炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 记者 王珍 财政部周二晚间发布的数据显示，1-7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%，为今年以来首次 实现正增长；一般公共预算支出160737亿元，同比增长3.4%。 分析人士指出，近期"反内卷"行动推动企业盈利修复、个税征管工作加强、以及资本市场回暖带动税收收入增速 加快，是一般公共预算收入累计增速在7月转正的主要原因。 数据来源：财政部 制图：智通财经 东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳对智通财经表示，7月税收收入增速加快，主要与价格改善、个税征管加强及 股市上涨等因素有关，增值税、车辆购置税、非证券交易印花税、房地产相关的契税和土地增值税等税种收入增 速变化则与相关经济活动走势一致。 近期"反内卷"行动对价格的提升较为明显。7月，工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）环比下降0.2%，降幅较上月收窄 0.2个百分点，为今年3月以来首次降幅收窄；不包含食品和能源价格的核心居民消费价格指数同比涨幅连续3个 月回升，反映出服务类消费和耐用消费品价格在政策推动下有所改善。 7月，四大税种普涨。其中，企业所得税收入同比增长6.4%， ...

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Manufacturing Performance - The foundation for economic recovery remains solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [2][3]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a "ballast" for the economy [2][3]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since March, reflects improved market conditions in certain industries [4]. Group 2: Impact of Anti-Competition Measures - The anti-competition measures have positively influenced corporate expectations, as indicated by rising indices for purchasing prices, output prices, employment, supplier delivery times, and production activity expectations [4][5]. - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 51.5%, while the output price index rose to 48.3%, showing significant recovery in specific sectors like petroleum and black metal processing [4]. Group 3: Consumer Activity and Seasonal Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline but showing initial signs of summer consumption boosting economic activity [6][7]. - Retail activity is on the rise, with the retail business activity index surpassing the critical point, and new order indices showing significant increases [7]. - Travel and leisure activities are also gaining momentum, with indices for railway and air transport exceeding 60%, indicating strong consumer willingness to travel [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The summer consumption boost is expected to continue into August, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI reflects a contraction, but the underlying economic recovery remains solid, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand [3][7]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a stabilizing force in the economy [3][7]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index indicates a positive shift in business expectations due to anti-involution measures [10][12]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, showing a slight decline but remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [2][14]. - Summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects, with significant increases in retail and travel activities, although the accommodation and catering sectors remain below the critical point [14][15][16]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to support stable economic growth and quality improvement in the second half of the year [8][17]. - Analysts predict that the positive impact of summer consumption will continue into August, contributing to a gradual increase in investment and consumption activities [16][17].

Economic Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in growth [1] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a tightening in market demand [3] - The new export orders index is reported at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, further highlighting weak demand [3] - Despite the demand weakness, the production index remains at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [3] - The raw material purchase price index has risen to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in raw material prices [3] Price Trends - The ex-factory price index for manufactured goods is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [3] - The basic raw materials sector is driving the stabilization and recovery of market prices, with the purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52% [4] Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises show improvement with a PMI of 49.5%, and small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, indicating varying levels of economic health across different company sizes [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slowdown but still within the expansion range [8] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [8] - Consumer spending during the summer shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50% and 60%, respectively, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [9] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to continue steady growth [8][9] - The overall economic foundation remains solid, with expectations for continued stable expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [5]

央视网消息：上半年中国经济实现稳中向好，那么下半年经济要怎样发力？7月30日，中共中央政治局会议召开，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济 工作。下半年经济工作的重点是什么？还有哪些相应的政策需要出台和落地？我们如何实现全年经济增长目标以及"十四五"的圆满收官？《新闻1+1》本期 节目主持人董倩连线宏观经济学家、上海财经大学校长刘元春，带来分析解读。 与四月份中央政治局会议部署经济工作相比，目前国际环境和国内压力，发生了哪些变化 宏观经济学家 上海财经大学校长 刘元春：国际方面，4月25日中央政治局召开会议的时候，当时是美国全面释放对等关税，引起了全球恐慌和不确定性，从 而带来贸易市场、投资市场一系列的振荡，目前我们看到，美国在关税方面与一些国家已经谈判，中美贸易之间的一些谈判也取得了一些进展，围绕着美国 关税战所出现的贸易不确定性和全球动荡，没有像上半年那么剧烈，但可能下半年我们所面临的国际形势的复杂性和严峻性，也并没有减缓。 从国内来说，上半年经济发展是超预期的，GDP达到了5.3%的增长速度，但同时一些结构性问题依然比较严峻，在6月份的数据中也有所反映，表明我们可 能还面临一定的不确定性。 中央政治局会 ...

