2月17日，步入2026年，全球贵金属市场正处于多重力量交织的博弈期。金丰来表示，尽管2025年主权 需求的持续注入为金价提供了坚实底部，但美国就业市场的信号矛盾以及宏观政策的不透明性，正使得 新一年的价格预测变得愈发复杂。 从主权储备视角来看，分析认为全球央行的资产配置重心依然稳固。金丰来表示，2025年全球央行累计 净购金量达到328吨，其中波兰以102吨的增持量领跑全球。即便总额较2024年的345吨小幅下滑，但哈 萨克斯坦、巴西等国的战略补仓依然凸显了黄金作为核心储备资产的地位。与之相对的是，去年美国就 业数据虽然在1月录得13万的超预期增长，但2025全年的向下修正值却超过了100万。金丰来认为，这种 表面繁荣与深层隐忧并存的局面，使得2年期国债收益率在3.5%附近震荡，直接削弱了美联储在近期采 取激进利率行动的可能性。 在白银市场方面，金丰来表示，供需矛盾正因价格高企而发生结构性转移。由于白银现货溢价一度走 高，市场正经历从"投机驱动"向"实物变现"的转变。相关数据显示，1965年以前的银币资产价值在过去 一年中几乎翻了三倍，这种暴利空间彻底激活了北美的二次供应市场。大量长期处于沉淀状态的家传珠 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in gold prices, which rose by 65% in 2025, reaching a historical high of $4549.71 per ounce, marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [1][3] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will rise to $4800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and continued purchases by central banks and funds [3] - Analysts from Bank of America also view gold as a crucial hedge in investment portfolios for 2026, estimating an average price of $4538 per ounce for the year [3] Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar is evident, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to just above 40%, the lowest level in decades, while the dollar index fell by 9.4% in 2025, marking its worst performance in eight years [1][3] - The increasing role of gold in sovereign reserves is a key driver of its price surge, as central banks actively accumulate gold to hedge against dollar risks, with significant increases in gold holdings reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [4] - The unusual rise in prices of major metals like gold, silver, and copper signals the underlying weakness of the dollar, suggesting a potential for further depreciation of the dollar as alternative currencies may begin to appreciate [3][4]