Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap substitution, but there is strong support below, and a significant drop requires a macro black swan event with a low probability currently [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory situation, pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] - The idea of short - allocating zinc remains unchanged, and short positions can be established on rebounds. The internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [4] - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [9] - Lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week, and if affected by the macro environment and the price remains above 17,200, it may trigger a risk of a price - support cycle [11] - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to high - short opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [13] - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the leading enterprise continues to cut production and there is no obvious recovery in short - term production [17] - Carbonate lithium is expected to continue to be in a state of oversupply next week, with prices under upward pressure, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices showed a reverse V - shaped trend. The ADP and non - farm data were inconsistent, and the overall interest - rate cut expectation was unstable. The "Great Beauty" bill was implemented, and short - term broad fiscal policy may have a certain stimulating effect [1] - Domestically, inventory has increased, and the start - up rate has declined significantly. It is expected to continue to decline in the off - season from July to August, and copper consumption is restricted. The scrap - refined price difference has widened, and the scrap - refined substitution effect will weaken. A moderate inventory accumulation is expected from July to August [1] Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1] - In the inventory aspect, supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand [1] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. In July, the domestic TC has increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with June, and the imported TC has increased slightly. Some smelters are under maintenance, but new production capacities in the southwest and central China have been realized, and the zinc ingot output is expected to increase by more than 5,000 tons [4] - Domestically, demand has weakened seasonally, and the spot premium has basically leveled off. Overseas, European demand is weak, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees, and the spot premium has increased slightly [4] - Domestically, social inventory has increased, and overseas LME inventory has decreased after May, mainly because more overseas zinc ingots have flowed into China [4] Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production has remained at a high level, and nickel bean imports have increased in May. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the LME premium has strengthened slightly [6] - Overseas nickel plate inventory has remained stable, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports has been repealed, concerns about ore - end disturbances have eased [6] Stainless Steel - Since late May, some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron have remained stable [9] - Inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased slightly, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and been removed. Fundamentals are generally weak, and spot pressure has increased after demand has weakened [9] Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of waste batteries, and the low - profit situation has improved but the low - start - up rate remains [11] - On the demand side, battery inventory is high, the battery start - up rate has rebounded this week, and the market has expectations for the peak season. The scrap - refined price difference is - 50, and the willingness to sell recycled lead has increased but the receiving is poor [11] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires further negotiation. The processing fee at the ore end is low, and smelting profits are inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi have cut production, and those in Yunnan are struggling to maintain [13] - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. Domestic inventory has increased, and overseas consumption has continued to rush to install, but the inflection point of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging [13] Industrial Silicon - This week, Hesheng's Xinjiang production area continued to cut production, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Overall, due to the large - scale production cut by the leading enterprise, the monthly output in July and subsequent months is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction [17] - The basis has strengthened rapidly, stimulating the downstream's speculative and inventory - replenishment sentiment. The market expectation has shifted from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. If production does not recover significantly in the short term, the industrial silicon futures price is expected to oscillate [17] Carbonate Lithium - This week, carbonate lithium prices rose due to the "anti - involution" policy. Spot transactions are mainly based on the 09 - contract price, and the difference in prices between upstream and downstream has led to average transactions. Downstream enterprises settle at a later point, and there is inventory dumping at a reduced basis [18] - High prices have stimulated the resumption of production of some production lines in Sichuan, and salt lakes are continuing to increase production. Some factories have maintenance plans, and external - procurement projects have sufficient hedging profits and are in production [18] - Downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see state, only maintaining safety inventory. Overall, inventory has increased this week. The willingness to deliver to the warehouse has improved, and the number of registered warehouse receipts has increased [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap - refined substitution, but there is strong support below the price [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, pay attention to the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - The zinc short - allocation idea remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio contraction [6]. - Stainless steel is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [9]. - Lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week, and there may be a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17200 due to macro - influences [11]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to high - short opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [13]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the top enterprises