Group 1: Industry Inventory Trends - As of December 2025, the national passenger car inventory stands at 3.65 million units, a decrease of 140,000 units from the previous month and an increase of 600,000 units compared to December 2024, indicating a year-end inventory decline trend [1][18] - The inventory level supports a future sales period of 66 days, which is an increase of 20 days compared to December 2024's 46 days [1][31] - The industry inventory saw a peak of 3.94 million units in December 2022, followed by a gradual decline to 3.25 million units in April 2023, before rising again to 3.92 million units in November 2023 [25] Group 2: Retail Sales Performance - In December 2024, the national passenger car market retail sales reached 2.3 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 13% but a month-on-month increase of 3% [6] - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 23.78 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4% [6] - The retail sales growth rate fluctuated throughout the year, starting from a negative 12% in January to a positive 11% in June, followed by a gradual slowdown in the latter half of the year [4][6] Group 3: Export Trends - In December 2025, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) totaled 590,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 46% but a month-on-month decrease of 2% [11] - The total passenger car exports for the year reached 5.74 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [11] Group 4: Production Insights - December 2025 saw passenger car production at 2.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a month-on-month decrease of 10% [14] - The total production for the year amounted to 29.61 million units, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 10% [14] Group 5: Market Forecast and Sentiment - The market sentiment has shifted from optimism to caution, with a predicted optimism level of 14% for January, indicating a challenging outlook for manufacturers [23] - The current inventory level of 3.65 million units suggests significant pressure for inventory digestion in the coming months [23][31]

（原标题：崔东树：11月月末全国乘用车行业库存379万辆 去库时间升至61天） 智通财经APP获悉，崔东树发文称，由于10-11月车市表现一般，11月库存回升到379万辆的较高状态。 11月月末全国乘用车行业库存379万辆，较上月增38万辆，较2024年11月增59万辆，形成库存回升的旺 季备货特征。 根据2025年11月底的库存与未来3个月销量综合预估，现有库存支撑未来销售天数在61天，而 2024年11 月为48天，今年11月的总体库存压力相对较大。 从仅生产新能源车企业的库存变化特征分析看，随着反内卷的推动，行业库存9月降到62万辆，11月行 业库存上升到74万辆，较峰值库存降14万辆，但较10月增加12万辆。近期面临市场低于预期的风险，行 业库存总体压力较大。 1.近年狭义乘用车零售走势 5.全国乘用车市场预测指数与满意度指数 2024年乘用车国内零售前低后高，7-12月出现持续上升态势。2025年车市前低中高特征，1月由于春节 前置等因素较弱，今年国内车市零售累计增速从1月的负12%持续拉升到1-6月的11%，7-11月呈现高基 数的逐步减速特征，市场走出"前低中高后平"的走势。今年7-9月的零售同 ...