整体二手房市场成交规模仍将延续波动走势 ◎ 文/俞倩倩 CRIC数据显示，2025年11月30个重点城市二手房成交环比上升14%，累计同比增3%。究竟当前二手房业主挂牌积极性如何？热点城市中新增挂牌房 源又存在哪些结构性分化特征呢？ 11月沪深杭新增二手挂牌量同环比齐跌 仅北京一城环比增9% 01 为了更好的分析二手房业主心态变化，我们主力聚焦了北京、上海、深圳、杭州等核心一二线城市，从CRIC监测的四城新增挂牌套数来看，11月四 城新增挂牌总量与上月基本持平，环比微增1%，同比下降7%。沪深杭三城均呈现出同环比齐跌，深圳同比跌幅达11%。仅北京一城环比持增9%。 | 城市 | 11月 | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 16961 | તેમ | -6% | | 上繪 | 13838 | -5% | -5% | | 深圳 | 5312 | -4% | -7% | | 杭州 | 6300 | -2% | -11% | 02 （3）上海600万-800万元中高改房源新增挂牌量占比出现了阶段性回升，环比增长1.12pcts。 | 城市 | 分类 | 100万元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall second-hand housing market transaction scale is expected to continue its fluctuating trend, with a gradual decline in transactions observed in October 2025 [2][12]. Market Transaction Trends - In October 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 30 key cities decreased by 11% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year growth narrowing to 6% [2]. - The new listing volume in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed a consistent decline, with Shenzhen experiencing a year-on-year drop of 35% [4][12]. Listing Volume Analysis - The total new listings in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou decreased by 9% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year in October [4]. - Specific data for October 2025 shows: - Beijing: 15,602 listings (-15% MoM, -20% YoY) - Shanghai: 14,612 listings (-4% MoM, -10% YoY) - Shenzhen: 5,521 listings (-17% MoM, -35% YoY) - Hangzhou: 6,402 listings (+6% MoM, -26% YoY) [6]. Price Segment Insights - In terms of price segments, there is an increase in the proportion of listings priced below 5 million and 30 million in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, while the proportion of listings priced between 5 million and 30 million has decreased [6]. - The listing activity for properties priced below 1 million has increased, indicating a growing willingness among owners to sell in the lower price segment [6][12]. Area Segment Insights - The new listing volume by area shows varied trends across the four cities: - Beijing and Hangzhou saw increases in listings for properties sized 50-70 square meters and 120-160 square meters, while Shanghai saw significant increases in listings for properties under 90 square meters [10][11]. - In Shenzhen, the increase in listings was more dispersed across various size segments, reflecting the overall price segment performance [10]. Future Market Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to maintain a fluctuating transaction scale due to prolonged transaction cycles and relatively high levels of listing inventory [12]. - The continuous decline in second-hand housing prices since the third quarter has diminished their stimulating effect on transaction volumes, particularly for first-time buyers, leading to an increase in market observation sentiment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The overall second-hand housing market is expected to continue its fluctuating trend, with a gradual decline in transaction volume projected for September 2025 [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - In September 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in 30 key cities decreased by 1% month-on-month but increased by 9% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [1]. - The new listing volume in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed a month-on-month increase, while only Hangzhou experienced a decline in new listings [2][8]. Group 2: Price Segmentation - In the high total price segment (800 million to 3 billion), the proportion of new listings in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has significantly increased, with Beijing seeing a rise in listings for both low and mid-high price segments [3][8]. - In September 2025, the proportion of listings under 600 million in Hangzhou exceeded 80%, but the concentration steadily declined, while higher price segments saw a slight increase [3][5]. Group 3: Area Segmentation - The increase in new listings was primarily concentrated in small (under 70 square meters) and large (over 120 square meters) housing segments across the four cities, indicating a diverse demand [7][8]. - The market for larger units (140 square meters and above) has shown growth, catering to high-end buyers seeking functional and spacious living options [7][8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment among homeowners in Beijing and Shenzhen has improved, leading to increased willingness to sell, while Hangzhou's market sentiment remains cautious with a notable decline in listing activity [2][8]. - The upcoming traditional marketing peak in October is expected to further influence the market dynamics, with new high-quality products entering the market potentially diverting demand from high-end segments [8].

Core Viewpoint - The overall second-hand housing market transaction scale is expected to continue its fluctuating trend, with a gradual decline observed in September 2025 [2][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - In September 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 30 key cities decreased by 1% month-on-month but increased by 9% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [2]. - The new listing volume in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed a month-on-month increase, while only Hangzhou experienced a decline [4][11]. Group 2: City-Specific Analysis - In September, Beijing and Shenzhen saw an increase in new listings, while Shanghai's year-on-year growth exceeded 20%. In contrast, Hangzhou's new listings fell by 41% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month, reflecting a steady decline in owner listing enthusiasm [4][11]. - The new listing volume in Beijing for properties priced below 300 million yuan and between 600-3000 million yuan showed a recovery in owner listing enthusiasm, with the 100-300 million yuan segment being the main contributor [7]. Group 3: Price Segment Insights - In the price segment analysis, high-priced properties (800-3000 million yuan) in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed increased listing activity, while Hangzhou's listings for properties under 6 million yuan accounted for over 80% but saw a slight decline [8][11]. - The concentration of listings in the 600-800 million yuan and 1000-3000 million yuan segments in Hangzhou increased, indicating a shift in owner behavior towards higher-priced properties [8]. Group 4: Size Segment Insights - The new listing volume in the small (below 70 sqm) and large (above 120 sqm) size segments increased, with notable growth in the 50 sqm and below category in Beijing and the 50-70 sqm category in Shenzhen and Hangzhou [10]. - Large-sized properties (above 140 sqm) in Beijing and Hangzhou also experienced a month-on-month increase, catering to high-end buyer demand [10]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The overall second-hand housing market is expected to maintain a fluctuating transaction scale, with high new listing volumes indicating increased supply. However, the traditional peak season in October may divert some high-end demand to new properties with better value [11]. - The transaction cycle may extend if there are no significant price advantages for first-time buyers, leading to potential challenges in inventory clearance for older properties in urban and suburban areas [11].