continue to cut production and there is no obvious recovery in short - term production [17]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, supply is expected to be in surplus next week, and the "anti - involution" policy may drive up sentiment [17]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, the copper price showed a reverse - V trend. Macro - data was mixed, and the domestic market started to accumulate inventory in the off - season. The refined - scrap price difference widened, and a moderate inventory accumulation is expected from July to August [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and the short - term fundamentals are acceptable [1]. Zinc - The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. The short - allocation strategy remains unchanged [4]. Nickel - Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and overseas nickel - plate inventory remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Pay attention to the price - ratio contraction opportunity [6]. Stainless Steel - Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to be weak and volatile [9]. Lead - The lead price rose this week. Supply - side issues include weak scrap production and tight waste batteries. Demand - side has high battery inventory. It is expected to oscillate in a certain range next week [11]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by mine issues, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Top enterprises are cutting production, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The price rose this week due to policy - driven sentiment. Supply is expected to be in surplus in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long term [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a reverse V - shaped trend this week. With the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data, the overall interest - rate cut expectation fluctuated. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly, with imports from January to May contributing to the growth. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Pay attention to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4]. - Lead prices rose moderately this week. Supply - side issues persist, demand is still weak overall, and prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the Myanmar situation and domestic production cuts, demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11]. - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly [16]. - Nickel supply is high, demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18]. - Stainless steel supply has seen partial production cuts, demand is mainly for essential needs, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices had a reverse V - shaped trend. Macro factors included the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data and the implementation of the "Big Beautiful" bill. Fundamentally, domestic inventory increased, and consumption was suppressed. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to adjust in the third - quarter off - season [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes online and some smelters resume production after maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas. The strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4] Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. Supply - side issues such as low scrap battery supply and high - cost raw materials persist. Demand is still weak overall, mainly for essential needs. Prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and domestic production cuts. Demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - In July, production is expected to decline due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate. The market expectation has shifted from inventory build - up to inventory reduction [15] Lithium Carbonate - This week, prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of major projects [16] Nickel - Supply is high as pure nickel production remains at a high level and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18] Stainless Steel - Supply has seen partial production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for essential needs. Cost is stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19]

Group 1: Copper - This week, copper prices showed a reverse V-shaped trend. The ADP and non-farm payroll data diverged, causing the overall interest rate cut expectation to fluctuate. Trump's "Great Beauty" Act was implemented, and short-term broad fiscal policies may have a certain stimulating effect [1]. - Domestically, inventory has increased, and the start-up rate has declined significantly. It is expected to continue to decline during the off-season from July to August, and overall copper consumption by downstream industries has been somewhat suppressed [1]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened this week, weakening the substitution effect. It is expected that there will be a moderate inventory increase from July to August [1]. - With the S232 investigation pending, there is still strong support below the copper price. A significant drop would require a macro black swan event, which is currently unlikely. During the off-season in the third quarter, the copper price is expected to have some adjustment room due to inventory accumulation and the decline in the refined-scrap substitution effect [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1]. - In terms of inventory, supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July. The short-term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low-inventory situation, attention should be paid to inter-month spreads and reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [1]. Group 3: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. In July, the domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton compared to June, and the imported TC increased slightly. Some smelters are undergoing maintenance in July, but new production capacities in the southwest and central China have been realized, and the zinc ingot output is expected to increase by more than 5,000 tons month-on-month [4]. - On the demand side, domestic demand has weakened seasonally. The spot premium in North China has turned to a discount, and those in East and South China have basically leveled off. Overseas, demand in Europe is weak, but some smelters face certain production resistance due to processing fees, and the spot premium has increased slightly [4]. - Domestically, social inventory has increased oscillatingly. Due to more factory pick-ups at the current price, the inventory accumulation of social inventory is slightly slower than expected. