国家统计局1月19日发布的数据显示，2025年12月，70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降，同 比降幅扩大；部分一线城市出现降幅收窄的积极信号，市场呈现分化特征。 数据显示，2025年12月，全国新建商品住宅价格环比上涨的城市数量有所减少，从此前的8个变为6个。 同时，房价下跌的城市数量也有所减少，从此前的59个变为58个，在供求双方博弈中，房价持平的城市 数量增多。 尽管整体承压，但一线城市核心区域呈现初步止跌回暖迹象。数据显示，2025年12月，一线城市新建商 品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅较上月收窄0.1个百分点；二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环 比均下降0.4%。 其中，上海市新房价格出现同比、环比双涨，新房价格环比上涨0.2%，同比大幅上涨4.8%。北京、广 州和深圳新房价格环比分别下降0.4%、0.6%和0.5%。 二手房市场调整则更为明显，2025年12月，70城房价普遍环比下跌。其中，一线城市二手住宅销售价格 环比下降0.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点。北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降1.3%、0.6%、1.0%和 0.6%。二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比均下降0.7%，降幅 ...

资料图 本文综合第一财经、北京商报、南方都市报、智通财经等 自2022年以来，中国房地产已经经历约4年的深度调整。目前，全国房价已普遍跌回2016年的水平，市场对房地产行业未来走向的关注不断升温。 2026年楼市将走向何方？能否升温反弹？是延续底部徘徊，还是迎来稳步升温？刚需一族可以出手了吗？有业内人士表示，从多项核心指标来看，本轮国内 房价调整幅度已明显超过国际平均水平，多指标预示二手房价调整已进入底部区间。 1 克而瑞统计数据显示，2025年国内商品房全年成交面积约为8.9亿平方米，大致相当于2009年的水平；成交金额约8.4万亿元，接近2015年的规模。其中，商 品住宅成交面积为7.4亿平方米，回到了2007年的水平。2025年，30个重点城市二手房全年成交面积达到2.14亿平方米，创下历史新高。但与此同时，价格调 整幅度也相当显著。 丁祖昱认为，从国际比较来看，本轮国内房价调整幅度已明显超过国际平均水平。综合1970年以来57个国家和地区的最长房价调整周期，国际房价平均调整 周期约4.5年，平均回调幅度约22%。相比之下，国内核心城市二手房的调整幅度已"明显偏深"。 业内人士：国内房价调整幅度明显超过 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in Guangzhou experienced a decline in both transaction volume and prices in 2025, with a 20% drop in transaction revenue and a similar decrease in property prices [1] - The total number of second-hand residential transactions reached 108,812 units in 2025, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, but still 32% higher than in 2022 [3] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes was 26,420 yuan per square meter, marking a 6.7% decline and the lowest level since 2021 [3] Group 1: Second-Hand Housing Market - In December 2025, the number of second-hand residential transactions was 8,787 units, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 4.4% [3] - The market showed stability in second-hand transactions due to price adjustments, which attracted buyers from the new home market [3] - The average monthly transaction volume for second-hand homes in the first half of 2025 was 9,436 units, the highest in three years [3] Group 2: New Housing Market - In 2025, the total number of new residential transactions was 63,755 units, down 10.6% year-on-year, with an average price of 34,438 yuan per square meter, a 4% decrease [5] - The inventory turnover period for new homes reached 24.5 months, the highest in five years, indicating a slowdown in market activity [5] - The average price in the Tianhe district for new homes increased by 6% to 80,143 yuan per square meter, driven by the introduction of luxury projects [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - The market is seeing a concentration of transactions in the 90-130 square meter range, indicating a demand for larger, improved living spaces [4] - The Guangzhou leading price index fell to 631.6, a 13.9% year-on-year decrease, with inventory levels reaching a historical high of 138,000 units [4] - The luxury market saw a 25% decrease in transactions for properties priced over 10 million yuan, with an average price of 89,438 yuan per square meter, reflecting cautious buyer sentiment [7]

Core Insights - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased from 6 to 8 in November, indicating a positive trend in the housing market [1][2] - The number of cities with declining new home prices decreased from 64 to 59, suggesting a stabilization in the market [1][2] - Shanghai led the year-on-year price increase among first-tier cities with a 5.1% rise, while other major cities experienced declines [2] New Home Prices - In November, first-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline in new home prices of 0.4%, with Shanghai increasing by 0.1% and Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreasing by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.9% respectively [1][2] - Second and third-tier cities experienced month-on-month price declines of 0.3% and 0.4%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1] Second-Hand Home Prices - Year-on-year, second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 5.8%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing declines of 6.8%, 4.6%, 7.2%, and 4.8% respectively [2][3] - Month-on-month, second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.1%, with Beijing experiencing the largest drop at 1.3% [3] Market Dynamics - The increase in second-hand home listings, which rose to 2.678 million units, has contributed to downward pressure on prices, with an average listing duration of 94.72 days [3][4] - The demand for second-hand homes remains strong, with 65.8% of potential buyers showing interest, but this has not translated into price increases due to oversupply [4] Policy Outlook - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market is expected to intensify, with policies aimed at controlling supply and promoting affordable housing [5] - The emphasis on localized strategies for inventory reduction and supply optimization is anticipated to support market stability in the coming years [5]

