Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On July 30, polysilicon hit the daily limit again, with the main contract 2509 closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 8.87%, and the open interest increasing by 22,849 lots to 164,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 8,085 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract 2509 closing at 9,285 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.2%, and the open interest decreasing by 33,993 lots to 243,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropped to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. - The market has been spreading news about capacity mergers and acquisitions, and the Photovoltaic Industry Association has clarified some news. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has once again emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against involution and promoting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news again, and industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon [2]. - Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand is fulfilled, the sentiment has cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to break through the previous high again. After the exchange adjusted the margin and handling fees, investors should avoid heavy - position chasing up or selling short. They should appropriately pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread space and the PS/SI price ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and the progress of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 9,085 yuan/ton on July 29 to 9,345 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 260 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 8,995 yuan/ton to 9,325 yuan/ton, a rise of 330 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon generally increased, with the increase ranging from 0 to 200 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 9,250 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 255 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton on July 29 to 54,705 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton to 54,585 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,780 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of polysilicon increased, with the increase ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 44,500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from 6,305 yuan/ton to 8,085 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon** - The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged at 12,500 yuan/ton, 13,500 yuan/ton, and 13,000 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,000 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,082 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased from 251,965 tons to 248,550 tons, a decrease of 3,415 tons. The social inventory decreased by 300 tons to 442,600 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,070 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 83,400 tons to 90,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons. The social inventory remained unchanged at 272,000 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices** - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15][16]. - **Inventory** - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22]. - **Cost and Profit** - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][31]. 3. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than ten years of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The silicon industry is facing significant challenges in 2025, with prices consistently below production costs, leading to widespread losses among producers. Group 1: Market Prices and Production Costs - In the first half of 2025, the average price of polysilicon dropped to 38,000 yuan per ton, below the industry average cost for over 14 months [1] - Industrial silicon prices fell to 9,648 yuan per ton by the end of April 2025, remaining below average costs for nearly 3 months [1] - The average price of 182mm silicon wafers decreased to 0.95 yuan per piece, with cost overruns lasting over 2 months [1] Group 2: Production and Operational Rates - To address supply-demand imbalances, companies reduced production, resulting in historical lows for monthly operating rates: 41.9% for industrial silicon, 38.6% for polysilicon, and 44.3% for silicon wafers [1] - The average monthly production of polysilicon in the first half of 2025 was 100,000 tons, with a significant drop to 92,000 tons in February, a year-on-year decrease of 47.4% [1] - The overall operating rate of the top five polysilicon producers was 42.2%, with the lowest at 24.1% [1] Group 3: Inventory and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Prior to 2023, polysilicon inventory was maintained at around 2 weeks of production, but by the end of 2023, inventory accumulated to 63,000 tons due to supply surplus [3] - By the end of 2024, total inventory reached a historical high of 398,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 335,000 tons [3] - In the first half of 2025, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 597,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 44.0%, with a slight inventory reduction of 31,000 tons by the end of June [3] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Adjustments - Polysilicon prices showed a "stable then declining" trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 36,800 yuan per ton, down 28.8% year-on-year [7] - From January to mid-April, prices increased slightly by 2.7% but fell by 17.5% from late April to the end of June [7] - The global demand for polysilicon in 2025 is projected at 1.4 million tons, with domestic demand around 1.3 million tons [8] Group 5: Industry Restructuring and Future Outlook - The polysilicon industry is undergoing significant adjustments and restructuring, with government interventions aimed at stabilizing prices and production [8][10] - Measures include capacity mergers, performance standards, and efforts to avoid excessive competition that leads to price declines [10] - The industry is expected to face ongoing challenges, but with coordinated efforts, a more balanced market may emerge [10]