Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed those seen in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities, two-thirds of second-tier cities, and a very limited number of third-tier cities, which has been validated by recent sales performance [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and the management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [4] Summary by Sections National Housing Price Trends - In August, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing respective month-on-month changes of -0.1%, -0.3%, and -0.4% [11] - The second-hand housing market also saw a decline, with prices dropping 0.6% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year [11] - Notably, first-tier cities have experienced greater month-on-month declines since May, indicating a recent trend of correction in core urban areas [11] Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 0.7% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.16 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [14] - New home transaction volume in 30 cities reached 1.541 million square meters, up 12.9% week-on-week and 16.2% year-on-year [2] - The total transaction volume for new homes in the first 38 weeks of the year is 70.116 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - In the same week, 14 sample cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction area of 1.953 million square meters, marking a 0.7% increase week-on-week and a 55.0% increase year-on-year [3] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand homes is 76.157 million square meters, showing a year-on-year growth of 17.4% [3] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week of September 15-21, nine credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 8.020 billion yuan, which is a 14.1 billion yuan increase from the previous week [3]

Core Viewpoint - In August, new home transaction expectations remained stable at low levels due to supply constraints, with cities like Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Changsha showing slight increases [1][14]. Supply Overview - In August, supply in 28 key cities dropped by 40% year-on-year, returning to the second-lowest level of the year, with all first-tier cities under pressure except Guangzhou, which saw a 13% increase [4][5][7]. - The overall supply volume was the second-lowest of the year, with a total of 4.76 million square meters expected to be supplied, a 26% decrease month-on-month and a 38% decrease year-on-year [5][7]. - First-tier cities saw a significant decline in supply, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing over 90% drops in some cases, while Guangzhou was the only city to show growth [7][8]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is primarily focused on improvement needs, with 30% for basic needs, 51% for improvement, and 19% for high-end products [8][11]. - Over 70% of cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with cities like Jinan and Wuxi showing a significant increase in high-end product supply [8][11]. Market Predictions - New home transaction volumes are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines to within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai likely to see a temporary decline in transactions due to a shortage of quality supply [15][17]. - Some second-tier cities, such as Tianjin, Suzhou, and Changsha, may experience a phase of recovery, particularly with the introduction of new residential products [15][17]. Transaction Expectations - Expected transaction changes for August indicate a mixed outlook, with Beijing and Shanghai likely to see declines, while cities like Guangzhou and Nanning may experience slight increases [17].