Core Viewpoint - Banks are increasingly engaging in real estate sales, acting as intermediaries to liquidate properties acquired through loan defaults, driven by economic transformation and rising non-performing loans [4][6][10]. Group 1: Reasons for Banks Selling Properties - Economic transformation has led to many enterprises and individuals facing operational difficulties, resulting in loan defaults and properties being returned to banks as collateral [6]. - Banks are required by law to dispose of these properties within a specific timeframe (two to three years), necessitating quick sales [6][10]. - Traditional auction markets have seen low demand for these properties, prompting banks to establish direct sales channels [8][10]. Group 2: Advantages of Bank-Sold Properties - Properties sold directly by banks often come with clear titles and completed ownership transfers, reducing risks for buyers [10]. - Banks typically price these properties significantly lower than market rates, with discounts starting at 20% and sometimes reaching 50% [10][12]. - In major cities, bank-listed properties are generally priced about 15% below market value, while in lower-tier cities, discounts can reach 30% [12][19]. Group 3: Market Impact and Consumer Considerations - The aggressive pricing strategies of banks may lead to a downward spiral in property values, particularly in weaker markets [21][23]. - Consumers are advised to conduct thorough inspections and verify property conditions and outstanding fees before purchasing [14][16]. - The phenomenon of banks selling properties is not expected to trigger a significant overall decline in housing prices, but localized impacts may occur [16][19]. Group 4: Broader Implications for the Real Estate Market - The current situation reflects a shift in the perception of real estate as an investment, emphasizing the need for rational decision-making among potential buyers [23][24]. - The ongoing sales by banks may serve as a lesson in economic realities, highlighting that properties are primarily for living rather than solely for investment [24].

Core Insights - The overall trend in the real estate market shows a decline in new residential property prices across 70 major cities in October, with some cities like Shanghai, Urumqi, Hangzhou, and Hefei experiencing price increases [1][2][3] - The analysis indicates that first-tier cities are stabilizing while second-tier cities show internal differentiation, and third and fourth-tier cities are under overall pressure [1][3] New Housing Market - In October, new residential property prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai seeing a 0.3% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Year-on-year, Shanghai's new housing prices rose by 5.7%, contrasting with declines in Beijing (2.0%), Guangzhou (4.2%), and Shenzhen (2.6%) [2][3] - The demand for improved housing, particularly in the 90 to 144 square meter range, is identified as a core support for transactions [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - In October, second-hand residential property prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, with Beijing seeing a 1.1% decline [4] - Year-on-year, second-hand prices in first-tier cities decreased, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 4.7%, 3.4%, 6.4%, and 3.3% respectively [4] - The market for second-hand homes is under pressure, but the willingness of owners to significantly reduce prices is decreasing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [5] Market Outlook - The market is expected to show characteristics of "stable volume and weak prices" with ongoing differentiation as policies are strengthened and developers push for year-end performance [1][3] - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for inventory reduction and boosting housing consumption, with a focus on enhancing market activity and confidence [3]

