行 业 研 究 2025 年 08 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 基础化工 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《中共中央政治局会议再度明确"反 内卷"决心，国家发改委将对内卷行 业展开摸底调查—化工行业周报》 -2025.8.3 《多国政策支持生物燃料行业发展， 行业景气度向上—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.1 《农药行业开展"正风治卷"三年行 动，看好供给优化助力盈利修复、景 气反转—行业点评报告》-2025.7.28 ——行业深度报告 氯碱盈利已触底，PVC 亏损严重，反内卷政策推动下行业盈利有望修复。2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议明确强调，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞 争，推动落后产能有序退出。从氯碱行业上市公司 2024 年利润情况看，在我们统计 的 14 家上市企业中，6 家企业的氯碱业务处于盈亏平衡或者亏损的状态，可能非上 市公司的情况更差。据我们测算，2025 年 7 月，片碱行业平均盈利约为 1,053 元/吨、 PVC 行业平均亏 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On July 30, polysilicon hit the daily limit again, with the main contract 2509 closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 8.87%, and the open interest increasing by 22,849 lots to 164,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 8,085 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract 2509 closing at 9,285 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.2%, and the open interest decreasing by 33,993 lots to 243,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropped to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. - The market has been spreading news about capacity mergers and acquisitions, and the Photovoltaic Industry Association has clarified some news. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has once again emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against involution and promoting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news again, and industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon [2]. - Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand is fulfilled, the sentiment has cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to break through the previous high again. After the exchange adjusted the margin and handling fees, investors should avoid heavy - position chasing up or selling short. They should appropriately pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread space and the PS/SI price ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and the progress of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 9,085 yuan/ton on July 29 to 9,345 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 260 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 8,995 yuan/ton to 9,325 yuan/ton, a rise of 330 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon generally increased, with the increase ranging from 0 to 200 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 9,250 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 255 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton on July 29 to 54,705 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton to 54,585 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,780 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of polysilicon increased, with the increase ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 44,500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from 6,305 yuan/ton to 8,085 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon** - The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged at 12,500 yuan/ton, 13,500 yuan/ton, and 13,000 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,000 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,082 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased from 251,965 tons to 248,550 tons, a decrease of 3,415 tons. The social inventory decreased by 300 tons to 442,600 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,070 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 83,400 tons to 90,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons. The social inventory remained unchanged at 272,000 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices** - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15][16]. - **Inventory** - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22]. - **Cost and Profit** - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][31]. 3. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than ten years of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core Viewpoints - Policy promotes the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and the macro - level has a certain boost to the polyolefin market. New device overhauls in production enterprises ease some supply - demand pressure, but some devices restart. PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. Crude oil is weakly sorted, propane prices continue to be weak, cost - side support is weak. Downstream demand remains weak in the seasonal consumption off - season, and new order volume is limited. In the short - term future, there are no new overhaul plans, and supply is expected to increase. With weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7290元/吨（+74），PP主力合约收盘价为7091元/吨（+78），LL华北现货为7200元/吨（+80），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+50），LL华北基差为 - 90元/吨（+6），LL华东基差为 - 100元/吨（ - 74），PP华东基差为29元/吨（ - 28） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.2% (+0.4%), PP operating rate is 77.3% (+0.7%). PE oil - based production profit is 74.8 yuan/ton (+14.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 285.2 yuan/ton (+14.8), PDH - based PP production profit is 315.8 yuan/ton (+14.0) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 142.0 yuan/ton (-4.8), PP import profit is - 694.2 yuan/ton (-5.0), PP export profit is 36.8 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.5% (-0.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.4% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.8% (+0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. In the future, with weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity has resurfaced, leading to a new high in rebar spot prices since April [1]. - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at better aligning supply with demand [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [10][19]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, up 0.07% from the previous month [10][19]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high since April, with a weekly increase of 0.93% [1]. - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91%, up 1.0 percentage points week-on-week [9][41]. - The average daily crude steel output for key enterprises in early July 2025 was 2.097 million tons [1][41]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 75.99%, an increase of 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20% [2]. Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.14 this week [3]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 160 yuan/ton, up 14.29% from last week [3]. Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [3]. Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.09%, with the best-performing sector being commercial vehicles, which rose by 5.98% [3]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish on rebound [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullback [2] - Soda ash: Narrow - range sideways [2] - Caustic soda: Uptrend slowing [2] - Methanol: Bearish on rebound [2] - Urea: Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak sideways [2] Core Views - Crude oil: Supply pressure is rising, and oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ expansion [1][3][5] - LPG: Cost - end drag from falling oil prices leads to weakness [7][9] - L: Cost support weakens, and it shows a weak sideways trend [11][12] - PP: Cost support fades, with a weak sideways trend due to factors like new capacity [15][17] - PVC: Market sentiment weakens, with a short - term long and long - term short strategy [19][21] - PX: Tight supply - demand balance vs. falling oil prices, with a bearish sideways trend [23][24] - PTA/PR: Supply - demand expected to be loose, with attention on shorting opportunities on rallies [25][26] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory vs. loose supply - demand expectations, focus on shorting opportunities [28][29] - Glass: Inventory continues to decline, supported by moving averages [32][33] - Soda ash: Difficult inventory reduction, weak rebound in the futures market [34][36] - Caustic soda: Liquid chlorine subsidy narrows, and the uptrend slows [37][39] - Methanol: Device maintenance vs. MTO demand negative feedback, bearish on rebound [40] - Urea: Supply pressure is large, with a bearish outlook [2] - Asphalt: Cost - end oil price decline and sufficient raw materials lead to a bearish outlook [2] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, and supply is under pressure [2] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market situation**: International oil prices fell overnight. WTI dropped 2.40%, Brent 0.72%, and SC 0.51% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In supply, Russian exports decreased, and US rig count dropped. In demand, China's imports increased, and IEA adjusted demand growth forecasts. In inventory, US commercial crude inventory rose [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, light - position shorting with call option protection. Long - term, the price range is expected to be $60 - 70/barrel [6]. LPG - **Market situation**: On July 15, PG main contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil price pressure, supply is relatively sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. PDH device profit decreased, and inventories increased [9]. - **Strategy**: Light - position shorting, with a focus on the range of 4050 - 4150 yuan/ton [10]. L - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices both declined. North China basis was - 71 (compared to - 33 previously) [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support weakens, supply pressure increases, and demand is in the off - season. New device production is expected in July - August [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long and long - term short, with a focus on the range of 7150 - 7300 yuan/ton [14]. PP - **Market situation**: East China basis was 42 (compared to - 7 previously). The market is expected to be weak [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support fades, new capacity is planned in the third quarter, and exports are expected to maintain high growth [17]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [17]. PVC - **Market situation**: Changzhou basis was - 125 (compared to + 35 previously). The market is expected to be weak [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Upward drive is insufficient, inventory is rising, and exports are weakening. New devices are starting up [21]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long and long - term short, with a focus on the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [21]. PX - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China spot was 7120 yuan/ton, and PX09 closed at 6694 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, inventory is high, and it follows cost fluctuations [24]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 6660 - 6760 yuan/ton [24]. PTA - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China was 4715 yuan/ton, and TA09 closed at 4700 yuan/ton [25]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream demand is weakening, and inventory is decreasing [26]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 4670 - 4730 yuan/ton [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China spot was 4383 yuan/ton, and EG09 closed at 4305 yuan/ton [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weakening, and low inventory provides some support [29]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities, with a focus on the range of 4270 - 4340 yuan/ton [30]. Glass - **Market situation**: Spot prices increased, and the futures market pulled back. Basis widened [33]. - **Fundamentals**: Macro - policy expectations, inventory decreased, and cost increased. Spot prices were raised [33]. - **Strategy**: Buy on pullback, with a focus on the range of 1050 - 1080 yuan/ton [33]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: Heavy - alkali spot prices were stable, and the futures market declined. Basis widened [35]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, inventory reduction is difficult, and policy speculation has weakened [36]. - **Strategy**: Narrow - range sideways, with a focus on the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2]. Caustic Soda - **Market situation**: Spot prices were stable, the futures market was flat, basis strengthened, and warehouse receipts decreased [38]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure may ease, demand from alumina is recovering, and inventory decreased [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions cautiously, with a focus on the range of 2480 - 2530 yuan/ton [39]. Methanol - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China spot was 2381 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2370 yuan/ton [40]. - **Fundamentals**: Device maintenance vs. MTO demand negative feedback, and inventory may start to accumulate [40]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 2365 - 2400 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - **Market situation**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is weak. Exports are growing [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, industrial and agricultural demand is weak, and cost provides some support [2]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 1735 - 1765 yuan/ton [2]. Asphalt - **Market situation**: Cost - end oil price pressure, supply decreased slightly, and inventory increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil price decline, supply is relatively sufficient, and demand is affected by weather [2]. - **Strategy**: Light - position shorting, with a focus on the range of 3550 - 3650 yuan/ton [2]. Propylene - **Market situation**: Cost - end oil price decline, supply is under pressure [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support weakens, new capacity is about to be put into production [2]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EB2508 rose 2.73% to close at 7,520 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 0.05% to 366,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05% to 80.03%. On the demand side, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) decreased by 5.21% to 243,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 2.99% to 194,000 tons, the inventory at East China ports increased by 12.85% to 1.115 million tons, and the inventory at South China ports decreased by 40% to 90,000 tons. After the centralized restart of large - scale plants, the styrene operating rate has remained high. This week, a 300,000 - ton plant in Hebei is planned to shut down, while a 350,000 - ton plant in the Northeast and a 120,000 - ton plant in Central China will restart, with production and capacity utilization expected to rise slightly. In the off - season of terminal demand, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The finished product inventory of downstream "Three S" products is high, and the profits of EPS and PS are still low; although the profit of ABS has recovered due to weak costs, the demand has not improved. The total inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and it is more difficult to destock. In terms of cost, the US may maintain sanctions on some oil - producing countries, and the situation in the Red Sea region has deteriorated, causing recent international oil prices to fluctuate strongly; the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to remain loose, and its price lacks support. The market is trading on the expectation of the exit of backward production capacity, and the industrial products sector is mostly rising. Pay attention to the resistance around 7,600 on the EB2508 contract [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract (EB) was 425,364 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 129,452 lots; the closing price was 7,520 yuan/ton. The closing price of the September contract was 7,426 yuan/ton, up 163 yuan. The long position of the top 20 holders was 382,996 lots, a decrease of 292 lots; the net long position was 263,392 lots, a decrease of 16,825 lots; the short position was 399,821 lots, an increase of 2,618 lots. The total number of styrene warehouse receipts was 7,908 lots, a decrease of 6 lots. The FOB South Korea middle - price of styrene was 905 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR China middle - price of styrene was 915 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices of styrene in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 7,755 yuan/ton, 7,625 yuan/ton, and 7,635 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle - price of ethylene was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle - price was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle - price was 806 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB) was 728.83 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF price in Taiwan was 278 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 763 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar. The market prices of pure benzene in the South, East, and North China markets were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,875 yuan/ton, and 5,830 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and 30 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 80.03%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points. The national styrene inventory was 193,950 tons, a decrease of 5,973 tons. The total inventory at the East China main port was 111,500 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons; the trade inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 55.88% (down 3.84 percentage points), 65.04% (down 0.96 percentage points), 52.4% (down 5 percentage points), 29% (down 1 percentage point), and 73.66% (down 0.43 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - From June 27th to July 3rd, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 366,600 tons, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 80.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 243,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term market trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5100 on the daily K - line of V2509 [3]. - In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing centralized maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Although some plants are planned to be put into production, the exit of backward production capacity driven by policies is expected to relieve supply pressure [3]. - It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July [3]. - The impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production. The lifting of the export restriction on ethane to China by the US may drive down the cost of the ethylene - based method in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5040 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 77 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1242330 lots, an increase of 267395 lots, and the open interest is 932779 lots, a decrease of 34594 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 23605 lots, an increase of 6984 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4822.31 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4860 yuan/ton, up 18.75 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67 yuan/ton; in the Northwest, it is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and in Southeast Asia is 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 37.31 tons, an increase of 1.14 tons. The inventory in East China is 33.03 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons, and the inventory in South China is 4.28 tons, an increase of 0.04 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters [3]. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 14.54%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.28%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.11%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.1%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 10, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in East China increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4830 to 4920 yuan/ton [3]. - From June 28 to July 4, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% compared with the previous period [3]. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% month - on - month to 59.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].

Group 1 - Glass futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the main contract reaching 1070.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.98% [1] - The daily melting capacity of float glass has increased to 158,400 tons, with a total inventory of 69.085 million heavy boxes across sample enterprises, indicating a historically high level [2] - The number of glass futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3 to 799 compared to the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - According to Donghai Futures, the glass daily melting volume has slightly increased week-on-week, but the real estate sector remains weak, leading to a decline in downstream processing orders [4] - Hualian Futures reported that two glass production lines resumed operations and one previously ignited line began production, resulting in a slight recovery in operating rates and weekly output [4] - Despite stable supply, the demand in the off-season is weakening, and while manufacturers' inventory remains high, there is an increasing expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity, which may support market confidence [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: On July 9, the main coke contract closed at 1,456 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.43%. The market logic has shifted from fundamental to expectation-based. Despite no significant improvement in fundamentals, the market is optimistic due to factors like anti-involution policies and the US extending tariff exemptions. The direct impact of the policy on coke may be limited as the coking industry recently completed capacity upgrades. It is expected that coke futures will maintain a strong and volatile trend [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 9, the main coking coal contract closed at 843.5 points, up 0.84% intraday. Although coking coal production has marginally recovered in July, with the emergence of favorable domestic and foreign policies and a state leader's visit to Shanxi, the coking coal market sentiment is optimistic, and the futures are expected to remain strong and volatile [6][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Policy Guidance**: President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that the coal industry should be upgraded from low - end to high - end, and coal products from primary fuels to high - value products. At the same time, a new energy system should be built by developing wind, solar, and hydrogen energy [8]. - **Online Auction**: On July 9, Mongolia's ETT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 63.2 US dollars/ton, and all 32,000 tons up for auction failed to sell [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, flat - price) | 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,200 yuan/ton | 2.56% | 3.45% | - 25.93% | - 39.39% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 940 yuan/ton | 1.08% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 40.51% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,230 yuan/ton | 1.65% | 1.65% | - 17.45% | - 41.15% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,280 yuan/ton | 2.40% | 2.40% | - 16.34% | - 38.16% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,456.0 | 2.43% | 1,466.0 | 1,428.0 | 27,440 | 11,051 | 48,461 | 381 | | Coking Coal | | 871.5 | 3.81% | 877.0 | 847.5 | 1,245,012 | 521,917 | 555,558 | 10,571 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over different time periods [14][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal over different time periods [18][21][23]. - **Other Charts**: Include charts on Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [25][28][29]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The market expects coke futures to maintain a strong and volatile trend, influenced by positive factors despite no significant improvement in fundamentals [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal futures are expected to remain strong and volatile due to favorable policies and optimistic market sentiment [6][32].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that the company, Aisuo Co., Ltd. (爱旭股份), has received approval for a private placement of funds, which is expected to alleviate its financial pressure significantly [1] - The company's asset-liability ratio reached 86.0% in Q1 2025, and the estimated fundraising of 3.5 billion RMB is projected to reduce this ratio by 9.6 percentage points [1] - Following a 40% increase in stock price since the rating upgrade on April 30, the report suggests that the current valuation is no longer attractive, leading to a downgrade to a neutral rating [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The report anticipates that over 40% of the company's ABC components will be sold in higher-priced overseas markets in Q2, which is expected to significantly reduce losses for the quarter [1] - Recent statements from central government officials emphasize the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, indicating a potential turning point for the photovoltaic supply side [1] Group 3: Stock and Valuation - The closing price of Aisuo Co., Ltd. is reported at 14.63 RMB, with a target price raised to 16.50 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 12.8% [1] - The report notes that further valuation improvement is contingent upon the implementation of substantial policies [1]