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased oscillatingly since May, mainly because more overseas zinc ingots have flowed into China [4]. - The strategy remains to short zinc and sell on rallies. The long domestic and short foreign arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. Group 4: Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year-on-year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of demand for scrap batteries. Although the low profit has improved this week, the operating rate remains low. The willingness of recyclers to sell at a high price has weakened [7]. - From April to June, the operation rate of concentrate mines increased, but the supply of domestic and foreign concentrates has tightened, and the TC is in a mess [7]. - On the demand side, battery inventory is high. This week, the battery operating rate rebounded, and the market has expectations for the peak season. The refined-scrap spread is -50, the willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has increased, but the reception is poor. There is speculation about cancelled LME warehouse receipts [7]. - From April to July, overall consumption during the off-season is weak, and orders only meet the rigid demand. This week's price increase is due to speculation about the improvement in battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts, but in reality, downstream buyers only replenish their inventories for rigid demand at high prices [7]. - The profit of recycled lead has improved, but the operating rate has not increased. The willingness of scrap battery owners to sell at a high price is strong, and the price support behavior is weaker than in the previous upward cycle. The willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has improved, but the reception is poor. The refined-scrap spread is -50, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 40, mainly maintaining long-term orders [7]. - It is expected that lead will oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week. If the macro situation affects the lead price to remain above 17,200, it may trigger the risk of a price support cycle. In July, primary lead supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is weak [7]. Group 5: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the short-term resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, still needs negotiation. The processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province, China, have reduced production, and those in Yunnan Province are still struggling to maintain production. In June, the output of tin ingots decreased by more than 1 kt month-on-month [9]. - Overseas, except for Wa State, supply disruptions have basically subsided. The import volume from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in May exceeded expectations, mainly due to traders' inventories [9]. - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the growth rates of the terminal electronics and photovoltaic industries are expected to decline significantly. Domestic inventory has increased oscillatingly. Overseas consumption rush continues, but the LME inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging [9]. - On the spot side, the supply of small-brand tin ingots remains tight. Most of the exchange inventory is high-priced Yunzi-brand tin ingots, and downstream buyers have no strong willingness to pick them up [9]. - In the short term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline. It is expected that supply and demand will remain weak in the first half of the year. June and July may be the key stages to verify whether the tightness of tin ore will be transmitted to the tightness of tin ingots, and the bottom has strong support [9]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities after the maintenance period [9]. Group 6: Industrial Silicon - This week, Hesheng's Xinjiang production area continued to reduce production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Overall, due to the significant production reduction of leading enterprises, the production in July and subsequent months is expected to decline from the previous expectation of a significant increase, and the supply-demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction [13]. - If Hesheng continues to maintain the production reduction, the spot price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Previously, against the background of the futures price hitting a new low, the basis strengthened rapidly, stimulating the long-suppressed speculative and replenishment sentiments of downstream industries. The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts and non-standard products has been significant, and the spot price has been strong. The unexpected production reduction of leading enterprises has a significant marginal impact on the supply-demand balance, and there is a resumption of production in the downstream polysilicon industry [13]. Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices increased due to the promotion of the "anti-involution" policy. Spot transactions are mainly based on the 09 contract price. The price difference between upstream and downstream has led to average transactions. Downstream buyers settle at a later point in time, and there is inventory dumping at a reduced basis [13]. - The high price has stimulated the resumption of some production lines in Sichuan, and salt lakes continue to increase production. However, some factories have maintenance plans, and the hedging profit of externally purchased projects is abundant and production is ongoing [13]. - Downstream buyers are highly cautious and only maintain a safety inventory. Overall, inventory has increased this week. The willingness to deliver goods to the warehouse has improved, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased [13]. - In the medium and long term, there are many expansion projects for ore and lithium salt production capacities. If the operating rates of leading mining and smelting integrated enterprises do not decrease significantly, the lithium carbonate price will still fluctuate weakly. In the short term, downstream demand is weak, and the reduction in new energy vehicle consumer loans has not improved demand as expected [13]. - The lithium ore price has rebounded, and downstream buyers are cautious and replenish their inventories only for rigid demand. At the current price rebound, the profit of externally purchased smelters has improved, and they have resumed production. The profit of self-owned mines has increased, and the market clearance pace may be delayed [13]. - In the future, the supply elasticity is high. Large factories in Sichuan and previously maintained and technically improved enterprises are resuming production. Attention should be paid to the resumption time of the Jiuxiaowo project of CATL. Demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply will continue to exceed demand next week, leading to inventory accumulation, which will put upward pressure on the price. The fundamental oversupply situation has not been significantly reversed. However, the "anti-involution" competition policy may boost sentiment, and risks need to be guarded against [13]. Group 8: Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of nickel beans increased in May. