编者按：今年以来，全球金属价格普遍上涨，白银涨幅超过170%，黄金涨幅超过70%，铂涨幅达 133%，钯涨幅为95%，沪铜涨幅为37%，等等。全球贸易摩擦、地缘政治风险和基本面矛盾共振，已经 重塑了整个行业格局。期货日报推出"破译金属新主线"栏目，全面梳理金属"牛市"脉络，敬请关注。 2025年四季度，贵金属价格加速上涨，屡创历史新高。对市场参与者而言，这不仅是多重力量共振带来 的历史性机遇，更是对交易体系与风险控制能力的严峻考验。在波澜壮阔的行情中，如何既不踏空趋 势，又能规避极端波动带来的风险，是当下的核心命题。 驱动逻辑：三大因素共同作用 2025年的贵金属牛市，广度、深度与驱动逻辑的复杂性远超历史上单纯的周期性上涨，这是三大因素共 同作用的结果。 第一，全球货币信用体系重塑与逆全球化浪潮的共振。本轮贵金属行情的宏观基础，已不仅仅是去美元 化叙事，而是货币信用稀释与地缘格局重构的共同结果。后疫情时代，海外央行资产负债表的扩张导致 全球长期流动性泛滥，货币购买力相对实物资产的贬值成为长期趋势。另外，全球贸易保护主义抬头， 标志着效率优先的全球化时代正在经历重构。在新秩序中，黄金作为核心"无对手盘资产"，价 ...

编者按：今年以来，全球金属价格普遍上涨，白银涨幅超过170%，黄金涨幅超过70%，铂涨幅达133%，钯涨幅为95%，沪铜涨幅为37%，等等。全球贸 易摩擦、地缘政治风险和基本面矛盾共振，已经重塑了整个行业格局。期货日报推出"破译金属新主线"栏目，全面梳理金属"牛市"脉络，敬请关注。 2025年四季度，贵金属价格加速上涨，屡创历史新高。对市场参与者而言，这不仅是多重力量共振带来的历史性机遇，更是对交易体系与风险控制能力的 严峻考验。在波澜壮阔的行情中，如何既不踏空趋势，又能规避极端波动带来的风险，是当下的核心命题。 驱动逻辑：三大因素共同作用 一是"锚定效应"的失效与价格发现的跃迁。行情初期，交易者常受"锚定效应"影响，将心理价位锁定在历史高点，导致对新的利多因素反应迟钝。然而， 一旦价格突破关键锚点，旧有参照系失效，市场进入"价格发现新区间"，这是市场摆脱旧有束缚、积极寻找新平衡点的表现。这种重新定价的过程往往伴 随着高溢价，解释了为何突破后的上涨行情最为迅猛——市场在用速度弥补认知的滞后。 二是"处置效应"的逆转与流动性的强化。在震荡市中，交易者倾向于"过早卖出盈利头寸"，即"处置效应"。但在单边加速行情中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the misinterpretation of market adjustments as opportunities, emphasizing that many retail investors are still trapped in the illusion of a bull market despite significant underperformance among stocks [1][2][6] - A report from CITIC Securities indicates that only 62% of stocks outperformed the index in the first eleven months of 2025, suggesting that 4 out of 10 stocks are quietly lagging behind [2] - The article discusses the phenomenon of retail investors mistakenly believing that all adjustments in a bull market are buying opportunities, leading to significant losses during market downturns [2][4] Group 2 - The article describes a "cat-and-mouse game" in the market, where the ability to predict policy changes is crucial for investment success, contrasting the current environment with past market behaviors [6][10] - Data shows that stocks favored by insurance capital have outperformed the market by an average of 17 percentage points over the past five years during year-end rallies, indicating a disconnect between retail investors and institutional movements [6][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative analysis in understanding market dynamics, suggesting that modern investors need to focus on data-driven insights rather than speculative trends [10][12] Group 3 - The article identifies three key traits of successful investors who can navigate through market fluctuations: sensitivity to policy shifts, precision in tracking capital flows, and a deep understanding of their cognitive limitations [13] - It suggests that the ability to interpret market language through quantitative data is more valuable than traditional research methods, highlighting the evolution of information asymmetry in financial markets [10][12] - The author shares a personal insight about the importance of a long-term quantitative system in understanding real market transactions, reinforcing the need for data literacy among investors [12][13]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent financing news of AI video company Aishi Technology, which completed a 100 million yuan B+ round of financing, marking the second capital injection within a month [1] - Aishi Technology's growth trajectory is described as exemplary, achieving over 100 million users within a year and a tenfold increase in revenue post-commercialization, attracting top-tier institutions like Fosun Ruijing and Tongchuang Weiye [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of quantifiable growth in attracting capital, with Aishi Technology's clear user metrics of 16 million MAU and 40 million USD ARR being particularly appealing to investors [2] Group 2 - The article discusses common misconceptions among investors during market recoveries, including the "illusion of guaranteed increases" and "rebounds delusion," highlighting that not all stocks follow the market trend [5][6] - It points out that market dynamics are constantly shifting, with no sector maintaining a consistent winning streak, as evidenced by the electronic sector's mixed performance [6] - The article uses the case of the liquor ban in May 2025 to illustrate that market movements often precede institutional actions, indicating that smart money had exited before the policy was announced [8][10] Group 3 - The case of Nuotai Biotech, which saw a 25% increase after being designated as ST, is presented as a logical outcome of prior institutional accumulation, similar to the data indicators observed before Aishi Technology's financing [12] - The article concludes that in an information-overloaded environment, only quality data can reveal the underlying truths of the market, reinforcing the belief that a robust data system acts as a high-precision microscope [12]

Group 1 - The 2025 Third Asian Accounting Scholars Forum successfully concluded at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), attracting top accounting scholars from various prestigious universities [2] - The forum focused on hot topics in the accounting field, facilitating in-depth academic dialogue and sharing of cutting-edge research [2] Group 2 - Professor Zhang Tianyu, head of the accounting field at CUHK (Shenzhen), welcomed guests and highlighted the achievements of the accounting discipline at the school, emphasizing the importance of collaboration for future academic forums [5] - The forum featured discussions on various research papers, including the impact of salary history bans on corporate innovation and the role of government support in yield spreads for Chinese state-owned enterprises [8][12] Group 3 - Research by Professor Yuan Tao from Nanjing University indicated that salary history bans negatively affect corporate innovation by weakening incentives for male inventors and increasing labor market frictions [8] - A study by Professor Lü Yuanzhen from Peking University found that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have lower yield spreads compared to non-state-owned enterprises (NSOEs), influenced by government support, with local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) showing even lower spreads in the short term [12] Group 4 - Professor Zhou Xiaolu from CUHK discussed the effects of AI democratization on trading inequality, revealing that the introduction of AI tools like ChatGPT has narrowed the information processing gap between retail investors and short sellers [16] - Research by Professor Lin Wenwei from CUHK indicated that informed investors hedge their stock positions before Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, creating observable price pressure that can predict future market returns [20] Group 5 - Professor Zhang Xinyi from Sun Yat-sen University explored how representational bias drives speculative trading in financial markets, leading to price distortions based on investors' misconceptions about stock issuance sources [22] - A study by Professor Si Yi from Xi'an Jiaotong University revealed that managers often disclose positive hiring information before insider selling, aiming to sell securities at higher prices, although similar behavior was not found before insider buying [26]