在美股近期快速反弹之后，华尔街大行最新警告，市场再次回撤风险大。 据追风交易台消息，高盛在5月15日发布的研报中称，尽管关税谈判释放积极信号，市场信心有所恢复，但这并不意味着风险已经消除。 报告指出，特朗普政府的有效关税水平仍然远高于4月2日宣布所谓"对等关税"前的水平，且美股市场仍然面临高估值、市场集中度和增长放缓等风险。 在4月初，美股市场剧烈动荡，标普500指数下跌近20%，纳斯达克下跌23%。随着美英宣布贸易协议，再加上中美贸易谈判远超预期，市场信心恢复，美 股也反弹走高。 高盛认为，这表明4月初的熊市是事件（特朗普关税）驱动型的，主要是由外部冲击引发。 当下风险是否消失？ 报告指出，尽管关税消息令人欣慰，但是高关税仍然存在，增长将会放缓。在美国，关税影响是通胀性的，且仍存在高度不确定性。 而且高盛认为，美联储可能不太愿意降息，现在他们预计美联储开始三次降息的时间将晚于之前预期(12月而非7月)。因此高盛在报告中指出： 尽管在暴跌之后，股市随后调整异常迅速，符合"事件驱动型"熊市特征，但这类熊市的典型走势在初始下跌后通常在一段时间内保持平稳。如 果遵循这种典型模式，近期上行空间可能有限，市场可能面临再 ...

Group 1 - Recent hedge fund liquidations have led to an unusual decline in both stocks and gold, as institutions may need to sell off overvalued gold to meet margin calls for stock positions [1] - The U.S. has implemented a combination of tariffs, resulting in an overall tariff rate of 104% on Chinese goods, which has heightened recession fears and caused significant volatility in global stock markets [2][4] - Goldman Sachs indicates that the current market is in an "event-driven" bear market, with risks of evolving into a "cyclical" bear market, and suggests that further valuation adjustments are necessary before a new bull market can begin [4] Group 2 - The recent volatility in the market has prompted institutional investors to adopt a strategy of reducing positions and raising cash for potential future buying opportunities [5] - Gold prices have experienced a significant pullback, dropping over 5% to below $3,000 per ounce, as hedge fund liquidations have led to the selling of traditionally safe assets [6][7] - UBS forecasts that gold prices could reach $3,200 per ounce, and potentially $3,500 if trade-related or geopolitical risks escalate, highlighting a strong long-term outlook for gold [7][8] Group 3 - The foreign exchange market has been volatile, with most emerging market currencies depreciating against the dollar, and the offshore RMB briefly surpassing the 7.4 mark against the dollar [9] - Barclays predicts that if the RMB's effective exchange rate depreciates by about 9%, it could offset the impact of new tariffs on exports, while the central bank will manage the pace of depreciation [10]