裕元集团 20251121 摘要 裕元集团制造业务以运动户外鞋为核心，占比近 80%，主要客户包括耐 克、阿迪达斯等。2024-2025 年，前五大客户集中度提升，推动制造 业务实现个位数增长，预计 2026 年耐克复苏将加速制造业增长。 公司产能布局多元化，印尼产能占比 54%，越南 32%，确保对美出口 覆盖。通过绑定核心品牌强化产能优势，并优化产品和客户结构，提高 生产效率，释放增长弹性。 裕元集团零售业务优化门店数量，从约 1 万家减少到约 7 千家，同店销 售有所改善。受耐克库存压力影响，2024-2025 年零售环境下滑，预 计 2026 年筑底，2027 年有望恢复增长。 公司提高运营效率，加大电商和泛微店渠道占比，实现更高回报率。预 计在核心大客户补库周期及大中华区零售修复背景下，零售业务将在 2026 年进入筑底向上的阶段。 与同行相比，裕元集团出货量在 2019-2024 年间下降 5%，但单价上 涨 4%，收入保持稳健。公司毛利率偏低，费用较高，正通过动态调配 产能和精细化管理提升效率。 Q&A 裕元集团成立于 1998 年，是全球最大的运动制鞋厂商之一。公司主要有两大 业务：鞋类代工制 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 601.7 million USD and a net profit attributable to the parent of 27.9 million USD for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year decline of 1% and 16% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 195.7 million USD and 10.8 million USD, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5% and 27% respectively, with a negative shift in sales growth due to capacity transfer and tariff impacts [1] Financial Performance - Q3 manufacturing revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 143.4 million USD and 10.9 million USD, with year-on-year declines of 4.5% and 25.7% respectively [1] - By product category, revenue changes were as follows: outdoor sports shoes -3.54%, casual shoes +7.67%, and sandals/accessories -31.61% [1] - Capacity utilization, footwear shipment volume, and average price were reported at 92%, 6.3 million pairs, and 21.43 USD respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3 percentage points, -5.2%, and +3.38% [1] - Q3 manufacturing gross margin, operating net margin, and net margin attributable to the parent were 19.4%, 7.9%, and 7.6%, reflecting year-on-year declines of 1.2, 1.2, and 2.2 percentage points [1] Retail Performance - In Q3 2025, retail business revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 3.744 million USD and -0.17 million USD, with year-on-year declines of 6.4% and 342.86% respectively [2] - Physical store revenue decreased by 13% due to low foot traffic, with a 3.5% year-on-year decline in the number of direct-operated stores to 3,338 [2] - Overall channel revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, with online store revenue increasing by 8% and live streaming revenue more than doubling [2] - Q3 retail gross margin was 33.4%, down 11.3 percentage points year-on-year, while discounts remained stable [2] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a global leader in sports shoe manufacturing, benefiting from a strong market share among top sports brands and vertical integration to control the supply chain effectively [2] - The company exports 29% to the US, with production distribution in Indonesia (53%), Vietnam (32%), and mainland China (10%), allowing for coverage of tariff impacts through overseas capacity [2] - Short-term outlook indicates that while October manufacturing revenue remains negative, the worst period for the industry may have passed, with potential demand for replenishment ahead of major events like the Olympics [2] - Mid-term expectations suggest a recovery in orders driven by capacity expansion and price growth, with long-term potential for improved net margins compared to peers [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 8.218 billion, 8.547 billion, and 8.822 billion CNY, with net profit forecasts of 370 million, 410 million, and 450 million USD, corresponding to EPS of 0.23, 0.26, and 0.28 USD [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters, with revenue at $601.7 million and net profit at $27.9 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1% and 16% respectively [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to capacity transfer, reduced utilization rates, and tariff impacts [2][3] - Despite a negative growth in manufacturing revenue, the worst period for the industry is believed to be over, with potential recovery driven by upcoming events such as the Olympics [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company's revenue and net profit were $195.7 million and $10.8 million, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 5% and 27% [2] - Manufacturing revenue and net profit for Q3 were $143.4 million and $10.9 million, with year-on-year changes of -4.5% and -25.7% [3] - The manufacturing gross margin for Q3 was 19.4%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, but showed improvement compared to the previous quarter [3] Retail Performance - Retail revenue for Q3 was $3.744 billion, with a net profit of -$0.017 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.4% and a significant drop in physical store revenue [4] - The number of direct-operated stores decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, closing 110 stores compared to the end of the previous year [4] Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading global sports shoe manufacturer with a strong market share and vertical integration, allowing for effective control over the supply chain [5] - Short-term