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has strengthened slightly [15]. - On the inventory side, overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, while domestic inventory has decreased slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports has been abolished, concerns about supply disruptions in the ore market have eased. The short-term real fundamentals are average, and opportunities for narrowing the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [15]. Group 9: Stainless Steel - From the supply side, some steel mills have been forced to reduce production since late May. On the demand side, demand is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [17]. - In terms of inventory, inventory has increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and been de-stocked. The overall fundamentals remain weak. After the demand fades, the pressure on the spot market increases, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the expected "double - weak" production and demand of electrolytic aluminum limit the upside potential, but the actual situation is not weak and supports the price. The macro - variable of tariffs is反复, leading to an oscillating and convergent state of Shanghai aluminum prices in the first half of the year [8][9][10] - The supply and demand of alumina in the first quarter showed a significant differentiation of strong production and weak demand. The over - capacity situation led to a mainstream idea of short - selling at high prices [12][13] - The price of cast aluminum alloy mainly follows electrolytic aluminum. In the first half of the year, there was a certain positive correlation, but the correlation coefficient was relatively small. The price was affected by the fundamentals, showing a pattern of supply increase and demand decrease [18] - The apparent demand growth rate of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the first half of the year was lower than that of the same period last year, but still exceeded market expectations. The drivers were high aluminum - water ratio, scrap - to - primary substitution, and positive contributions from demand - side sectors such as photovoltaics, automobiles, exports, and power grids [20][21][22] - The demand growth rate of China's primary aluminum in 2025 is likely to be lower than that in 2024. The "new consumption" sectors such as photovoltaics and automobiles will have different impacts on demand in the first and second halves of the year [26] - The export demand of aluminum products may be positive. Although affected by factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates and US tariffs, market - based adjustment actions support the export demand [34][36][56] - The expected growth rate of China's primary aluminum demand for the whole year is between 3.3 - 4.5%, with a decline in the second half of the year. The supply side is in a low - speed supply environment, and the domestic and global markets are expected to be in short supply in the second half of the year [78][79][85] Group 3: Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 2025 First - Half Aluminum Product Line Market and Main Driving Logic Review - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The expected "double - weak" production and demand limit the upside, but the actual situation supports the price. The "Sell in May" market of LME aluminum was advanced, and tariff events led to cross - border arbitrage [8][9][11] - **Alumina**: The price almost halved from the high point. In the first quarter, production was strong and demand was weak. Capacity maintenance and ore - end disturbances provided phased boosts [12] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed electrolytic aluminum, but was weaker due to demand suppression. The ADC12 - A00 spread showed a trend of first widening and then narrowing [15][17][18] Core Issues in the First Half of the Year: Where Did the Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory Go and How Much Will It Be De - stocked? - The apparent demand growth rate of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was lower than that of the same period last year but exceeded expectations. The drivers were high aluminum - water ratio, scrap - to - primary substitution, and positive contributions from demand - side sectors [20][21][22] Demand - Side Analysis - **Photovoltaic Use of Aluminum**: In the first half of the year, there was a rush to install, but the inflection point came in the middle of the year. The growth rate of global and domestic photovoltaic installations is expected to decline, and China's photovoltaic use of primary aluminum is expected to decrease [25][26][29] - **Automobile Electrification and Lightweight Use of Aluminum**: The whole - year demand growth rate is expected to be close to 1 percentage point, with a decline in the second half of the year. New energy vehicle sales are expected to increase, contributing to the demand for primary aluminum [30] - **Export Demand**: Although affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates and US tariffs, the export demand may be positive. Market - based adjustment actions support the demand, and the impact of US tariffs on the export structure is significant [34][36][45] - **Domestic Terminal Industry Consumption**: In neutral and optimistic scenarios, it can contribute a demand growth rate of 2.3 - 3.5 percentage points. Infrastructure, power grid, and real estate investments have different impacts on aluminum demand [77] Supply - Side Analysis - China's primary aluminum production capacity is expected to increase slightly in 2025, with a production growth rate of about 2.3% for the whole year. The import volume of Russian aluminum ingots has remained high [79][80] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance - In the domestic market, under the neutral scenario, there is an expected shortage of about 19.3 tons for the whole year. The global market is expected to be short of 77 tons in 2025, and the shortage may expand in the second half of the year [85][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, in the second half of 2025, there is a split between short - term drivers and valuation. Although the growth rates of domestic production and demand will decline, there will still be a supply shortage. The price may decline, but the downward space is limited, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on dips. The resistance risks for price highs come from the squeeze on downstream processing profits and the movement of Russian aluminum ingots [3]. - For alumina, the driving force in the second half of 2025 remains weak, but the valuation is not high, and the mine - end interference is currently controllable. The alumina market in China and the world may