宏观研究 宏观专题 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 29 日 湘财证券研究所 反内卷号角吹响，锂行业迎来积极变化 相关研究： 核心要点： 正视内卷：中国开始采取行动 2025 年 7 月 1 日，（二十届）中央财经委员会第六次会议强调"纵深推进 全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争， 引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。 此次中央财经委员会第六次会议虽然未采用内卷措辞，但是不失为是此前 综合整治"内卷"竞争的政策延续，此次中央财经委员会表态更加落到实 处，明确指出"治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落 后产能有序退出"，具有实际操作意义。是故，许多行业闻风开展反内卷行 动。这场反内卷行动顺应经济发展需要，直击中国经济循环堵点，将会在 未来很长时期里改造和提振中国经济，将会载入史册。 锂行业整改纠错，迎来积极变化 我们尝试以宏观视角切入，观察反内卷行动下的产业变化。锂行业是新能 源汽车-锂电池产业链的最上游，新能源汽车销量快速增长吸引各路资本大 举进军锂行业，竞争愈发激烈。近年来随着产能释放，锂价自 2023 年起开 启周期下行并持续低迷。 近期锂行业接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silicon industry is facing significant challenges in 2025, with prices consistently below production costs, leading to widespread losses among producers. Group 1: Market Prices and Production Costs - In the first half of 2025, the average price of polysilicon dropped to 38,000 yuan per ton, below the industry average cost for over 14 months [1] - Industrial silicon prices fell to 9,648 yuan per ton by the end of April 2025, remaining below average costs for nearly 3 months [1] - The average price of 182mm silicon wafers decreased to 0.95 yuan per piece, with cost overruns lasting over 2 months [1] Group 2: Production and Operational Rates - To address supply-demand imbalances, companies reduced production, resulting in historical lows for monthly operating rates: 41.9% for industrial silicon, 38.6% for polysilicon, and 44.3% for silicon wafers [1] - The average monthly production of polysilicon in the first half of 2025 was 100,000 tons, with a significant drop to 92,000 tons in February, a year-on-year decrease of 47.4% [1] - The overall operating rate of the top five polysilicon producers was 42.2%, with the lowest at 24.1% [1] Group 3: Inventory and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Prior to 2023, polysilicon inventory was maintained at around 2 weeks of production, but by the end of 2023, inventory accumulated to 63,000 tons due to supply surplus [3] - By the end of 2024, total inventory reached a historical high of 398,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 335,000 tons [3] - In the first half of 2025, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 597,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 44.0%, with a slight inventory reduction of 31,000 tons by the end of June [3] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Adjustments - Polysilicon prices showed a "stable then declining" trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 36,800 yuan per ton, down 28.8% year-on-year [7] - From January to mid-April, prices increased slightly by 2.7% but fell by 17.5% from late April to the end of June [7] - The global demand for polysilicon in 2025 is projected at 1.4 million tons, with domestic demand around 1.3 million tons [8] Group 5: Industry Restructuring and Future Outlook - The polysilicon industry is undergoing significant adjustments and restructuring, with government interventions aimed at stabilizing prices and production [8][10] - Measures include capacity mergers, performance standards, and efforts to avoid excessive competition that leads to price declines [10] - The industry is expected to face ongoing challenges, but with coordinated efforts, a more balanced market may emerge [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The passage of the "Great Beauty" Act may serve as a relay for the "anti-involution" action, further boosting commodity prices. It can be observed from both macro - aggregate and structural - variety dimensions. The act will have different impacts on the economy, inflation, and various commodity prices in the short and long term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Content Event Summary - On July 4, 2025, US President Trump signed the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill into law. The bill passed the House of Representatives on July 3 with 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was approved by the Senate on July 1. It is a landmark legislative agenda after Trump returned to the White House in early 2025, covering corporate tax cuts, personal and family tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, compression of Medicaid, and cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [1] Impact on the Macro - Aggregate - Globally, the "Great Beauty" Act's measures such as raising the debt ceiling and corporate tax cuts will boost US economic growth and inflation in the short term but damage US credit and increase the possibility of stagflation in the long term. It will also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Asset prices will show a weak dollar, rising US Treasury yields and US stocks, and commodities will benefit in the short term. Domestically, the act is expected to support the rebound of commodity prices [2] Impact on Structural Varieties - **Gold**: Benefited from short - term dollar weakness and long - term US credit weakening, but the slowdown of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations weakens the increase in gold prices [4] - **New - energy - related Commodities**: Measures like abolishing new - energy tax credits in the act will hit the terminal demand of the new - energy industry, reducing the industrial demand for silver, copper, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, etc. [4] - **Traditional Energy (Crude Oil)**: It will benefit in the short term but face long - term supply increases due to policies in the act, showing a short - term positive and long - term negative impact [4] - **Agricultural Products**: The impact is less than that on industrial products. The cut to the SNAP will suppress short - term consumer demand and indirectly reduce the demand for agricultural products [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The average transaction price of multi-crystalline silicon N-type raw materials has slightly rebounded to 34,700 yuan/ton, up 0.87% week-on-week [1] - The market for silicon materials shows signs of recovery, with some previously delayed orders being renegotiated at higher-than-expected prices [1][2] - The average price of multi-crystalline silicon has been below the industry average cost for over a year, leading to the shutdown of several companies due to long-term losses [1][5] Group 2: Price Dynamics - InfoLink reports that new single transactions are close to 34,000-36,000 yuan/ton, but actual transactions remain low due to inventory and weak demand [2] - The average transaction prices for N-type single crystal silicon wafers have decreased, with N-type G10L at 0.86 yuan/piece, down 3.37% week-on-week [2] - The decline in silicon wafer prices is attributed to weak demand and pressure from battery manufacturers to lower prices [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The silicon industry association believes that silicon wafer prices are currently below the cash costs of most producers, leading to a strong willingness to maintain prices [3] - Despite potential price stabilization due to production cuts, InfoLink warns of continued downward pressure on prices in the short term due to weak end-demand [3][4] - The overall uncertainty in the market is increasing, with potential for further price declines unless upstream prices can be stabilized [4][6] Group 4: Production and Demand - In June, domestic multi-crystalline silicon production was approximately 102,000 tons, remaining stable and matching demand [5] - The total domestic production for the first half of the year was 596,000 tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 44.1% [5] - The forecast for global multi-crystalline silicon demand in 2025 is about 1.4 million tons, with domestic demand at approximately 1.3 million tons [5]