可从特朗普时代开始，游戏规则彻底变了。关税政策变得比川剧变脸还快，翻手为云，覆手为雨。 今天喊打喊杀加征25%，明天可能因为游说压力又搞出 个豁免清单，后天说不定一言不合又全部加回来。 最经典的就是汽车零部件行业。去年5月刚被重重加税，整个产业链叫苦不迭，结果没过几个月，部分产品又获得了关税豁免。这种朝令夕改，让企业主们 彻底懵了：订单刚算好利润，关税一变动，成本直接倒挂。 货发出去，就是明着亏本，每出一个集装箱，心都在滴血；但不发货，就是违约，赔钱又丢客 户，多年信誉毁于一旦。 这种发货亏死，不发货亏死的左右为难，就像一场无休止的凌迟，折磨着无数外贸企业的神经。一位浙江的零部件老板跟我说："这种政策不确定性，比没 有订单更可怕。 没单子，我至少知道要出去找客户。有单子却因为政策不敢做，这种痛苦和焦虑，无法形容。" 最近和一个做外贸三十多年的朋友聊天，他一句话点破了如今很多外贸人的心境："就算特朗普现在过来，拍着胸脯保证关税全免，甚至倒贴钱，咱们中国 老板们心里那根弦，也再也松不回去了。美国这朋友，能处，但不能全信，更不敢把身家性命都押上去。" 这话听起来有点绝对，但背后全是真金白银换来的教训。 "政策渣男" ...

Core Viewpoint - Baiguoyuan (02411) is experiencing a strategic transformation, leading to a forecasted net loss of 330-380 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to decrease by no more than 25% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of 330-380 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue decreasing by up to 25% [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of stores is expected to be 4,386, a reduction of over 700 stores compared to the end of the previous year [1] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to three main factors: a shift towards high-quality and cost-effective strategies, ongoing store network optimization, and increased one-time expenses related to asset impairment and stock incentive costs [1] Group 2: Strategic Transformation - Starting in the second half of 2024, Baiguoyuan is shifting from a "high-end" strategy to a dual approach of "high quality + high cost-effectiveness," launching promotional activities for sensitive fruits and enhancing store service standards [2] - The company has reported a stabilization and recovery in single-store sales, with expected double-digit growth in customer traffic and improvements in gross profit per store [2] - A new round of store expansion is set to begin, focusing on different store types to match various consumer preferences and enhancing overall profitability through product diversification and store scale expansion [2] Group 3: Market Potential and Competitive Advantage - The Chinese fruit industry has a market size exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, with a projected annual compound growth rate of 7.6% over the next five years, indicating significant integration potential due to a fragmented market [3] - Baiguoyuan, as a leading player in the domestic fruit retail sector, has a strong foundation in supply chain, brand effect, and operational capabilities, with over 300 global procurement team members and partnerships with more than 800 direct sourcing bases across 26 countries [3] - By the end of 2024, Baiguoyuan has launched 46 proprietary fruit brands, achieving a sales share of 14.7%, which has created a differentiated advantage and strong brand recognition [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation aimed at improving its operational efficiency and profitability, despite facing short-term losses and a reduction in store count [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders between 330 million to 380 million yuan, with revenue decreasing by no more than 25% [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of stores is projected to be 4,386, a decrease of over 700 stores compared to the end of the previous year [1]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to three main factors: a shift towards a high-quality and cost-effective strategy, optimization of the store network, and increased one-time expenses related to asset impairment and stock incentive costs [1]. - The company is actively adjusting its product structure to lower gross margins and benefit consumers, while also focusing on closing underperforming stores and concentrating resources on advantageous locations [1][2]. Group 3: Operational Improvements - Starting in the second half of 2024, the company will implement a dual strategy of "high quality + high cost performance," launching promotional activities for sensitive fruit products and enhancing store service standards [2]. - The company has reported a stabilization and recovery in single-store sales, with expected double-digit growth in customer traffic and improvements in gross profit per store [2]. Group 4: Market Potential and Competitive Position - The Chinese fruit industry has a market size exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 7.6% over the next five years, indicating significant growth potential [3]. - As a leading player in the domestic fruit retail market, the company has a strong foundation in supply chain management, brand effect, and operational capabilities, with over 300 global procurement team members and partnerships with more than 800 direct sourcing bases [3]. - The company has launched 46 proprietary fruit product brands, achieving a sales share of 14.7%, which enhances its competitive advantage and market share in a fragmented industry [3].