产能负载

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Q1毛利率受产能负载不均及工费影响,ASP转正
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-13 13:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of $202.9 million and $7.6 million, respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a decline of 24.2%, which was below market expectations [2]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to uneven capacity utilization across manufacturing plants, inefficiencies in production, and rising labor costs due to increased hiring and wage inflation [2][3]. - The manufacturing ASP (Average Selling Price) turned positive after five consecutive quarters of decline, with Q1 2025 manufacturing revenue and net profit at $132.8 million and $6.4 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a decline of 24.6% [3]. - The retail business saw a further decline in revenue in April 2025, with Q1 retail revenue and net profit at $51.07 million and $1.38 million, respectively, down 5.4% and 20.7% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 manufacturing gross margin, operating net margin, and net margin attributable to shareholders were 17.7%, 5.7%, and 4.8%, respectively, down 2.6, 2.7, and 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company expects to maintain revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at $8.69 billion, $9.09 billion, and $9.43 billion, while lowering net profit forecasts for the same period to $460 million, $520 million, and $560 million [5][7]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing, benefiting from a strong market share among top global sports brands and a vertically integrated supply chain [5]. - The company exports 29% to the U.S. and can cover tariffs through increased production capacity in Vietnam and Indonesia, with expectations of maintaining low to mid-single-digit growth in orders for the year [5]. - The report anticipates that despite short-term challenges from tariffs and inflation affecting consumer confidence, the company is likely to see growth driven by production expansion and positive price momentum [5].