Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the expected "double - weak" production and demand of electrolytic aluminum limit the upside potential, but the actual situation is not weak and supports the price. The macro - variable of tariffs is反复, leading to an oscillating and convergent state of Shanghai aluminum prices in the first half of the year [8][9][10] - The supply and demand of alumina in the first quarter showed a significant differentiation of strong production and weak demand. The over - capacity situation led to a mainstream idea of short - selling at high prices [12][13] - The price of cast aluminum alloy mainly follows electrolytic aluminum. In the first half of the year, there was a certain positive correlation, but the correlation coefficient was relatively small. The price was affected by the fundamentals, showing a pattern of supply increase and demand decrease [18] - The apparent demand growth rate of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the first half of the year was lower than that of the same period last year, but still exceeded market expectations. The drivers were high aluminum - water ratio, scrap - to - primary substitution, and positive contributions from demand - side sectors such as photovoltaics, automobiles, exports, and power grids [20][21][22] - The demand growth rate of China's primary aluminum in 2025 is likely to be lower than that in 2024. The "new consumption" sectors such as photovoltaics and automobiles will have different impacts on demand in the first and second halves of the year [26] - The export demand of aluminum products may be positive. Although affected by factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates and US tariffs, market - based adjustment actions support the export demand [34][36][56] - The expected growth rate of China's primary aluminum demand for the whole year is between 3.3 - 4.5%, with a decline in the second half of the year. The supply side is in a low - speed supply environment, and the domestic and global markets are expected to be in short supply in the second half of the year [78][79][85] Group 3: Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 2025 First - Half Aluminum Product Line Market and Main Driving Logic Review - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The expected "double - weak" production and demand limit the upside, but the actual situation supports the price. The "Sell in May" market of LME aluminum was advanced, and tariff events led to cross - border arbitrage [8][9][11] - **Alumina**: The price almost halved from the high point. In the first quarter, production was strong and demand was weak. Capacity maintenance and ore - end disturbances provided phased boosts [12] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed electrolytic aluminum, but was weaker due to demand suppression. The ADC12 - A00 spread showed a trend of first widening and then narrowing [15][17][18] Core Issues in the First Half of the Year: Where Did the Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory Go and How Much Will It Be De - stocked? - The apparent demand growth rate of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was lower than that of the same period last year but exceeded expectations. The drivers were high aluminum - water ratio, scrap - to - primary substitution, and positive contributions from demand - side sectors [20][21][22] Demand - Side Analysis - **Photovoltaic Use of Aluminum**: In the first half of the year, there was a rush to install, but the inflection point came in the middle of the year. The growth rate of global and domestic photovoltaic installations is expected to decline, and China's photovoltaic use of primary aluminum is expected to decrease [25][26][29] - **Automobile Electrification and Lightweight Use of Aluminum**: The whole - year demand growth rate is expected to be close to 1 percentage point, with a decline in the second half of the year. New energy vehicle sales are expected to increase, contributing to the demand for primary aluminum [30] - **Export Demand**: Although affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates and US tariffs, the export demand may be positive. Market - based adjustment actions support the demand, and the impact of US tariffs on the export structure is significant [34][36][45] - **Domestic Terminal Industry Consumption**: In neutral and optimistic scenarios, it can contribute a demand growth rate of 2.3 - 3.5 percentage points. Infrastructure, power grid, and real estate investments have different impacts on aluminum demand [77] Supply - Side Analysis - China's primary aluminum production capacity is expected to increase slightly in 2025, with a production growth rate of about 2.3% for the whole year. The import volume of Russian aluminum ingots has remained high [79][80] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance - In the domestic market, under the neutral scenario, there is an expected shortage of about 19.3 tons for the whole year. The global market is expected to be short of 77 tons in 2025, and the shortage may expand in the second half of the year [85][86]