中国经济网北京11月14日讯(记者李方)国家统计局今日发布10月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况统计数据 显示，10月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比和同比均下降。 国家统计局数据显示，10月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅与上月相同。其 中，上海上涨0.3%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.1%、0.8%和0.7%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格 环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.5%，降幅扩大0.1个百分 点。 10月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大1.2个百分点。其中，北京、上 海、广州和深圳分别下降4.7%、3.4%、6.4%和3.3%。二线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降5.2%，降幅 扩大0.2个百分点。三线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降5.7%，降幅与上月相同。 58安居客研究院院长张波分析认为，一线城市改善需求依然稳定，改善型需求成为成交核心支撑。高库 存中小城市的房价下行压力依然存在，库存去化周期超20个月的城市，受房企"以价换量"冲刺业绩影 响，新房价格环比依然下行。"从安居客线上数据来看，全国二手房 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ka-shing's predictions about the real estate market have largely come true, indicating a significant shift in property values and rental income, leading to challenges for families holding multiple properties [1][18]. Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market has been experiencing a downturn since 2021, with property prices declining in many cities, including Zhengzhou and Shijiazhuang in 2022, and Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2023 [5][18]. - By 2024, the number of vacant homes is increasing, and rental rates are decreasing, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [5][18]. - The younger generation shows a lower willingness to buy homes, prioritizing quality of life over large mortgages [5][18]. Group 2: Consequences for Property Owners - Families owning multiple properties face three potential outcomes: inability to sell properties leading to depreciation, reduced rental income due to a cooling rental market, and increased holding costs [7][9][11]. - The rental market has cooled significantly, with many landlords unable to cover maintenance costs through rental income, particularly outside prime urban areas [9][12]. - Holding costs are rising due to increasing property taxes and maintenance fees, creating financial strain for property owners [11][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The oversupply of new homes and a lack of buyers, especially in second and third-tier cities, have led to a saturated market [7][14]. - The introduction of property taxes is expected to further increase the financial burden on families with multiple properties, pushing them to sell at lower prices [12][14]. - The real estate market is transitioning from an investment asset to a consumption good, with a significant drop in speculative buying [14][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While some properties in prime locations may retain value, most properties in suburban or second-tier areas are facing significant challenges [16][18]. - Investors are advised to be cautious and avoid following market trends blindly, focusing instead on genuine demand rather than speculation [16][19]. - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, but the adjustment period will be prolonged, necessitating careful asset management by property owners [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a notable increase in the number of cities witnessing falling property prices, contrasting sharply with previous trends of rising prices during peak seasons [2][4]. Market Dynamics - As of August this year, only 29 out of 100 key cities in the country saw an increase in new home prices, while 69 cities experienced price declines. In the secondary housing market, only 23 cities maintained rising prices, with 74 cities reporting price drops [2]. - Local governments are attempting to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as relaxing purchase restrictions, lowering down payment ratios, and reducing mortgage rates, but these efforts have had limited success [4]. Future Outlook - The future of the real estate market is expected to show a divergent pattern, with core locations in first and second-tier cities potentially still having room for price increases due to their scarcity and quality resources. In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities may face significant price declines [8]. - Notable figures like Cao Dewang and independent economist Ma Guangyuan predict that the value of real estate will revert to its fundamental nature, suggesting that the market will not see a rebound and that buyers in both high-tier and lower-tier cities may face price adjustment risks [10][11]. Factors Influencing the Market - A rapid decline in rigid housing demand is observed, as people's expectations for future income have decreased, leading many families to abandon their home-buying plans. Central bank surveys indicate a shift towards saving rather than investing or consuming [12]. - The exit of speculative investors from the market is contributing to a shrinking demand for real estate, as the previous profit-driven buying behavior is no longer sustainable in a declining price environment [12]. - The potential introduction of property taxes within the next five years is anticipated to increase holding costs and suppress speculative behavior, further impacting property values [12]. - The acceleration of affordable housing construction is expected to diversify the real estate market, with various housing options coexisting, thereby redistributing demand away from traditional commodity housing [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, with previously high property prices showing signs of decline, providing hope for those without homes [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Property Prices - Property prices in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have reached levels around 6 to 7 million yuan, making home ownership unattainable for many [3]. - In second-tier cities such as Hangzhou and Wuhan, prices range from 2 to 3 million yuan, while even third and fourth-tier cities require around 1.5 million yuan for a standard property [3]. - The average monthly income for most residents is between 3,000 to 6,000 yuan, highlighting a significant gap between income and housing affordability [3]. Group 2: Recent Market Trends - Since the second half of last year, the real estate market has shown signs of cooling, with the national average property price dropping from 11,100 yuan per square meter to 9,526 yuan as of May this year, a decline of over 15% [5]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that in 70 major cities, 34 cities have seen property prices revert to two years ago, 27 cities to three years ago, and 6 cities to five years ago [6]. Group 3: Implications for Homebuyers and Property Owners - The decline in property prices is a positive development for those without homes, bringing them closer to the possibility of home ownership [8]. - In contrast, families owning multiple properties face challenges, with over 41% of households owning two or more properties [10]. - The number of vacant homes in China has reportedly exceeded 100 million, enough to accommodate 300 to 400 million people, exacerbating the issue for property owners [10]. Group 4: Challenges for Property Owners - Property owners are at risk of asset depreciation as the downward trend in prices spreads from northern to southern cities and from lower-tier to higher-tier cities [11]. - Older properties, particularly those over 20 years old, are facing decreased demand due to bank loan restrictions, increasing the likelihood of asset loss for owners [11]. - The cost of holding properties is rising, with ongoing mortgage payments and the impending expansion of property tax trials, which will further increase costs for property investors [11].