be in surplus throughout the year, with the overseas market likely to be better than the domestic market in the second half of the year. There may be a new price rebound window in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [4]. - For cast aluminum alloy, in the second half of 2025, it will follow the Shanghai aluminum price unilaterally, and attention should be paid to seasonal price differences. The price of ADC12 may break through the 2024 high. The AO - AL industrial chain arbitrage can be appropriately concerned, and a long - AD short - AL position can be pre - arranged [6]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Aluminum Product Line Market and Main Driving Logic Review 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The expectation of "double - weak" production and demand in 2025 restricts the upward imagination of aluminum prices, but the actual situation is not weak, which supports the price. After the "4.3" and "5.12" tariff events, there were cross - border arbitrage opportunities. The overall price of Shanghai aluminum showed a convergent oscillation in the first half of the year [8][9][16]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Since the high point in Q4 2024, the price has almost been halved. In Q1 2025, the production was strong while the demand was weak, and the production - demand gap was significant. Capacity maintenance and mine - end disturbances provided phased boosts. After the large - scale maintenance and production reduction in March and April, the production - demand gap converged, and the inventory started to decline [19][27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price direction mainly follows electrolytic aluminum, but it was weaker than electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 due to demand suppression. The ADC12 - A00 spread showed a convergent trend, and there was an extreme spread in April [29]. 3.2 2025 H1 Core Question: The Mystery of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory and Future De - stocking 3.2.1 Aluminum Ingot and Aluminum Bar Social Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars was strong in H1 2025. The de - stocking time of aluminum ingots was earlier than that of the same lunar period last year, and the de - stocking slope of aluminum bars was faster. The high aluminum - water ratio and scrap - to - refined substitution were the driving factors. The estimated domestic primary aluminum apparent demand from January to June was close to 23.1086 million tons, with a year - on - year cumulative growth of 4.3% [32]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Photovoltaic Aluminum Consumption**: There was a "5.31" rush - installation in the photovoltaic market in H1 2025, but the turning point occurred in the middle of the year. The new global PV installation in 2025 is expected to be 520GW, with a growth rate of - 5%. The new domestic PV installation is expected to be 250GW, with a growth rate of - 10%. The PV aluminum consumption is expected to reduce the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate by 0.7 percentage points, with a positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points in H1 and a negative contribution of 0.9 percentage points in H2 [49][50]. - **Automobile Aluminum Consumption**: The automobile industry contributed positively to the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate in H1 2025. The global new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 20.78 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9%. The domestic new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 16.36 million, with a growth rate of 27.3%. The annual contribution to the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate is expected to be 1.2 percentage points, with 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points in H1 and H2 respectively [55][56]. - **Export Demand**: After the cancellation of export tax rebates and the impact of US tariffs, the export growth rate of aluminum products may still be positive. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 2.437 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The export to Mexico increased significantly, and the export of aluminum products to the US remained stable. The short - term "trade decoupling" between China and the US is not realistic [59][69]. - **Domestic Terminal Industry Consumption**: In the optimistic scenario, the demand increment of "foundation, infrastructure, and electricity" for primary aluminum in 2025 is about 1.584 million tons, boosting the demand growth rate by 3.5 percentage points. In the neutral scenario, the demand increment is about 1.019 million tons, boosting the demand growth rate by 2.3 percentage points [94][95]. 3.2.3 Supply Side - China's primary aluminum supply environment will remain in a low - growth state this year. Attention should be paid to subsequent supply - side policy disturbances and the scale of Russian aluminum imports [3]. 3.2.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese and global markets are expected to be in short supply in the second half of 2025. Attention should be paid to the production capacity in Southeast Asia in the future [21]. 3.3 Alumina: Mine - End Interference is Currently Controllable, and the Production - Demand Gap Should be the Dominant Factor 3.3.1 Mine End - China's import of Guinea bauxite accounts for more than 70%. The "5.16" event may have made the market overly sensitive, but future risks may increase [4]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The production - demand gap should be the dominant factor. The reasonable valuation of the AO disk can be observed from three dimensions: the cash or full - cost position at a bauxite price of $70 - 80 per ton, the resumption of production increment and its sustainability at the current spot profit, and the resistance of the import window opening position to the spot price [4]. 3.3.3 Re - exploration of the Profit Distribution Pattern between Electrolytic Aluminum and Alumina - The strategy of going long on electrolytic aluminum plant profits in H1 2025 has been realized, and it is not easy to reverse in H2 [33]. 3.4 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 - A00 and monthly spreads may follow seasonal rules, and the spreads are expected to widen in H2 [33]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In H2 2025, there is a split between short - term drivers and valuation. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [36]. - **Alumina**: The driving force is still weak, and the valuation is not high [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follow the Shanghai aluminum price unilaterally, and pay attention to seasonal price differences [37]. - **Structural Strategy**: Appropriate attention can be paid to the AO - AL industrial chain arbitrage, and there is profit space in the long - AD short - AL position [38].