Group 1: Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of brand communication and responsibility for real estate companies during the festive season of October, which includes National Day, Mid-Autumn Festival, and Chongyang Festival [5] - Structural risks in typical cities' inventory highlight the urgency of governance and the necessity for precise policy measures to resolve inventory issues [7] - New housing supply remains stable at low levels in November, with the main urban areas focusing on improved products as the primary supply [9] Group 2: Market Trends - In October, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 253 billion yuan, indicating a low sales performance [12] - The investment amount in land acquisition decreased by 30% compared to the average monthly figures of the previous three quarters, with over half of the companies not acquiring land [12] - The total financing volume in October showed a month-on-month decline, although there was a slight year-on-year increase [12] Group 3: Land Transactions - In Fuzhou, two residential land parcels were successfully acquired by local state-owned enterprises, with a total transaction value of 3.4 billion yuan for three residential plots [10] - The land transaction scale showed a month-on-month increase, with a total building area of 840,000 square meters transacted, reflecting a 15% rise [13] Group 4: Policy Developments - The "15th Five-Year Plan" recommendations were officially released, outlining six key tasks for promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [14] - The plan includes exploring the establishment of a waiting list system for affordable housing and a system for selling commercial housing as completed properties [14] Group 5: Upcoming Land Auctions - In November, 20 key cities plan to auction 169 residential land parcels with a total starting price of 88.9 billion yuan, indicating significant market activity [15]

Core Viewpoint - The new housing supply in November remains at a low level, with a slight month-on-month increase of 5% across 28 cities, but a significant year-on-year decline of 46% [2][5]. Supply Overview - In November, the estimated new housing supply across 28 cities is 5.18 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5% but a year-on-year decrease of 46% [5]. - The supply in first-tier cities shows a month-on-month recovery, primarily driven by Beijing and Guangzhou, with a month-on-month increase of 14% but a year-on-year decline of 40% [6]. - The supply in second-tier cities remains flat, but there is a growing divergence among cities, with some cities experiencing significant increases while others see continued declines [6][7]. - In third and fourth-tier cities, supply has reached a low point, with a month-on-month increase of 61% but a year-on-year decrease of 34% [7]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is characterized by a focus on improvement needs, with 28% for basic needs, 55% for improvement, and 17% for high-end products [11]. - Nearly 80% of cities rely on the main urban area for supply, with a significant portion of cities showing a dominant supply of improvement products [11][14]. - The distribution of supply across urban areas shows that 70% is concentrated in the main urban area, 23% in the near suburbs, and 7% in the far suburbs [14]. Market Expectations - The market is expected to see a decline in new housing transaction volumes, with many cities shifting from growth to decline in transaction expectations [17][18]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 32%, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10 percentage points [19]. - The second-hand housing market continues to experience a downward trend, with limited appeal to price-sensitive buyers due to the overall improvement in new housing products [19]. City-Specific Insights - In November, cities like Beijing and Guangzhou are expected to see a month-on-month increase in new housing supply, while cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing significant declines [20]. - The expected new housing transaction volumes for November show a mixed outlook, with some cities like Shenzhen and Wuhan showing signs of weak recovery, while others like Zhengzhou and Fuzhou are expected to see continued declines [20].

Core Viewpoint - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects in the commodity housing sector continues to rise, reaching 7.23% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024. However, the development trends vary across different city tiers, with only second-tier cities showing an upward trend while first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities experience a decline [2][3][4]. Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects has reached a new high of 7.23%, surpassing the 2024 level. The quarterly breakdown shows a first-quarter rate of 5%, a second-quarter surge to 8.7%, and a third-quarter rate of 7.12% [4][6]. - The distribution of new entrusted construction projects in 2025 indicates that second-tier cities dominate, accounting for 84% of the projects, while only 1% are located in first-tier cities [6][12]. Group 2: First-Tier Cities - Among first-tier cities, Guangzhou leads with the highest number of opened entrusted construction projects, totaling 9, followed by Shanghai with 5, and Shenzhen and Beijing with 3 and 2, respectively [8][10]. - The majority of entrusted construction projects in first-tier cities are located in non-core areas, with Guangzhou's projects primarily in districts like Nansha and Zengcheng [10][11]. Group 3: Second-Tier Cities - The penetration rate in second-tier cities has reached 9.89%, an increase of nearly 2 percentage points compared to 2024, making it the only tier to see significant growth in 2025 [12][13]. - Cities like Suzhou and Tianjin have penetration rates exceeding 30%, with Suzhou at 38.5%, indicating a strong focus on second-tier cities by construction enterprises [14][16]. Group 4: Third- and Fourth-Tier Cities - The penetration rate in third- and fourth-tier cities has slightly decreased to 6.15%, down 1.67 percentage points from 2024, largely influenced by individual city performance [18][19]. - Despite the current decline, there are long-term opportunities in third- and fourth-tier cities, particularly in regions like the Pearl River Delta [21][24].