1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, in the second half of 2025, there is a split between short - term drivers and valuation. Although the growth rates of domestic production and demand will decline, there will still be a supply shortage. The price may decline, but the downward space is limited, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on dips. The resistance risks for price highs come from the squeeze on downstream processing profits and the movement of Russian aluminum ingots [3]. - For alumina, the driving force in the second half of 2025 remains weak, but the valuation is not high, and the mine - end interference is currently controllable. The alumina market in China and the world may be in surplus throughout the year, with the overseas market likely to be better than the domestic market in the second half of the year. There may be a new price rebound window in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [4]. - For cast aluminum alloy, in the second half of 2025, it will follow the Shanghai aluminum price unilaterally, and attention should be paid to seasonal price differences. The price of ADC12 may break through the 2024 high. The AO - AL industrial chain arbitrage can be appropriately concerned, and a long - AD short - AL position can be pre - arranged [6]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Aluminum Product Line Market and Main Driving Logic Review 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The expectation of "double - weak" production and demand in 2025 restricts the upward imagination of aluminum prices, but the actual situation is not weak, which supports the price. After the "4.3" and "5.12" tariff events, there were cross - border arbitrage opportunities. The overall price of Shanghai aluminum showed a convergent oscillation in the first half of the year [8][9][16]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Since the high point in Q4 2024, the price has almost been halved. In Q1 2025, the production was strong while the demand was weak, and the production - demand gap was significant. Capacity maintenance and mine - end disturbances provided phased boosts. After the large - scale maintenance and production reduction in March and April, the production - demand gap converged, and the inventory started to decline [19][27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price direction mainly follows electrolytic aluminum, but it was weaker than electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 due to demand suppression. The ADC12 - A00 spread showed a convergent trend, and there was an extreme spread in April [29]. 3.2 2025 H1 Core Question: The Mystery of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory and Future De - stocking 3.2.1 Aluminum Ingot and Aluminum Bar Social Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars was strong in H1 2025. The de - stocking time of aluminum ingots was earlier than that of the same lunar period last year, and the de - stocking slope of aluminum bars was faster. The high aluminum - water ratio and scrap - to - refined substitution were the driving factors. The estimated domestic primary aluminum apparent demand from January to June was close to 23.1086 million tons, with a year - on - year cumulative growth of 4.3% [32]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Photovoltaic Aluminum Consumption**: There was a "5.31" rush - installation in the photovoltaic market in H1 2025, but the turning point occurred in the middle of the year. The new global PV installation in 2025 is expected to be 520GW, with a growth rate of - 5%. The new domestic PV installation is expected to be 250GW, with a growth rate of - 10%. The PV aluminum consumption is expected to reduce the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate by 0.7 percentage points, with a positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points in H1 and a negative contribution of 0.9 percentage points in H2 [49][50]. - **Automobile Aluminum Consumption**: The automobile industry contributed positively to the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate in H1 2025. The global new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 20.78 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9%. The domestic new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 16.36 million, with a growth rate of 27.3%. The annual contribution to the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate is expected to be 1.2 percentage points, with 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points in H1 and H2 respectively [55][56]. - **Export Demand**: After the cancellation of export tax rebates and the impact of US tariffs, the export growth rate of aluminum products may still be positive. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 2.437 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The export to Mexico increased significantly, and the export of aluminum products to the US remained stable. The short - term "trade decoupling" between China and the US is not realistic [59][69]. - **Domestic Terminal Industry Consumption**: In the optimistic scenario, the demand increment of "foundation, infrastructure, and electricity" for primary aluminum in 2025 is about 1.584 million tons, boosting the demand growth rate by 3.5 percentage points. In the neutral scenario, the demand increment is about 1.019 million tons, boosting the demand growth rate by 2.3 percentage points [94][95]. 3.2.3 Supply Side - China's primary aluminum supply environment will remain in a low - growth state this year. Attention should be paid to subsequent supply - side policy disturbances and the scale of Russian aluminum imports [3]. 3.2.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese and global markets are expected to be in short supply in the second half of 2025. Attention should be paid to the production capacity in Southeast Asia in the future [21]. 3.3 Alumina: Mine - End Interference is Currently Controllable, and the Production - Demand Gap Should be the Dominant Factor 3.3.1 Mine End - China's import of Guinea bauxite accounts for more than 70%. The "5.16" event may have made the market overly sensitive, but future risks may increase [4]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The production - demand gap should be the dominant factor. The reasonable valuation of the AO disk can be observed from three dimensions: the cash or full - cost position at a bauxite price of $70 - 80 per ton, the resumption of production increment and its sustainability at the current spot profit, and the resistance of the import window opening position to the spot price [4]. 3.3.3 Re - exploration of the Profit Distribution Pattern between Electrolytic Aluminum and Alumina - The strategy of going long on electrolytic aluminum plant profits in H1 2025 has been realized, and it is not easy to reverse in H2 [33]. 3.4 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 - A00 and monthly spreads may follow seasonal rules, and the spreads are expected to widen in H2 [33]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In H2 2025, there is a split between short - term drivers and valuation. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [36]. - **Alumina**: The driving force is still weak, and the valuation is not high [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follow the Shanghai aluminum price unilaterally, and pay attention to seasonal price differences [37]. - **Structural Strategy**: Appropriate attention can be paid to the AO - AL industrial chain arbitrage, and there is profit space in the long - AD short - AL position [38].