality [3] Group 4 - Wang Weilin employs both probabilistic and grid thinking in his investment approach, utilizing statistical analysis to identify investment patterns while also integrating multi-disciplinary knowledge [4][6] - He believes that combining quantitative investment with grid thinking enhances decision-making accuracy [5] Group 5 - The CSI A500 Index, launched last year, is gaining attention as a "Chinese version of the S&P 500," with a unique compilation method that incorporates ESG ratings [7] - The index is expected to attract global investors as it excludes companies with low ESG ratings, aligning with the growing trend of ESG investment [7] - The inclusion of stocks eligible for the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect enhances the index's liquidity and market appeal [7] Group 6 - The CSI A500 Index features a balanced industry distribution, covering all secondary and 91 tertiary industries, with a focus on high-end manufacturing and technology growth sectors [8]