近期非农就业数据的大幅下修加剧了美联储对经济增长的担忧，而通胀的尾部风险正在下降。我们认为美国 货币政策正在从对通胀的关注转向对联储双重目标（就业和通胀）的平衡。因此我们预计美联储将从9月份开 始降息25个基点，随后在今年12月和明年3月再降息两次，累计降息75个基点。美联储有望落实降息，现在正 是布局优质债券以锁定具有吸引力的收益率的潜在机会，以应对利率的进一步下跌。 由于实际收益率仍处于高位，美联储有很大的降息空间。即使降息三次，政策利率仍将保持限制性。同时， 经济增长不确定性和美联储领导层变动也可能带来更多的降息空间。我们维持对美国国债、美元投资级债券 和高收益债券的中性观点，因其收益率仍颇具吸引力。同时，我们认为优质债券是重要的投资组合风险分散 工具，可以对冲经济增长放缓带来的宏观风险。 如何应对？ 策略一：在利率下降之前锁定当前具有吸引力的收益率。 策略二：延长久期偏好，因长短利差正处于三年来最高水平。 策略三：利用优质债券对冲增长放缓的风险 数据来源：彭博，汇丰私人银行及财富管理。截至2025年8月15日，过去数据不代表未来表现。 我行相关主题所有在售代客境外理财计划-香港互认基金、海外基金产品列 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 2. Report's Core View - The core view is to provide the latest price changes of international crude oil futures and relevant news, and give an investment suggestion of short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $1.07 per barrel, a 1.69% decline, at $62.35 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed down $0.81 per barrel, a 1.21% decline, at $65.79 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan per barrel, a 0.87% decline, at 480.90 yuan per barrel [1] Trend Strength - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view. The value range of trend strength is [- 2,2] [2][3] API Inventory Data - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 2417000 barrels, expected - 1587000 barrels, and the previous value was 1519000 barrels. There are also data on API Cushing crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, refined oil inventory, heating oil inventory, crude oil imports, and refined oil imports [2] International News - Trump is arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Macron suggests the meeting be held in Geneva, Switzerland. Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán discussed Ukraine's EU accession negotiations and Budapest as a possible meeting place. The EU Commission spokesperson said to continue pressuring Russia, and NATO and EU accession issues should be decided by Ukraine. Trump believes all indicators show that interest rates need to be significantly lowered. Indian Prime Minister Modi met with Wang Yi and said that India and China are partners rather than rivals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations for at least two cuts remaining this year, despite a potential rise in inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation and Rate Cut Dynamics - The report indicates that even with a modest month-over-month CPI increase of 0.1%, the year-over-year CPI could rise to approximately 2.9% by the end of the year, up from 2.3%-2.4% in the first half [1][4]. - The combination of rising inflation and falling interest rates is historically rare, occurring only 16% of the time since 1973 [1][8]. - The analysis suggests that using the core PCE price index may show an earlier upward trend in year-over-year inflation [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historically, the scenario of rising inflation with falling rates has occurred only once since 1973, during the period from late 2007 to early 2008, when the Fed cut rates despite rising inflation due to signs of weakness in the housing and labor markets [8]. - In this context, the dollar typically depreciates, with an average decline of 1.6% over six months following the rate cut, and the trend of dollar weakness often continues for one to three months after the initial cut [9][11]. - The current year is projected to see the largest annual decline in the dollar since 1999, with a strong correlation to the dollar's performance in 2007 [9].

摩根大通固定收益全球主管米歇尔：购买10年期美债的理由在于，利率在某个时候会下降。 ...

智通财经7月18日电，美联储古尔斯比表示，未来一年利率有望大幅下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee suggests that interest rates are expected to decline significantly over the next year [1] Group 1 - The anticipated decrease in interest rates could have a substantial impact on borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [1] - A lower interest rate environment may stimulate economic growth by encouraging spending and investment [1] - The Federal Reserve's stance indicates a shift in monetary policy that could influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that there may be a potential decrease in interest rates, suggesting a favorable economic outlook [1] - Yellen described the current inflation as "very mild," which could further support the case for lower interest rates [1] Economic Outlook - The possibility of declining interest rates could stimulate economic growth and investment opportunities [1] - Mild inflation rates may lead to increased consumer spending and business investments, positively impacting various sectors [1]

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Core Viewpoint - Senator Warren expresses a desire to see interest rates decrease, attributing the current high rates to actions taken by former President Trump [1] Group 1 - Senator Warren, a member of the Democratic Party, is advocating for lower interest rates [1] - The statement implies that political actions, specifically those by Trump, have hindered the potential for interest rate reductions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, indicated that interest rates are expected to "gradually decline" in the future [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's current stance suggests a shift in monetary policy, potentially impacting borrowing costs and economic growth [1] - The statement reflects a broader trend among central banks to adjust interest rates in response to changing economic conditions [1] - Market participants may interpret this guidance as a signal for future investment strategies, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors [1]