outlook suggests that while October manufacturing revenue remains negative, recovery is anticipated with potential inventory replenishment from brands [5] - Long-term projections indicate room for improvement in net profit margins compared to peers, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at $821.8 million, $854.7 million, and $882.2 million respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a slight increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 7.2% [2] - The company plans to invest approximately 23 billion Indian Rupees (around 27.6 million USD) to establish a production base in an economic zone in India, with preliminary construction already underway [2][3] - The company has a strong market position as a leading global sports shoe manufacturer, benefiting from vertical integration and a significant share of the global sports brand market [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 406 million USD and 171 million USD, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1% and a decline of 7.2% [2] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue and net profit of 203.1 million USD and 95 million USD, with a year-on-year decline of 0.35% in revenue but a 13.02% increase in net profit [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.4 HKD per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 47.77% and an annualized dividend yield of 6.4% [2] Manufacturing Insights - The manufacturing segment's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 were 279.8 million USD and 155 million USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2% and a slight decline of 0.3% in net profit [3] - The manufacturing gross margin and net margin were 17.7% and 5.5%, respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 and 0.4 percentage points [3] - The company has increased its workforce to 292,300 employees, a 5.5% year-on-year increase, with manufacturing staff growing by 6.6% [3] Retail Business Performance - The retail segment experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with figures of 915.9 million CNY and 188 million CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.26% and 44% [4] - The number of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.16% year-on-year to 3,408, with a closure of 40 stores since the end of 2024 [4] - Despite challenges, the company reported a robust growth of 16% in omni-channel revenue, with live streaming sales increasing by over 100% [4] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to face short-term order pressures due to tariffs and inflation, but medium-term growth is anticipated as production capacity is expanded and orders recover [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards to 8.218 billion USD, 8.546 billion USD, and 8.822 billion USD, respectively, with net profit forecasts revised to 373.67 million USD, 414.02 million USD, and 450.05 million USD [5][7] - The company maintains a favorable valuation with a projected PE ratio of 7, 6, and 6 for 2025-2027, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of $202.9 million and $7.6 million, respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a decline of 24.2%, which was below market expectations [2]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to uneven capacity utilization across manufacturing plants, inefficiencies in production, and rising labor costs due to increased hiring and wage inflation [2][3]. - The manufacturing ASP (Average Selling Price) turned positive after five consecutive quarters of decline, with Q1 2025 manufacturing revenue and net profit at $132.8 million and $6.4 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a decline of 24.6% [3]. - The retail business saw a further decline in revenue in April 2025, with Q1 retail revenue and net profit at $51.07 million and $1.38 million, respectively, down 5.4% and 20.7% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 manufacturing gross margin, operating net margin, and net margin attributable to shareholders were 17.7%, 5.7%, and 4.8%, respectively, down 2.6, 2.7, and 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company expects to maintain revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at $8.69 billion, $9.09 billion, and $9.43 billion, while lowering net profit forecasts for the same period to $460 million, $520 million, and $560 million [5][7]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing, benefiting from a strong market share among top global sports brands and a vertically integrated supply chain [5]. - The company exports 29% to the U.S. and can cover tariffs through increased production capacity in Vietnam and Indonesia, with expectations of maintaining low to mid-single-digit growth in orders for the year [5]. - The report anticipates that despite short-term challenges from tariffs and inflation affecting consumer confidence, the company is likely to see growth driven by production expansion and positive price momentum [5].