这正常吗 尽管生活成本危机持续发酵， 澳洲房地产市场却在2025年年末迎来了21世纪以来第二轮 "世纪级" 的价格暴涨， 几乎复制了疫情期间的房市盛况。 Ray White首席经济学家Nerida Conisbee表示： 这是一次 "世纪难得一遇" 的涨势，而且与生活成本的困境并不矛盾。 她指出： 房价暴涨的背后，是多重因素叠加而成的 "完美风暴" ： 住房供应严重不足、人口快速增长、鼓励首次置业的政府政策， 还有建筑行业积压项目严重，以及几次降息的刺激。 她特别提到： 像珀斯、布里斯本这样的城市，受到强劲的州际移民推动， 而建筑滞后和政府投资进一步加剧了住房竞争。 推动市场走高的还有大量首次购房者的涌入。 尤其是政府推出的5%首付购房支持计划，有效激活了低价市场的买气。 但与此同时，市场并未提供足够的新房供应， 导致供需严重失衡，从而进一步推高房价。 Conisbee指出： 虽然政策刺激了购房需求，但没有相应提升供应水平， 这种错配直接导致了房价的上扬。 她也坦言： 建筑成本高、劳动力短缺等问题使得增加供应并不容易， 即使放松规划限制，也无法立刻解决问题。 很多热区是因为新增就业机会而吸引人口，并非只是风景 ...

Core Viewpoint - A professor predicts that housing prices will start to rise in 2025 and experience a significant surge in 2026 due to changes in market supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The professor believes that a substantial reduction in housing supply will lead to a situation where demand exceeds supply, resulting in rising prices starting next year [2]. - The statement from the Vice Premier of the State Council, Liu He, emphasizes that real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy, indicating a policy shift that may increase the likelihood of a rebound in housing prices [4]. Group 2: Challenges to Price Surge - The aging population and declining number of young people are leading to a significant drop in housing demand, which may hinder any potential price surge [7]. - Recent policy measures have aimed to stimulate demand not for a price surge but for long-term stable development of the real estate market, with increased supply of affordable housing for low-income groups [9]. - High household debt levels, currently around 70%, combined with stagnant income growth and rising unemployment, are reducing the purchasing power of ordinary families, making it difficult to support a price surge [11]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - As of July, only 5 out of 70 major cities saw year-on-year increases in new home prices, while no cities reported increases in second-hand home prices, indicating a divided market [13]. - Core urban areas, particularly first-tier and strong second-tier cities, are showing resilience with some price increases, while third and fourth-tier cities are experiencing price declines due to weak industries and population outflow [15]. Group 4: Recommendations for Households - Households are advised to avoid speculative real estate investments and to purchase homes that align with their financial capabilities, focusing on factors like location and amenities to ensure better value retention [17]. - Diversifying asset allocation is recommended to mitigate risks, rather than concentrating all investments in real estate [19]. - The potential for significant price increases in the short term is low, and caution is advised in interpreting the professor's predictions [21].