当前中国股市虽然在最近一周出现了一些波动，但整体上仍处于上升趋势。尽 管外部环境存在不确定性，如伊朗局势等，但这些因素不足以阻断中国股市内 部的上升势头。中国股市的稳定和螺旋式上升主要依赖于内部的不确定性减少， 这也是当前市场稳定的重要基础。因此，金融板块、成长板块以及部分周期品 仍然是重点看好的方向。 中国股市有哪些内部趋势性的变化？ 中国股市目前有几个重要的内部趋势性变化。首先，经济结构正在发生积极转 变，新商业机会不断涌现，这些并不是短期现象，而是长期趋势。其次，利率 下降导致无风险率降低，投资股票的机会成本下降，使得居民和民间资本入市 进入历史转折点，这也不是短期现象。此外，经济政策变得更加及时、合理， 地缘政治风险会催化避险因素，推动黄金价格上涨，但如果地缘冲突是 系统性的，并进一步扩散，则黄金可能因流动性问题而短期下跌，需关 注伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的行动。 5 月煤炭进口量同比减少 17.7%，预计未来一段时间国内煤炭进口量将 继续收缩，但随着旺季到来及气温回升，预计 6 月底煤价有望触底回升， 建议关注龙头企业。 同时资本市场制度性改革不断推进，例如即将召开的陆家嘴论坛，更加重视投 资者回报。这些 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The overall market outlook remains optimistic despite external uncertainties, with the belief that the upward trend in the Chinese stock market is not yet over [1][2] - Investors' understanding of the economic and international situation is comprehensive, and new technologies and consumer opportunities are emerging, indicating a structural positive shift [1][2] - The reduction in risk-free interest rates has lowered the opportunity cost of investing in stocks, marking a historical turning point for long-term and retail investors [1][3] Group 2: Economic and Investment Trends - Economic expectations are undergoing a positive transformation, which is not a short-term phenomenon, with the stock market's expectations reflecting a range rather than a single point [2] - The focus on supply-side innovation is driving demand creation, with capital expenditure in both new and old economies expected to recover and enter a phase of differentiated growth by 2025 [2][3] Group 3: Currency and Asset Valuation - The stability of the RMB is expected to play a significant role in the revaluation of Chinese assets, as the global economic order is being reshaped and the dollar's credibility is declining [3] - The decline in discount rates is leading to a market environment where emerging technologies are the main focus, with financial sectors and high-dividend stocks benefiting from the lower risk-free rates [3] Group 4: Sector Recommendations - Recommendations include financial and high-dividend sectors such as banks, brokers, and highway operators, which are expected to benefit from the domestic decline in risk-free rates [3] - Emerging technology sectors, particularly in internet, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology, are highlighted as key growth areas due to intensified competition between China and the US [3] - The cyclical consumption sector is also expected to see a revival, with a focus on domestic supply-demand tightness in cyclical products and new consumption driven by supply [3] Group 5: AI and Market Dynamics - The current macroeconomic environment and industry trends are reminiscent of the 2012-2014 period, where technology drove market performance, particularly in Hong Kong stocks [5][6] - The rapid development of AI applications is expected to accelerate commercialization, with Chinese companies poised to benefit significantly from this trend [6][7] - Hong Kong's tech sector, particularly in software applications, is expected to outperform due to its higher market capitalization in this area compared to A-shares [7]