Core Insights - China's population has experienced negative growth for three consecutive years, raising concerns about its economic implications and social structure [1][3][5] Population Trends - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that in 2024, the birth rate dropped to 7.56 million while the death rate reached 11.32 million, resulting in a natural growth rate of -0.27% [3][5] - The total fertility rate has fallen to 1.07, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 [3][5] Economic Implications - The decline in population is expected to lead to a labor shortage and increased pressure on the pension system, with projections indicating that by 2040, the elderly population will constitute 30.4% of the total population [5][10] - The economic impact of negative population growth could reduce GDP growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points for every five years of continued decline, potentially dropping GDP growth below 1% by 2070 [8][10] Factors Influencing Birth Rates - High costs of raising children are a primary deterrent, with estimates indicating that raising a child to university graduation can cost an average of 2.12 million yuan in first-tier cities [7][8] - Housing costs are also a significant barrier, with average prices in first-tier cities nearing 10.8 million yuan per square meter, making it difficult for families to afford adequate living space [7][8] Policy Responses - The Chinese government has initiated various policies to encourage higher birth rates, including financial incentives for families and extended maternity leave [10][11] - Housing policies have been adjusted to provide lower down payment requirements for families with multiple children [11] International Comparisons - Japan's experience with negative population growth offers lessons for China, as it faces similar challenges but on a larger scale [9][10] - Successful international policies, such as France's family subsidies and Sweden's dual-income parenting model, highlight the importance of comprehensive support systems [14][15] Societal Perspectives - There is a need for a shift in societal attitudes towards child-rearing, as many families feel pressured to provide high-quality education and living conditions, which discourages larger families [15][16] - Promoting gender equality in the workplace and supporting women's career advancement are crucial for improving birth rates [13][15] Long-term Outlook - While the challenges posed by negative population growth are significant, they also present opportunities for economic transformation, particularly in automation and the "silver economy" related to aging populations [16][17] - A coordinated effort from the government, businesses, and society is essential to address the population crisis and ensure sustainable development [17][18]

教授预言2026年房价迎来暴涨 2024年，当大家对未来房价何去何从迷茫不已时，某高校经济学专业教授发文称：预计2025年房价将开始上涨，2026年将开始暴涨。 教授自信满满，预测房价上涨的逻辑： 市场供需发生变化，房子的供给会大量减少，但需求端的能耐力将达到极限，未来市场将出现供不应求的局势，明年房价就会开始上涨，后年甚至出现暴 涨。 最后，他还不忘补上一句话："涨跌都是市场规律，不以人的意志为转移，再怎么黑，再怎么反人性的压制需求，最终都斗不过规律的作用，加上政策上 的助力，中国房价想不涨都难。" 当年，此话一出，不少人点赞评论： "2024年底，国务院副总理刘鹤重申"房地产是国民经济的支柱产业"，说明政策转向：从"房住不炒"到"支柱产业"回归，预示着房价迎来反弹概率上升。" 还有网友说："随着土地供应收缩，再加上货币化拆迁安置，外资回流，需求复苏，那些观望者可能跟随着买房节奏，需求或被引爆，价格上涨不是没可 能。" 此外，还有人表示，"美国失业率上升，随着2025年底美联储降息周期开启，预计国内房价也会随之企稳反弹，经济教授的预言或成真。" 现实如何？暴涨预言面临多重挑战 老百姓越来越人间清醒，且不说暴 ...