人民币实际有效汇率

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报告:我国经济增长保持韧性 下半年扩大内需是关键
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-27 14:48
Core Viewpoint - The key to maintaining economic growth resilience in the second half of the year lies in expanding domestic demand, with fiscal expenditure being crucial [1][2][5]. Economic Performance - In the second quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly weaker than the first quarter but still above the annual target of 5% [2][5]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for the second quarter was 3.9%, with the GDP deflator index remaining negative for nine consecutive quarters, indicating significant demand pressure [2][5]. Structural Analysis - Industrial production remains robust, with industrial added value growth consistently exceeding GDP growth [5]. - Exports have shown resilience, particularly to regions outside the U.S., despite a notable decline in exports to the U.S. [5]. - Retail sales growth has improved due to policies supporting trade-in programs, while fixed asset investment has weakened compared to the first quarter [5]. - The real estate market has shifted from signs of stabilization back to contraction, with new housing sales and second-hand home prices declining [5]. Recommendations for Expanding Domestic Demand - Suggestions include utilizing public budget funds and considering the issuance of an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to meet annual fiscal expenditure growth targets [1][5]. - Emphasis on urban renewal and government-led public investment as a breakthrough point for expanding domestic demand [5]. - Proposals to further lower policy interest rates to guide market rates downwards and stimulate both supply and demand to help the real estate market recover [5]. Currency and Exchange Rate Insights - The report discusses the importance of achieving a reasonable valuation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate, emphasizing that it should not be excessively high or low [6][7]. - The depreciation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate since the first quarter of 2022 is attributed to persistent domestic demand shortages [6][7]. - Recommendations include implementing timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies to address demand deficiencies and maintaining a flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism to avoid excessive distortions [7].
下半年扩内需仍紧迫,CF40报告:这与人民币汇率息息相关
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-27 13:20
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the need for further counter-cyclical policies to achieve the annual economic growth target in China, given the pressures from tariffs, real estate, and limited fiscal capacity. It emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and its impact on the RMB exchange rate [1][2][4]. Economic Growth and Domestic Demand - China's GDP for the first half of the year was approximately 66.05 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The report indicates that fiscal measures, such as bond issuance and spending, have effectively supported economic growth in the first half of the year [2] - It suggests that the economic momentum weakened in the second quarter compared to the first, necessitating stronger counter-cyclical policies to address increasing demand pressures [2][3] Fiscal Policy Recommendations - The report recommends utilizing public budget funds and considering the issuance of an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to meet the annual budget growth target [2][3] - It notes that the government plans to issue 7.6 trillion yuan in bonds from June to December, which is lower than the previous year's issuance [2] Domestic Demand Expansion Strategies - The report identifies urban renewal and transformation as a critical area for expanding domestic demand, suggesting it as a viable point for government-led public investment [3] - It advocates for lowering policy interest rates to guide market rates downwards, thereby improving inflation expectations and balancing private sector savings and investments [3] - The report emphasizes the need for simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides to revitalize the real estate market [3] RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The report discusses the undervaluation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate, which has depreciated over 15% since early 2022, despite improvements in export competitiveness [4][5] - It highlights that the nominal effective exchange rate's depreciation and the decline in domestic price levels relative to trade partners contributed significantly to this depreciation [5] - The report stresses that the comparison of expected returns on RMB assets versus foreign assets is crucial for determining the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [5][6] RMB Stablecoin Development - The report outlines structural changes in the RMB exchange rate, including a shift in expectations and a changing interest rate environment, which may support RMB internationalization [7] - It discusses various options for advancing RMB stablecoin trials, emphasizing the need for onshore stablecoins due to limited application scenarios for offshore stablecoins [8][9] - The report suggests leveraging China's manufacturing and industrial chain advantages to expand offline applications for stablecoins [8]
实际汇率三年累贬15%,人民币资产和外汇资产的配置选择题
和讯· 2025-07-22 10:39
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 20th anniversary of the "7·21" exchange rate reform, highlighting the significant changes in the RMB exchange rate since 1994, including a nearly 60% appreciation from 2005 to early 2022, followed by a depreciation of over 15% since 2022, indicating a deviation from reasonable valuation [1][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate has shown a trend of appreciation until 2022, but has since weakened significantly, reaching its lowest level in nearly a decade by March 2025 [1][4]. - The depreciation of the RMB is attributed to a combination of nominal effective exchange rate decline and a decrease in China's price level relative to trade partners, with the latter accounting for two-thirds of the decline [5][6]. - Despite a record trade surplus, the actual depreciation of the RMB has not been offset, indicating that lower prices have not translated into expected competitiveness in international markets [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Policy Recommendations - Demand insufficiency is identified as the primary reason for the RMB's depreciation, exacerbated by price stickiness and market coordination failures [6][7]. - The article notes that while economic growth has shown resilience, investment growth has slowed, particularly in real estate, which has seen a significant decline [8][9]. - CF40 suggests that expanding domestic demand should be the core focus of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year, with fiscal spending being a critical lever to stimulate total demand [10][11]. - The projected fiscal budget for 2025 indicates a significant increase in public spending, which could effectively boost total demand if achieved [10][11]. - Urban renewal is highlighted as a suitable area for government-led public investment to stimulate economic activity [12].